Scott Walker will learn that there is a heavy price for union busting. If it can be done in progressive Wisconsin today can it be done across American tomorrow?

It is just June yet, but I am sure it feels like November in Wisconsin, the picturesque Midwestern state where governor Scott Walker is sought to be recalled. It is only for the third time in US history that   a recall election for a governor is happening. (A recall election—also called a recall referendum or representative recall—is a procedure by which voters can remove an elected official from office through a direct vote before his or her term has ended. In some states, a recall triggers a simultaneous special election.)

The atmosphere is electric, the election is close and it has got the nation’s attention; but it is also very divisive. Public opinion in the state is split right down the middle. Jacob Carrel of Madison, Wisconsin, who I spoke to told me that a opinion poll over the weekend shows 49% of the electorate in favour of governor Scott Walker and 49% in favour of Tom Barrett—the Democrat challenger—with 2% undecided. But opinion polls are aplenty and The Huffington Post opinion poll puts governor Scott Walker slightly ahead.

Going ahead, both Democrats and Republicans have rolled out their heavyweight campaigners—Bill Clinton was in Milwaukee for a raucous rally over the weekend to gather the faithful.  Bill Clinton is enormously popular in Wisconsin and had carried it during both his elections. He is probably the most important Democrat campaigner today after President Obama. Many Republican governors have visited the state but neither President Obama nor Mitt Romney has gone there so far. The probable reason is that neither of them can afford to be seen backing a loser and nobody knows who that will be on Tuesday.

The importance of Wisconsin to President Obama is clear. He won Wisconsin by 16% points in 2008 and the last Republican presidential candidate to win it was Ronald Reagan, although George W Bush came close to winning on both occasions when he ran for president. But any calculation of 270 electoral votes for President Obama includes Wisconsin.

(Each elector gets one vote. Thus, a state with eight electors would cast eight votes. There are currently 538 electors and the votes of a majority of them—270 votes—are required to be elected. Since Electoral College representation is based on congressional representation, states with larger populations get more Electoral College votes.)

The governor’s recall election has suddenly put Wisconsin in play and Mitt Romney is setting up more offices there. It should also be mentioned that though President Obama carried Wisconsin in 2008 during the mid-terms in 2010 the Republicans swept the polls when because of the Great Recession many of the incumbents were defeated. Some other polls show Scott Walker, the Republican governor, leading in some polls  but the Democratic challenger ground game is supposed to be in tip-top shape and ultimately it may all come down to turnover.  

It is believed that a smaller turnover will favour the Republicans whereas a large turnover will favour the Democrats. In the election of the governor in 2010, $37 million were spent but the recall is likely to cost approximately $60 million. Jacob also tells me that the Republicans have probably outspent the Democrats by a margin of 12:1 and whereas most of the money obtained by the Republicans is from outside the state most of the money obtained by the Democrats is from within the state. Cities like Madison, the capital, which is a University town as also Milwaukee which is quite industrial are Democratic strongholds whereas the rural areas are Republican strongholds.

So what is all the fuss about and why the recall? Governor Scott Walker has followed the principles of fiscal conservatism—he has sought to rein in the fiscal deficit and make spending cuts reduce taxes. But more than that he has taken on a principal Democratic constituency the trade unions and has sought to weaken them if not destroy them. And this is particularly ironic as the first government workers union was established in Madison in 1932. He has prevented Unions of Western Public Workers from collective bargaining and the issues subject to collective bargaining are now restricted. He has upped their pension contribution of the workers and he has stopped automatic contributions to the unions. This is more than conservatism. This is union busting. And the Democrats had hit back and mounted a fierce challenge by organizing a recall.

Scott Walker will learn whichever way the election goes that there is a heavy price for union busting. But this has also made Scott Walker a poster boy of conservatism in America. If it can be done in progressive Wisconsin today can it be done across American tomorrow?

But will it affect President Obama in November. That is not certain. While the Republican base is highly charged, so are the Democrat followers. Further, nothing like the amount being spent in Wisconsin per capita will be spent in November and an economist survey has that unemployment in Wisconsin fell to 6.7% the last year, much below the national average. This might help the incumbent Scott Walker in the recall but will help President Obama in November as he is the incumbent.

I will end with what Jacob told me. He said a friend’s mother who is 80 years old is campaigning door-to-door for Tom Barrett the Democratic challenger. That is how high the stakes are.

(Harsh Desai has done his BA in Political Science from St Xavier's College & Elphinstone College, Bombay and has done his Master's in Law from Columbia University in the city of New York. He is a practicing advocate at the Bombay High Court.)