Tuesday’s Market Preview: Cautious opening likely
Moneylife Digital Team 02 November 2010

The local market is likely to open on a cautious note as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce its mid-term monetary policy review today. This apart, the US Federal Reserve will announce fresh stimulus measures on Wednesday to prop up sagging economy, weighed down by rising unemployment.

The US markets ended flat with a mixed bias on Monday ahead of the US mid-term elections and the Fed announcement. Markets in Asia were trading mostly lower this morning, awaiting the US “quantitative easing” announcement and the outcome of the Bank of Japan policy meeting. The SGX Nifty was down 17.50 points at 6,138.50 from its previous close of 6,156 on Monday.

The Indian market opened firm on Monday, tracking positive cues from across the Asian region and upbeat manufacturing output numbers for September, as announced by the HSBC Markit Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI). Sensex suffered a setback as trading was halted at noon due to “technical glitches.” However, the Nifty continued its north-bound journey amid a fair degree of choppiness.
 
The Sensex, which resumed trading at 2.30pm, recouped and touched the day’s high but declined to its pre-closure levels to trade in a narrow range and close near those figures.  The Sensex closed 323.29 points (1.61%) higher at 20,355. The Nifty settled at 6,117, a gain of 100 points (1.66%) over its previous close.

The US market closed steady overnight awaiting the results of the mid-term elections and the Federal Open Market Committee announcement, due on Wednesday. It is widely believed that the Fed will announce plans to buy government securities worth $500 billion in a bid to enhance growth and curb unemployment. Earlier in the day, stocks were up on positive manufacturing reports from across the globe and a rise in US construction spending.

The Dow closed 6.13 points (0.06%) higher at 11,124. The S&P 500 added 1.12 points (0.09%) to 1,184. The Nasdaq shed 2.57 points (0.10%) to 2,504.

Markets in Asia were mostly lower in early trade this morning as investors awaited the outcome of the US and Japanese central banks’ meetings this week. The Bank of Japan said last week that the bank’s board advanced the next session to 4th and 5th November, following a meeting by the US Federal Reserve on 2nd and 3rd November.

The Shanghai Composite was down 0.36%, the Hang Seng was down 0.07%, Jakarta Composite was down 0.44%, KLSE Composite was down 0.13%, Nikkei 225 was down 0.10%, Seoul Composite was down 0.08% and Taiwan Weighted was down 0.14%. On the other hand, the Straits Times gained 0.32% this morning. The SGX Nifty was down 17.50 points at 6,138.50 from its previous close of 6,156 on Monday.

High inflation which is pushing cost of merchandise production is affecting competitiveness of Indian exports, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday.

"Higher inflation differential between India and major trading partners is a source of pressure on the competitiveness of Indian exports. Containing inflation, thus, is important even for improving the external balance position," the RBI said, ahead of its monetary policy review on Tuesday.

It said overall inflation, which stood at 8.62% in September, is "above the comfort level".

During the April-September 2010-11 period, exports increased by 28% to $103.64 billion compared to the same period previous fiscal, according to an official data.

Though the growth this fiscal is impressive, it has come on a low base of comparison of the last fiscal, when the global trade had hit a new low under the recessionary conditions in several markets.

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