The average rainfall is expected to be 98% of the normal long period average of 89 cm during the four-month season starting 1st June to 30th September
The crucial south-west monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast on 3rd June, a slight delay that could be attributed to the cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal.
“Southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on rd June,” chief monsoon forecaster, India Meteorological Department (IMD), D Sivananda Pai said. Pai admitted that it was a slight delay than the usual onset date of 1st June.
The delay could be attributed to cyclone Mahasen that is churning the Bay of Bengal packing wind speed of 90 kmph.
It is expected to make landfall near Chittagong coast in Bangladesh on Thursday night.
“Cyclonic activity weakens monsoon flow. It takes some time to reorganise,” Pai said when asked about reasons for the delay in onset over Kerala.
While Mahasen is expected to delay rains over Kerala, the strong cyclonic winds are driving monsoon flow over Andamans where the onset is expected by Friday.
IMD has predicted that monsoon this year is most likely to be normal. Quantitatively, the average rainfall is expected to be 98% of the normal long period average (LPA) of 89 cm during the four-month season starting 1st June to 30th September.
LPA is the average of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole from 1951 to 2000.
“This year, under the influence of tropical cyclone Mahasen currently located over the central Bay of Bengal, low level cross equatorial monsoon flow has appeared over south Andaman Sea and adjoining south Bay of Bengal,” the weather office said.
Andaman and Nicobar Islands usually receive monsoon showers between 10th May and 2th May.