At the mention of the name Barton Biggs, my first recollection is the cover of
the Forbes magazine of July 1993. He posed in it dramatically, dour-faced and
wearing the attire of a bear, complete with paws from which nails stuck out.
The cover theme was how Biggs was bearish on the US economy and markets under
the presidency of Bill Clinton. He was quoted as saying: “We want to get
our clients’ money as far away from Bill and Hillary Clinton as we can.
The President is a negative for the US market. I’m embarrassed that I
voted for him and contributed money to his campaign.” The S&P500 was 450 at
that time. By March 2000, after Clinton’s two terms were over, it was
The second recollection I have of Biggs was an article in Fortune (possibly)
where he was quoted recounting how he romped across China and India to discover
that these were absolutely fantastic growth markets to invest in. He had led
Morgan Stanley to a major expansion in emerging markets in the early 1980s.
When Morgan Stanley became the first foreign company in January 1994 to launch
a fund in India, Biggs was roped in for a teleconference (a novelty at that
time) with the press at the office of the Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd. In
September, the Sensex was over 4,400. By 2003, it was 2,900. Morgan
Stanley’s fund became a poster boy for all that’s wrong with the
fund business – more hype and overselling than performance. Morgan Stanley did
not launch a fund for 14 years after that – until 2008. The monster bull market
of 2003-08 eventually salvaged the performance of the first fund.
These two events play on my mind when I hear the name Barton Biggs, though
these may have been isolated occurrences. After all, he has worked for 30 years
at Morgan Stanley, where he started the research department and chaired the
investment management division for years. His later years in the firm were
spent as the chief strategist. In fact, at various times between 1996 and 2003,
the Institutional Investor magazine ranked Biggs as the top US investment
strategist and then global strategist.
Interestingly, in 2001, he pronounced that “hedge-fund mania now grips
the US and Europe” and “is rapidly assuming all the classic
characteristics of a bubble.” But, in 2003, Biggs retired from Morgan and
launched his own hedge fund, Traxis Partners, with Madhav Dhar also of Morgan.
In 2006, he wrote Hedgehogging, his memoir-cum-treatise on the
“never-ending search for investment acorns.” This is a new edition of
It is hard to categorise this work. It is mostly an endless whine about how
institutional investors behave (rude, short-term, ruthless and often mindless).
The same litany – of how it is so hard to raise money and how it is so hard to
keep, whether you have had a few down years or a few great years – appears
repeatedly throughout the book. The rest of the book is a mish-mash of history
(Bismark’s astute timberland investment was a new thing for me),
investment concepts (value vs growth, features of asset classes, behavioural
finance) and short sketches of many hedge fund managers. Several of them are
obsessive, fiercely competitive, somewhat deranged while the best ones are
wise, well-read and well-travelled. Biggs has substituted their real names to
avoid legal and social awkwardness, but that leaves you dissatisfied. A few
years ago, Biggs wrote about a plumber who was too busy day-trading shares to
fix his pipes. It turned out that Biggs had invented the story!
Hedge funds are a fashionable idea now and are the most favoured destination
for finance students, never mind that, in 2004, 1,000 new hedge funds were
formed and about 1,000 closed. Besides, every few years some star or the other
‘blows up’. Biggs reveals the intellectual slime and commercial grime
behind their high-profile hedge funds. Biggs struggled to raise money for his
fund, narrating his harrowing experience at Morgan Stanley’s famous
hedge-fund conference at The Breakers in Palm Beach. He found “Germans
with bulging eurobellies… mingle with bloated Arabs in pale suits and white
shirts, their handshakes as cool and clammy as snakeskin. Former investment
bankers exchange distinguished lies with portly ex-diplomats, permanently
deformed by self-importance…Vastly rich investors with private jets, homes in
three climates and Botox-smoothed foreheads name-drop and talk about their golf
games... Wealthy divorcées and widows with artificial brightness in their
unpouched eyes and hard, chiselled faces and tucked stomachs and bottoms, work
the crowd. Are they looking for a man or a hedge fund? They have smiles for you
like cold leftovers.”
Biggs and Dhar faced a series of rejections in their appeal to raise money and
Biggs appears more like a bewildered and anguished philosopher in search of
fairness in a wild, winner-take-all contest. This is more surprising because he
was born with a silver investment spoon – his father was a wealthy investor who
gave Biggs and his brothers an early start with a generous bunch of shares.
This book is a good read for those keen to know how hedge funds work, but Biggs
surely had observed much more in his 50 years on the Wall Street, the bulk of
which was spent at a mainline financial firm with its own large share of
scandals and funny actions all over the world, including India. Pity he has not
written a book about them. – Debashis Basu
Miles Moreland is an Englishman who
is probably in his mid-50s. He has the horsey, aristocratic good looks and
speech of someone who went to Cambridge, as he did. I first knew him when once,
long ago, he labored gracefully as an institutional salesman for Morgan Stanley
in New York. Rejecting this as an inferior cultural experience, he matriculated
to write a charming book about walking across
Europe. Subsequently he founded Blakeney Management, an investment company that
focuses exclusively on Africa. Miles is a charming, very bright, unconventional
man. His firm is located in London, where he lives in a houseboat on the Thames
and drives a motorcycle. Miles’ theory is that the African and Middle
Eastern emerging markets are the last undiscovered investment frontier, and
that, if you know a great deal about what everyone else ignores, you should be
able to find some amazing values.
The Washington Post called it one of the 10 best investment books of all time
and the Businessweek calls it a must-read for investors. The first edition of
this book (Stocks for the Long Run, Jeremy J Siegel, Tata McGraw-Hill, 380p;
Rs495) came out in 1994 and the fourth edition was released late last year.
It is the most eloquent argument to buy stocks to create long-term wealth.
Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the Wharton School, University of
Pennsylvania, has aggregated really long-term data from the US market, starting
1802, and used empirical analysis to settle some major investing questions.
Siegel argues that stocks have earned an average 6.5%-7% per year after
inflation over the past 200 years. He expects returns to be somewhat lower in
the coming years. He also proves that, over a long period, stocks are less
risky than bonds. In his new edition, Siegel has added a chapter on
globalisation which argues that the emerging world will soon overtake the
developed world. The Indian edition is reasonably priced and is an essential
read for any serious investor. – D.B.