Opinion polls are only a snapshot at a particular time and election campaigns are dynamic and ever changing. As governor Romney ratchets up the attack on the failed Obama policies, the election dynamics could change

Reading opinion polls in July to decipher what is going to happen in November, is not much better than the medieval practice of reading tea leaves to decipher the future. This was a European practice in which tea was drunk from the cup leaving behind tea leaves, which an expert interpreted to tell you about the future.

Opinion polls are somewhat better, but only just. One realises this when one sees them going here, there and everywhere, but one is bound to take notice if three opinion polls say more or less the same thing. Recently the Wall Street Journal opinion poll, the Quinnipeg opinion poll and the London Economist's opinion poll all noticed that in some crucial swing states the electorate is moving in favour of president Obama. This is despite all the bleak news on the economy, the fact that Mitt Romney has sewn up the Republican nomination and the mis-steps of the Obama campaign. Overall in the new Wall Street Journal/NBC news survey president Obama had a three-point lead over governor Romney 47% to 44%. In the swing states (the ones identified by the survey as the battleground states) he had an eight-point advantage and that advantage has widened from a two-point advantage in April. Similarly the Quinnipeg University swing states poll has president Obama ahead of governor Romney 45%-41% in Florida, 47%-38% in Ohio and 45%-39% in Pennsylvania.

“If he can keep these leads in all these key swing states through Election Day he would be virtually assured of the election,” Peter Brown of Quinnipeg said. Similarly the position of president Obama had strengthened among the Hispanic voters in June. Something is moving the electorate at this early date. The question is what that something is?

The New York Times electoral map shows 217 electoral votes solid or leaning Obama. This includes states like New York and California, Washington and Oregon. 206 electoral votes solid or leaning Romney. This includes states like Texas, Alabama and Georgia. It is the 115 electoral votes which are a tossup where the election will be decided. To win the Electoral College 270 votes are required.

The swing states in this election according to the New York Times are Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire. In three of those states a noticeable shift is occurring in favour of president Obama. Four of the eleven swing states are in the Midwest and the Obama campaign has been heavily advertising about governor Romney and his background as the president of Bain Capital in these states. These advertisements portray governor Romney as a job destroyer rather than a job creator in this election year when jobs are the main issue. This is obviously biting and the view of governor Romney is being obviously coloured by this early advertising.

In a new USA Today Gallup poll of swing states an overwhelming majority of voters remember campaign advertisements over the past month and one in twelve say the commercials have changed their minds about president Obama or governor Romney. This is a small margin but one that could prove crucial in a close race says the USA Today. At this point president Obama has the advantage. Among swing states voters who say the advertisement have changed their minds about the candidates rather than just confirmed what they already thought, 76% support the president with 16% favouring governor Romney. It should be mentioned that in the USA Today opinion poll in swing states president Obama is ahead of governor Romney by a very slim margin.

Writing in the American Prospect, Jamelle Bouie says that the Obama campaign has reversed the substantial lead that the Romney campaign had in Florida with an attack of Romney’s connection with Bain Capital. This is biting among white voters of all ages among whom governor Romney has a substantial lead. Now president Obama is ahead in the polls by 4% points and has narrowed the gap among white voters .This is also against the general demographic trends in Florida which should support governor Romney.

There is a movement seen in favour of president Obama among the Hispanic voters. Hispanics said they preferred president Obama to Mitt Romney by a whopping 40% that is 66% to 26%. President Obama’s proactive stand on the Hispanic vote has clearly helped him. After his announcement of amnesty in favour of young Hispanics who are educated in America or have served in the military, this has obviously impressed and enthused the Hispanics and has led to some movement. Further as the Economist poll suggests the swing states have a lower unemployment rate than the national average and this is also could be a part of the reason that the president Obama is doing better in the swing states.

There could also be an acceptance or resignation with an 8% unemployment rate as the “new normal” which might also end up hurting president Obama less. Also the fact that the manufacturing jobs are coming back to America may be helping president Obama in the rust belt states. Hence it is a bundle of factors which is helping the president. But opinion polls are at best only a snap-shot at a particular time and election campaigns are dynamic and ever changing. As governor Romney ratchets up the attack on the failed Obama policies the election dynamics could change. Also as the Republican and the Romney campaign begins serious advertising the numbers could start to move in the other direction. However, it seems that at least in the early going president Obama has weathered the attack.

(Harsh Desai has done his BA in Political Science from St Xavier's College & Elphinstone College, Bombay and has done his Master's in Law from Columbia University in the city of New York. He is a practicing advocate at the Bombay High Court.)