Survey buoyant on growth; suggests gradual stimulus rollback

The Economic Survey predicts 8.75% GDP growth in 2010-11 while recommending a gradual roll-back of stimulus— a move that could entail a hike in excise duty and service tax.

A day before the general Budget, the Economic Survey of India on Thursday predicted 8.75% GDP growth in 2010-11 while recommending a gradual roll-back of stimulus—a move that could entail hike in excise duty and service tax, reports PTI.

Warning that high double-digit food price inflation could lead to higher-than-anticipated general level of inflation, the Survey called for effective steps to be taken to remove supply-side bottlenecks, together with other policies.

The Survey said the government policy, other calibrated measures and tax relief contained in the stimulus measures have helped the economy shrug off the effects of the slowdown triggered by the global financial meltdown in 2008.

The buoyancy in the economy, in tandem with reforms, would make India possibly the fastest-growing economy in the next four years, it said, while recommending that there was a need for improving the government’s financials by way of rasing tax and non-tax revenues and containing the Budget deficit.

Last week, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council too had suggested a partial roll-back of stimulus measures, including raising excise duty and service tax rates.

The Survey also echoed this view: "...The broad-based nature of the recovery creates scope for a gradual rollback, in due course, of some of the measures undertaken over the last 15-18 months... so as to put the economy back on to the growth path of 9% annually."

The economy is projected to grow by 7.2% this fiscal, with industrial and services sectors growing at 8.2% and 8.7%, respectivelly. Full recovery is likely over the next two fiscals, with up to 8.75% growth in 2010-11% and 9% in the subsequent year.

Critical about the government's policy, particularly over the very high consumer-price inflation, the Survey said that the "hype" over kharif crop failure without taking into account the comfortable food stocks and rabi prospects "may have exacerbated inflationary expectations encouraging hoarding and resulting in higher inflation  on food items.

"... in the case of sugar, delay in the market release of imported raw sugar may have contributed to the overall uncertainty, thereby allowing prices to rise to unacceptably high levels in recent months," it added.

Elaborating on the prospects in the short and medium term, the Survey observed that gross domestic savings stood at 32.5% of GDP in 2008-09, while the gross domestic capital formation (investment) was 34.9%.

"The rates of savings and investment have reached levels that even ten years ago would have been dismissed as a pipedream for India. On this important dimension, India is now completely a part of the world's fastest growing economies."

The Indian economy has been one of the least affected by the global crisis. "In fact, India is one of the growth engines, along with China, in facilitating faster turnaround of the global economy. Risks, however, remain," it added.
On the foreign trade front, which had taken a beating in 2009, the economic document said it is looking up, with prospects of recovery in global output and trade volumes.

The downside risks for world and Indian trade lie in the fact that though the fall has been arrested, both output and trade recoveries are still fragile, given the fact that the recovery has been pumped up by the fiscal stimulus injected by different countries, including India, the effects of which may dry up if natural recovery does not follow.

  • Like this story? Get our top stories by email.


    After HDFC Bank, now ICICI hikes deposit rates

    Signalling a hardening of interest rates in the industry, ICICI Bank has hiked its deposit rates for select tenures by up to 0.5% with immediate effect

    Signalling a hardening of interest rates in the industry, India's largest private sector lender, ICICI Bank Ltd, on Thursday hiked its deposit rates for select tenures by up to 0.5% with immediate effect.

    The Bank will now offer 6.75% for deposits having 390-days maturity as against 6.5% earlier, an ICICI Bank spokesperson told PTI in Mumbai.

    Similarly, deposits having 590-days maturity will now offer an interest rate of 6.75% as against the earlier rate of 6.25%, the spokesperson said.

    The hike in deposit rates comes shortly after another leading private sector lender, HDFC Bank Ltd, recently announced a hike of up to 1.5% in its deposit rates across some maturities.

    Earlier this month, the government-owned IDBI Bank Ltd had also hiked its deposit rates by 0.25% for some tenures.

    The country's largest lender, State Bank of India (SBI), however, had said that it may not hike deposit or lending rates at least till May-June, as the Bank has surplus liquidity.

    "That (rate hike) may not happen till May-June—till the liquidity surplus goes away from the system," SBI chairman OP Bhatt had said.

    Banks started hiking their deposit rates apparently due to the tightening of liquidity by the Reserve Bank of India, which asked banks to park more cash in the mandatory reserve window last month.

    The central bank hiked its cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 0.75% to 5.75%, sucking out around Rs36,000-crore liquidity from the system.

    With ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank taking the lead, more lenders are likely to follow the suit in the coming days.

  • Like this story? Get our top stories by email.


    Maharashtra Chief Post-Master General held for taking Rs2 crore bribe

    CBI arrested Manjit Singh Bali, the chief post-master general for Maharashtra and Goa for accepting a bribe of Rs2 crore for transferring a piece of government land to private parties.

    The Chief Post-Master General for Maharashtra and Goa was arrested on Thursday by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) for allegedly taking a bribe of Rs2 crore for transferring a piece of government land to private parties, reports PTI.

    Manjit Singh Bali was apprehended by the anti-corruption wing of the Central agency, officials said. Mr Bali had allegedly taken the bribe to transfer land meant for post offices to private parties, they said.

  • Like this story? Get our top stories by email.



    Shadi Katyal

    1 decade ago

    It is nice to see once a while someone arrested but we never hear beyond tht.Do they get put in jail and property confiscated or do they bribe and get away?

    We are listening!

    Solve the equation and enter in the Captcha field.

    To continue

    Sign Up or Sign In


    To continue

    Sign Up or Sign In



    online financial advisory
    Pathbreakers 1 & Pathbreakers 2 contain deep insights, unknown facts and captivating events in the life of 51 top achievers, in their own words.
    online financia advisory
    The Scam
    24 Year Of The Scam: The Perennial Bestseller, reads like a Thriller!
    Moneylife Online Magazine
    Fiercely independent and pro-consumer information on personal finance
    financial magazines online
    Stockletters in 3 Flavours
    Outstanding research that beats mutual funds year after year
    financial magazines in india
    MAS: Complete Online Financial Advisory
    (Includes Moneylife Online Magazine)
    FREE: Your Complete Family Record Book
    Keep all the Personal and Financial Details of You & Your Family. In One Place So That`s Its Easy for Anyone to Find Anytime
    We promise not to share your email id with anyone