Share prices can shake off gloom: Monday Closing Report
Moneylife Digital Team 16 May 2011

If the Nifty is able to hold above 5,540, the market can expect some gains. On the downside the support is at 5,390

The steep hike in petrol prices which came into force on Sunday, rattled investors, and led to the market opening lower. Negative cues from the global arena also added to the woes. The Sensex opened 31 points lower at 18,493 while the Nifty opened at 5,542, three points off its Friday close. Nervousness ahead of the announcement of headline inflation data also added to the sluggishness, and saw indices range-bound in negative terrain. The market touched its intra-day high in the first hour of trade, with the indices around the opening levels.

The market pared some of its losses as inflation numbers were marginally lower. Concern is already building that despite easing headline inflation, high fuel costs could lead the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to go in for further tightening measures in June.

The market dropped in the post-noon session on the possibility that the government may also increase diesel and domestic LPG prices. The indices touched their intra-day lows at about 2.30pm, with the Sensex at 18,320, down 211 points, and the Nifty off 57 points at 5,488. However, the market closed a little above these levels. The Sensex settled at 18,345, down 186 points and the Nifty closed at 5,499, down 46 points. The advance-decline on the National Stock Exchange was 413:992.

If the Nifty is able to keep itself above 5,540, we can expect the market to see some gains. The first resistance for the Nifty is at 5,650. But if the Nifty declines to below 5,472, we may see the market head for 5,390.

Among the broader indices, the BSE Mid-cap index declined 0.77% and the BSE Small-cap index fell by 0.74%.

BSE Healthcare (up 0.93%) and BSE Consumer Durables (up 0.22%) were the only gainers in the sectoral space. The losers were led by BSE Realty (down 1.47%), BSE Metal (down 1.45%), BSE Bankex (down 1.18%), BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (down 1.02%) and BSE Oil & Gas (down 0.97%).

Hero Honda (up 3.87%), BHEL (up 0.93%) and Bharti Airtel (up 0.83%) were the noteworthy gainers on the Sensex. On the other hand, Jaiprakash Associates (down 3.20%), Bajaj Auto (down 2.72%), Mahindra & Mahindra (down 2.71%), Tata Steel (down 2.64%) and DLF (down 2.58%) were the major losers on the benchmark.

Headline inflation came down marginally to 8.66% in April on the back of a moderation in prices of certain food items, in line with the government's expectations. Overall inflation, as measured on the basis of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), has been revised to 9.04% for March, from the original projection of 8.98%. The revision was carried out as metal products were not incorporated earlier due to a programming error, the Department of Economic Affairs stated. In addition, the inflation figure for February has also been revised upward to 9.54% from the provisional 8.31%.

Headline inflation has been above 8% since January 2010. The apex bank has already hiked policy rates nine times since March 2010 to tame demand and curb inflation.

Markets in Asia settled mostly lower on the lingering debt crisis in Europe. Greece is expected to plead for a boost in its 110 billion-euro ($155 billion) bailout from European governments and the International Monetary Fund. European finance ministers are also likely to approve 78 billion euros in aid for Portugal. Besides, a Goldman Sachs downgrade of Japanese and Korean shares also hurt investor sentiment.

The Shanghai Composite declined 0.73%, the Hang Seng tanked 1.36%, the Jakarta Composite fell by 0.86%, the KLSE Composite was down 0.29%, the Nikkei 225 declined 0.94%, the Straits Times retreated 0.86%, the Seoul Composite ended 0.75% lower and the Taiwan Weighted tumbled 1.05%.

Back home, institutional investors-both foreign as well as domestic-were net sellers in the equities segment on Friday. While foreign institutional investors offloaded Rs161.35 crore, domestic institutional investors pulled out Rs11.53 crore from the stock market.

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