Sensex, Nifty extremely overbought: Weekly market report
Moneylife Digital Team 29 March 2014
  • Caution is warranted over the short-term. Expect a decline from Tuesday


The BSE 30-share Sensex closed the week that ended on 28th March, at 22,339.97 (up 586 points or 3%), while the NSE’s 50-share Nifty closed at 6,695.90 (up 203 points or 3%) for the week.

 

On the each of the days in this week the indices hit a new high and the benchmark closed closer to the day’s high mostly on all the days.

 

On Monday, Nifty closed at 6,584 (up 89 points or 1.36%). A preliminary gauge of China's factory activity fell to an eight-month low. The "flash" edition of HSBC's China manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 48.1 from February's 48.5, remaining below the 50 level separating expansion from contraction. However, the Asian markets went up on the hope that this would attract government stimulus.

 

On Tuesday, Nifty closed at 6,590 (up 6 points or 0.09%). The Election Commission ordered the deferment of an increase in gas prices that was to take effect from 1 April 2014. On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party said the party will review the new gas pricing formula if elected to power after general elections.

 

On Wednesday, Nifty closed, in the positive for the fifth consecutive session, at 6,601 (up 12 points or 0.18%). To attract more foreign investment, RBI announced allowing opening of special rupee as well as foreign currency accounts with local banks.

 

In spite of being a day of expiry of futures and options bourses witnessed a less volatile session. Banking shares were in focus after Goldman Sachs upgraded ratings of state-owned banks. Nifty closed at 6,642 (up 40 points or 0.61%) on Thursday.

 

Significant reforms under a stable government could lead to valuation re-rating in particular for PSU banks, that could provide a 66% average upside as stressed loans could fall sharply to 4.7% from 10.5% by FY18, Goldman says.

 

One more step in favour for the banks happened when RBI on Thursday extended the transitional period for full implementation of Basel III capital regulations in India up to 31 March 2019, instead of as on 31 March 2018. Nifty again managed making a new high and closed at 6,696 (up 54 points or 0.82%) on Friday.

 

For the week, among the other indices on the NSE, the top two performers were PSU Bank (12%) and CPSE (9%) while the worst two performers were Media (3%) and Pharma (2%).

 

Among the Nifty stocks, the top five stocks for the week were Punjab National Bank (17%); IDFC (15%); State Bank of India (12%); Bank of Baroda (11%) and Ultratech Cement (10%) while the top five losers were Dr. Reddy's Lab (5%); Sun Pharma (3%); Wipro (3%); HCL Technologies (1%) and Infosys (1%).

 

Of the 1,428 companies on the NSE, 855 companies closed in the green, 535 companies closed in the red while 38 companies closed flat.

 

Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, top five and the bottom five sectors for this week were:

 

ML Top sector

 

ML Worst sector

 

Cement

9%

Pharma

-2%

Energy

7%

Software & IT Services

-1%

Telecom Services

7%

Media

-1%

Banks

7%

Shipping

0%

Auto Components

6%

Lifestyle & Leisure

0%

 

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