Rubber-Band Market

The Sensex hit 20,000, much to the collective drumbeat of the media and the bafflement of the aam aadmi. But it has not closed above 20,000 even for a single day. At the time of writing this piece, it was well below 20,000 after fresh worries about the US financial sector surfaced when Citibank announced poor results and skipped dividend. In our last issue, we wondered whether the market was...

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More Downside?

In our last issue, we had forecasted: “We don’t know whether the Sensex will hit 20,000 at the rate it is going. But we seem to be closing in on at least a decent correction in mid-October after the huge move we have seen so far. We don’t know if it is likely to be a 10%-15% correction of the kind we saw in July-August.” The piece was titled “Time for a Break?” The break came, as anticipated,...

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Time for a Break?

From the low of 13,780 that the Sensex hit on August 17th, the index made a high of 17953 on 3 October 2007. This translates into a rally of more than 4,000 points or 30% in one and a half months, while pausing for some breath in mid-September at around the 15,500 mark. The super-acceleration phase of the Sensex is here, what some technical analysts call the fifth wave of a secular bull...

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