Rising household indebtedness a concern: report
Moneylife Digital Team 19 April 2016
With WPI inflation consistently undershooting projections, the real value of nominal debt or credit card outstanding has become higher than expected. This may contribute to the building up of financial risks and make it difficult for households to manage their balance sheets says a report from SBI 
 
The current increment in bank lending has mostly been to the personal loan segment. Moreover, within the personal loans, it is the credit card loan segment that is rising rapidly, indicating a rise in consumer indebtedness. However, household debt as measured by credit outstanding per credit card in India has been rising even in real terms (after being adjusted for wholesale price index (WPI) inflation, says a report from State Bank of India (SBI) Ecowrap. 
 
It said, "Personal loans share is currently rising in the total loan portfolio which leads one to wonder if this increase suggests a movement towards a similar glaring situation as had happened prior to 2008 global crisis when share of personal loans increased in total ASCB loans or does it portend a potentially brighter economic outlook ahead."
 
The divergence between the deposit and credit growth has increased recently. While all scheduled commercial banks (ASCB) deposit growth has hit 53-year low of 9.9% in FY16 as on 18 March 2016, the credit off take has shown some improvement (at 11.3% as on 18 March 16). Household debt as measured by credit outstanding per credit card in India has been rising both in nominal and real terms after being adjusted for WPI inflation. In nominal terms, the outstanding per credit card stood at Rs8,668 as of February 2016, a rise of 15.5% year-on-year, the Ecowrap report says.
 
Further, SBI says, when the historical series is looked at, one finds the share of personal loans to total loans by ASCB increased prior to the global financial crisis of 2008. It increased to 23% by 2006 from 12% in 2001 and it declined subsequently.
 
 
According to the report, personal loans share is once again rising in the total loan portfolio leading one to wonder if this increase suggests a movement towards a similar glaring situation or it portends a brighter economic outlook ahead. However, personal loans share at present does not seem worrisome with the level even below March 2009. 
 
"Though the rise in personal loans might suggest an improving economic momentum going forward, however increase in personal loans alone is not enough. This is corroborated by an in-house study about the relation between credit allocated to industry and personal loans over the past ten years which indicates that industry credit granger causes personal credit and not the other way round," it added. 
 
During March 2016, WPI inflation remained in the negative zone for the 17th month in a row at - 0.85% compared with -0.91% in February 2016 and -2.33% in March 2015. However the larger question is whether this continuous disinflation for the past 17-months reflects worsening consumer demand, the report says.
 
 
According to SBI, despite the negative inflation for the past 17 months, the real outstanding has increased. This indicates that with WPI inflation consistently undershooting projections, the real value of nominal debt or credit card outstanding has become higher than expected. The result does not change much even if we take consumer price inflation into account. This may, in turn, contribute to the building up of financial risks and make it difficult for households to manage their balance sheets, it added.
Comments
Mahesh S Bhatt
10 years ago
Death by Debt is unwritten untold Goevrnments Policy across the Globe.

Create bubbles of property/stocks/ commodities rip up free natural resources and sell at astronomical values to gullible stupid educated grads who take loans from education/house/health/festival.

These indebted youth let them die or struggle to repay while Political + Business enjoy the richness.

Mahesh Bhatt
B. Yerram Raju
10 years ago
All personal loans are bartering the future for the present and this has been accelerated with Credit Cards linkage to several Tourist Travels and Airlines. People without battering the eyelid today travel long distances and overseas by buying the airtickets and hospitality to repay in instalments. On top of this even the SBI Card offers Reward Points that are tagged only to purchases of items worth the cash value of reward points on the net.
Consumerism is living beyond one's own means and living on debt. The type of growth we are having today built on such consumerism is highly risky. It is time that the powers that be start thinking on austerity.
The FM thinks of this when his Fiscal Deficit is close on its heels. He asks his bureaucrats not to travel abroad or travel with permission or travel on economy class in airlines etc.,etc. Austerity has to start at several levels and several instrumentalities. This is imperative for sustainable growth.
Ramesh Poapt
10 years ago
big co;npa bubble, auto loan bubble, housing loan bubble, edu loan bubble, credit card/personal loan bubble...........burst previous 2008....next 201?...
MG Warrier
10 years ago
Those who have a regular income are also prone to borrow regularly. Personal loans and credit cards trap this category of borrowers in a 'vicious cycle'. I was a 'victim' of this behavioural pattern till retirement in 2003. Though interest rates were reasonably low as I was borrowing from staff cooperative credit society. I give below an excerpt from my forthcoming article in The Global ANALYST to illustrate the trap:
"What is negative interest rate for the consumer?
For starters, let me explain this concept with an example. Fish-vender Arundhati from a small town in Kerala has been selling fish by carrying headloads of fish from house to house for the last 25 years. Today, she buys fish costing about Rs3,500 from the wholesale market, transports it in an auto-rikshaw to her town and makes about Rs5,000 by evening by sale by carrying from door to door. Whole her life, she has been dependent on ‘Blade Bhasi’ a local money lender. Every Monday morning she borrows Rs5,000 and repays Rs5,500(including Rs500 towards interest) on Saturday evening. In this process, if the original Rs5000 belonged to Arundhati, the additional Rs500 paid is the negative interest she is paying to Blade Bhasi for safe custody of Rs 5,000 from Saturday to Monday. If the corpus of rs5,000 belonged to Blade Bhasi, the interest paid by Arundhati on the borrowed money @Rs500 per week on rs5,000 is at around 500 per cent per annum."
Your views are welcome.
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