‘Residential property prices in Mumbai may correct by 33%’

Pankaj Kapoor, managing director of realty research firm Liases Foras, expects realty prices to come down slowly and in instalments, as and when developers have no other way to get funds but to sell property at reduced rates

"I can see a 33% correction coming in residential property prices in Mumbai, because the market is going to enter a consumer circle," Pankaj Kapoor, managing director, Liases Foras, a real estate rating and research agency, has said. Mr Kapoor was speaking at a workshop on real estate prices, hosted by Moneylife Foundation at the Moneylife Knowledge Centre today.

Mr Kapoor explained the viability of buying a property in today's market, which has seen prices escalate to unaffordable levels. He offered prospective home buyers tips on how to tackle the situation, through an analysis of the real estate market to gauge the direction the prices will go in the next year.

He said that it was foolish to consider buying property in the far-flung suburbs, with no connectivity, because one must live near the workplace. "This idea of affordable housing is a myth, because the commercial centres are not shifting, and prices there are unaffordable. No wonder, we see more slums cropping up," Mr Kapoor said.

When asked about the areas in Mumbai which he considered a good bet to buy a home, Mr Kapoor listed  Kurla, Vadala, Sewri and Gorai as attractive options. He said that once the metro came up, these areas would benefit and develop the most.

Mr Kapoor said that on the basis of current property offtake, Mumbai was in the worst position, while Pune was the best-placed. "Pune's stock can be cleared in 12 months. However, Mumbai will require 40 months," he said. He said that since many financers were shifting to Pune, more capital would be injected in that market and set off speculation. "After a year or so, may be Pune will also see irrational price hikes fuelled by speculation," he said.

He asked buyers not to bother too much about developers and to concentrate on the property itself. "Most big brand developers are in problems. A sensible investor and a sensible buyer would stay away from big names and look at the project and consider: Is it a liveable locality? Can they sell at that price? Will the delivery be on time?"

"The problem with most valuations is that they go by the prices next door. So when a developer hears that the adjoining property has been priced at Rs2 crore, he will also hike his own prices. However, he doesn't consider whether sales are actually happening at those prices," Mr Kapoor said. "Even professional valuations are faulty on these accounts. So, inventory piles up, prices rise and the market becomes more lopsided."

When asked why despite various predictions, the prices had not come down, Mr Kapoor said the correction would be slow and in instalments. He said that even when prices don't appreciate, this must be considered as a correction too.

"The developer reduces prices when there is no other way to get money apart from sales. Now, even when the borrowing rates are high, there is money available, either from private equity or other channels. As these flows gradually dry up, builders will be forced to bring their prices down to a level which suits the customer," he said.

Read related reports: Will realty fall? Mumbai properties costliest, but sales lowest among all metros in the country

Will realty fall? Realty boom in tier-II/III cities a myth, says Liases Foras founder

  • Like this story? Get our top stories by email.




    9 years ago

    I dont think the price drop wld be that much as most of the money in real eastate is black money invested. Most of the property buyers are also investors. Black & white ratio as become so common but still govt. seems to be playing blind man to this. After having so many laws & rules, even thn builders does not seem to be afraid of breaking it. They are selling parking space, loading is as high as 40 %. Most of the builders do not complete the project as marketed initially. All this has become so common but Govt. dosnt want to make any correction to this as most of the money involve in all this belongs to our administrators who are running our country and the middle income group has to take the entire burden of all this. Correction in property prices is just a myth coz ths people are not losing anything rather they are converting most of thr black money into white.


    9 years ago




    In Reply to M A ZOKANDE 9 years ago

    Correctly said, there was a correction seen after 1997.


    9 years ago

    Insightful Analysis of Real Estate Market
    Hope it will be so


    9 years ago

    We have been hearing this for last couple of years from various experts including stalwarts like Deepak Parekh, but a drop of 33% in real estate prices of Mumbai will remain a mirage for the end users. Before you know it would have risen again. So, if you "have to buy it", do not try to time it (as they say in share market).


    9 years ago

    I don't think so, builders r in profits even if they sell 40-50% of their projects. In case of liquidity crunch, they are passing discounts to their regular investors not to end users.


    9 years ago

    Prices are definately stagnated for lack of buyrers but i doubt whether prices will really fall. The network between builders, brokers,banks , politicians is too strong to warrnt a decrease of 33% . Only time will tell whether this will happen meanwhile prospective buyers must always be on the lookout otherwise they will miss the bus!!!


    9 years ago

    No transparency in real estate market.. People avoid tax and buy property...In Mumbai its really hard to get flats with full cheque amount in western suburb... its minimum 75-25% as Cash they need... No body stopping them too... prices will only come down if unaccounted money from politicians , businessman and underworld comes down..


    9 years ago

    Completely agree with Mr Pankaj's view...

    Rakesh shah

    9 years ago

    Good information in todays confused market for actual buyers.


    9 years ago

    One aspect not covered in this otherwise illuminating article is the cash/cheque ratio. Increasingly, in many parts of the urban South and now also in NCR, "full cheque" deals are becoming more and more popular, with cash components reaching an all-time low except in cases of ancestral old properties.

    Is it, therefore, likely that transactions in Mumbai would also move towards this trend?


    9 years ago

    From last 1yr, I amreading this but due to Black money from Swiss bank coming back, prices are increasing only..Moneylife should raise this Black money point to all Income tax dept as common man cant do it..

    We are listening!

    Solve the equation and enter in the Captcha field.

    To continue

    Sign Up or Sign In


    To continue

    Sign Up or Sign In



    online financial advisory
    Pathbreakers 1 & Pathbreakers 2 contain deep insights, unknown facts and captivating events in the life of 51 top achievers, in their own words.
    online financia advisory
    The Scam
    28 Year Of The Scam: The Perennial Bestseller, reads like a Thriller!
    Moneylife Online Magazine
    Fiercely independent and pro-consumer information on personal finance
    financial magazines online
    Stockletters in 4 Flavours
    Outstanding research that beats mutual funds year after year
    financial magazines in india
    MAS: Complete Online Financial Advisory
    (Includes Moneylife Online Magazine)