Ready for a major move

The latest positive data on the infrastructure sector failed to spark a market rally

Indian markets finally ended the day on a flat note after the finance ministry’s Economic Survey for 2009-10 predicted that India would bounce back to a high 9% growth in 2011-12 and is on its way to becoming the world’s fastest-growing economy in four years. The latest data on the infrastructure sector for January 2010 also helped the market to bounce back. At the end of the day, the Sensex declined 2 points from the previous day’s close to 16,254 while the Nifty gained 1 point to close at 4,860. Yesterday, we had said that the market would move sideways until the Union Budget, and it did so today. However, tomorrow, the Budget will be tabled and the market is getting ready for a major move, probably downward.

At 12:00 hrs IST, the Sensex was trading down 58 points from the previous day’s close at 16,198. At 14:00 hrs, the index was trading at 16,220, down 36 points.

At the end of the day, Banco Products gained 2%, after the company clarified that it does not supply the specific gasket fitted in the recalled A-star model of Maruti Suzuki.

Aurobindo Pharma ended flat after the company received tentative approval from the US Food & Drug Administration for Nevirapine tablets in oral suspension form.

PAE Ltd has entered into a distribution agreement with Schneider Electric India for the Xantrex range of products, which consists of solar invertors, solar chargers and charge controllers. The stock gained 1%.

Kerala Ayurveda has signed an expression of interest with Arya Vaidya Pharmacy (Coimbatore) to evaluate the integration of both businesses. The stock declined 1%.

During trading hours, the government announced that the infrastructure sector output grew 9.4% in January 2010 from a year earlier, higher than an upwardly revised annual growth of 6.4% in December 2009. During April-January, the first 10 months of the 2009-10 fiscal year, output rose 5.4% from 3% a year ago. The infrastructure sector accounts for 26.7% of India's industrial output.

The Economic Survey said capital inflows from advanced economies could be a challenge for India as they might lead to overheating of the economy. With interest rates at historic lows in most advanced economies, capital flows from these countries are finding their way into the fast-growing Asian economies, including India. It added that if inflows exceed the domestic absorptive capacity, it could lead to overheating of the economy. The Survey showed that this can also be looked at as the “impossible trinity” dilemma of policy choice between price stability, exchange-rate stability and capital mobility.

The economic survey for the 2009-10 financial year urged a calibrated exit from fiscal stimulus, which cushioned India’s economy from the worst of the global downturn. The report, presented in Parliament ahead of tomorrow’s general Budget, forecast economic growth at 8.25%-8.75% in 2010-11, accelerating to over 9% the year after, compared with projected growth of 7.2%-7.5% in the current year.

The economic survey said the risk of a double-dip recession in advanced economies has a direct implication for India. The survey said production of farm and allied sectors fell 0.2% in 2009-10, adding that there is a need for serious policy initiatives to achieve 4% annual agriculture growth. The survey suggested direct food subsidy via food coupons to households and favours making available food in the open market. The survey also favours issuing monthly ration coupons for the poor.

During the day, Asia’s key benchmark indices in Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan fell between 0.49%-1.57%, but China’s rose 1.27%.

On Wednesday 24 February 2010, in the US markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 92 points while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 11 points and 22 points, respectively.

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    Can AMFI’s new appointment help it turn a new leaf?

    Faced with a credibility crisis, mutual fund industry body AMFI has appointed HN Sinor as its chief executive. Industry sources have welcomed the move.

    The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) has decided to appoint Hoshang Noshirwan Sinor, better known as HN Sinor, as its chief executive (CEO). Mr Sinor, a former CEO of Indian Banks Association (IBA), is expected to replace AP Kurian, current chairman of the industry body, who will be stepping down in the month of September.

    Mr Sinor’s appointment comes at a time when AMFI appears to have lost face within industry circles because of its fumbling and lack of preparedness over many issues. “Over time, it has been reduced to a department of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), rather than acting as a strong voice for the industry. It has failed to become the voice of industry participants like small distributors and asset management companies (AMCs), as well as independent financial advisors (IFAs), who have been struggling in the wake of various game-changing regulations introduced by SEBI last year,” says a chief executive (CEO) of an asset management company (AMC).

    AMFI, as an industry body, is expected to argue intelligently for the industry. It has failed miserably in this regard. It has conducted no research and has hardly any points to make on any of the key issues affecting the industry, such as abolition of entry loads. For what an industry association can do, witness the effectiveness of Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) which commands the respect of businesses and regulators alike, because it puts enormous efforts into networking and also co-opting industry leaders in the association’s activities.

    Sources within the industry have welcomed this new appointment. Fed up with AMFI’s parochial and indecisive approach, several experts are hopeful that Mr Sinor will make certain positive moves. An IFA source said, “Mr Sinor is an honest person with a clean record. I expect that he will do some good. AMFI has lost credibility. It is plagued by many problems, most of which have been brought forth by its lackadaisical approach. It doesn’t allow small distributors and small AMCs to have a say in policy matters.”

    Another IFA said it is nice to have someone with a fresh perspective and approach. “Although he comes from a different industry, he brings with him vast experience that will count. A lot depends on what he can bring out of the relationships with regulators and how the industry as a whole tackles various matters. Ultimately, he is representing an industry, to work as the voice of the industry. But the industry chooses to be docile in front of regulators. It has to have the conviction to take up various matters with the regulator. For this, he will have to mobilise support from within the industry.”

    A graduate in commerce and law, Mr Sinor’s career has spanned 43 years in the banking sector. He has previously worked with Central Bank of India, Union Bank of India and ICICI Bank, and was the chief executive of the IBA until July 2008. He has worked on various committees of the Indian government, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and has hence contributed to policy and decision-making processes.

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    sanjay pandey

    1 decade ago

    i am intrested withthis opportunities.

    Suresh Sadagopan

    1 decade ago

    AMFI had adopted a supine pose and had allowed SEBI to ride roughshod over the MF industry. A far better articulation and effective lobbying would have been possible with effective leadership. Changes only affecting MF industry without corresponding changes for other segments of the industry should have been opposed tooth & nail. Instead AMFI virtually rubber stamped and towed the line of SEBI. The pace of change should have been moderated to give the IFAs time to adapt. AMFI & SEBI should show the way forward with a forward looking roadmap for the upgrading IFAs to consultants. Just changing the landscape by fiat and washing their hands off, is irresponsible behaviour on part of SEBI and AMFI has virtually endorsed it. A change in leadership is a welcome step. One hopes that the project of a online platform contemplated by AMFI and scrapped later will be revived by the new leadership. Hope the sorry state of affairs at AMFI is reversed then.


    1 decade ago

    i really wish new AMFI chief comes with ground realities understood which were never tackled by exixting chief-new chief need not be a rubber stamp to SEBI-he must tackle the issues with guts which have harmed the industry and IFA"s and small investors( to whom no IFA is ready to go bcos there are no incentives for a SIP or 5000 Rs application-

    Narendra Doshi

    1 decade ago

    I am hoping things will leapfrog positively & cover up the stupendous backlog. Still, the action can possibly only be felt around Dec 2010 at the earliest. I wish Mr. Sinor comes fully prepared to enable him act promptly & all small investors interests will be at the top of his thinking cap.

    R Balakrishnan

    1 decade ago

    Like IRDA, AMFI will also become a sinecure for retired bankers and bureaucrats. But, maybe, now AMFI will recognise the breed called the investor, whom the regulator is driving away to the web of deceit spun by the insurance companies. SRO is desired by the new CEO. Wonderful that an outsider with no experience voices this on day one. Who is the tutor? SRO should have at least 50% of its Board from outside the industry and government/regulators so that investors can get a voice.

    Companies, MF interdependence raises concerns of market volatility

    The interdependence between corporates and mutual funds has raised concerns relating to volatility in financial markets.

    Cautioning that the capital market is facing many challenges, the Economic Survey on Thursday said close links between corporates and mutual funds (MFs) have raised concerns about volatility in financial markets, reports PTI.

    "The interdependence between corporates and mutual funds has recently raised concerns relating to volatility in financial markets," the Survey presented by finance minister Pranab Mukherjee in Parliament today said.

    It also stated that there was limited participation from retail investors in the corporate debt market and in mutual funds.

    Moreover, the recent global economic crisis had raised many issues about governance of financial intermediaries and awareness of investors, it added. Investor protection and education are both needed as neither would have the desired impact in isolation.

    "A simultaneous and coordinated effort on both fronts would help investors take well-informed financial decisions besides protecting their interests and ensuring orderly conditions in markets," it added.

    The Survey has, therefore, called for greater effort in promoting investor education and protection.

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