New Delhi: The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) today pegged the farm sector growth rate at 4.5% for 2010-11 fiscal on the expectation of a strong rebound in foodgrains output on the back of a good monsoon, reports PTI.
Agriculture and allied sectors grew by a mere 0.2% in last fiscal due to a widespread drought, which caused a 16 million tonnes or nearly 7% dip in foodgrains production from a record of 234.47 million tonnes in 2008-09.
"On the basis of a normal monsoon forecast by the Met Department, one may reasonably expect a strong rebound in crop output in kharif and rabi in 2010-11," Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) said in its economic outlook for the current fiscal.
The panel noted that the expansion in horticulture and animal husbandry and a low base effect should generate a farm sector gross domestic product (GDP) growth of around 4.5% in the current fiscal.
It projected the sector to grow by 4% in 2011-12.
"So far the indications are that the monsoon would be normal. On that assumption, we are making a forecast that agriculture growth would be 4.5% in the current fiscal and this comes after two years of low growth," PMEAC chairman C Rangarajan told reporters here.
In the first three years of the current Plan period, the farm sector has achieved an average annual growth of 2.16% and if the PMEAC's projection for this fiscal and the next proves to be correct, then the average annual growth for the entire 11th Five-Year Plan Period would be 3%.
The government had targeted 4% growth in the farm sector for the current Plan period ending March 2012.
Food and agriculture minister Sharad Pawar had earlier said the country was likely to have bumper production this year on the back of good monsoon.
"The latest sowing report shows that compared to last year, the area coverage is more for rice, oilseeds, pulses, cotton, sugarcane and jute," Mr Pawar had said.
Farmers have sown paddy in an area of about 124.78 lakh hectares till 16th July, against 122.40 lakh hectare in the same period last year.
India had produced 234.47 million tonnes of foodgrains in 2008-09 and 218.2 million tonnes in 2009-10 crop year.
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