The Indian GDP growth averaged 6.9% in the first three quarters of the current fiscal but the recent data on industrial production has been terrible. Amidst a gloomy economic scenario, auto companies have registered superb volumes in January and February 2009; cement manufacturers too are enjoying strong demand. One sector that is doing better on this cumulative demand increase in other sectors is...
• Prices of natural gas are declining sharply. The commodity faces its first globalised glut in history. While new giant facilities are ready to go on stream in the US, Asian and European countries that import the gas are facing a slowdown. Gas from Qatar, Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria that otherwise would be going to Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Spain is beginning to arrive in the US pushing down gas prices.
• With the ban on export of edible oil extended by another year, prices of the commodity are declining. The ban was imposed last year against the backdrop spiralling inflation to bring down prices of the commodity in the domestic market.
• Though steel production and output have shown encouraging signs on the domestic front, world crude steel production is on the decline. Crude steel production for 66 countries reporting to the World Steel Association was 84 million tonnes in February 2009, down 22% from the year-ago period.
I have maintained that the Sensex might bottom out close to 6,200. There have been major peaks in the years 2000 and 2004 and a great decline in 2005. The 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from the 1992 peak of 4,546 to the 1993 trough of 1,980 is at 6,133. This has acted as critical support/resistance during the entire bull run and in the subsequent downtrend as well. Therefore,...
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