When gold prices crossed $600 we had asked whether gold was a great investment option. Gold bulls were sanguine that it would cross the old high of $850, made sometime in early 80s. We were not so sure. After our analysis, gold surged past $700 in a month. But after touching $730, a 26-year high, the yellow metal started softening until on June 13, it posted its steepest one-day decline in 23 years! Gold simply collapsed 8% in one day to almost $550 when a global liquidity crunch forced a selloff of all risky, leveraged assets - from emerging market equities to commodities - and gold. The reason: the strong market opinion that the US Federal Reserve may keep raising rates to contain inflation. This reduces gold's appeal as an investment. This is why we had suggested investors avoid gold at these levels.
The key point about gold is that unlike other financial assets, it does not pay interest or dividend. So, the moment there is a reasonably safe asset class that seems to offer a stream of income - and does seem strong enough to withstand economic risks, money will flow into that asset, deserting gold. This is exactly what happened in mid-June as the dollar re-emerged as a strong competing asset because US interest rates were expected to harden.
Investors embrace gold as an asset when they have no asset to turn to - a period of extreme depression and gloom. This is rare in human history and so, despite periodic appeals, in inflation-adjusted terms gold has been a terrible performer.
Indians are the world's biggest gold lovers. We account for one-fifth of world gold sales and nearly 70% of this goes into gold jewellery. But the gold jewellery market is so fraught with unfair trade practices that even a sympathetic National Consumer Disputes Redressal Forum could do little beyond questioning if consumers "should be left at the mercy of the traders"? 
Gold has now crossed $600 and gold bulls are hopeful that at this rate it will cross the old high of $850, made sometime in early 80s. Will it and if it does, what are the other implications? Is gold a good investment at the current levels? Remember, unlike other financial assets, gold does not pay interest or dividend. Besides, in inflation-adjusted terms gold has not been a great performer. During a period of economic prosperity, gold can go down quite a bit in a continuous fashion over years. Newspaper headlines are screaming now that gold prices have reached 20-year highs in dollar terms and so on. The fact is, it has grown just 10% in these 20 years. The real rise has happened after April 2001, when gold hit $256. But if you bought gold in April 1989, you would have paid $400. By 2001, 12 years later, the loss would have been 35%. Of course, this is a comparison in dollar terms.
With a steady devaluation of rupee, price of local gold would have stayed up. Like most other financial products, there is a time to own gold and there is a time to stay away from gold.
So, the key factors to consider while guessing the price of gold are (apart from the movement of rupee vis-à-vis dollar) estimate of inflation vis-à-vis interest rates and of course estimates of physical demand and supply of gold. Too many complex and global factors are embedded in the price of gold. Not only is it impossible for individual investors but even for teams of experts to get all these elements right to make any worthwhile bet on the direction and magnitude of gold prices. Most importantly, there is little transparency in the large physical demand and supply of gold involving central banks, hedgers and actual users. Gold rises on demand and supply factors such as central banks, hording lots of gold, deciding to sell, depressing prices. But as a thumb rule, it is the expectation of higher inflation worldwide that pushes up the price of gold.
If you want to buy gold for large returns, be careful what you wish for. You would be betting that the world is facing difficult times. When all other asset classes are doing badly, gold will be a top performer. When interest rates are higher than the inflation, gold is not preferred because gold pays no interest. But if interest rates are close to inflation or below, gold is a preferred asset. This is so because inflation eats up the actual earnings power of interest income and reduces the value of financial asset. Suddenly, gold becomes important in those times.
But if you believe that India is a growth economy you may well find yourself in the position of the US investor in 1980. In January of 1980, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 850, and gold was at $850 an ounce. In 2006, Dow is at almost 12000 and gold is at $600. If India keeps growing and its currency remains stable, stocks will outperform most asset classes and gold will not do too well, whether we have a bull run in commodities or not.
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