Is BSE Sensex likely to move up on Thursday?
Aditya Govindaraj  and  Pratibha Kamath 13 November 2013

BSE Sensex fell for the 7th day on Wednesday. The 30-share benchmark has a good chance of moving up on Thursday, based on what the index did on 23 occasions of 7 consecutive days of losses since 1991

The markets closed Wednesday in the red for the 7th consecutive day in a row, the 24th such occurrence since 1991. Will the markets close down or up on 14th November? According to Moneylife analysis there’s a possibility that the benchmark index, S&P BSE Sensex could close in the green on Thursday, based on what the index did on the 8th day, in similar situations since 1991.
 

Of the past 23 occasions when the Sensex closed in the negative for seven days in a row, the index closed in the positive 14 times of 61% of the time.


The highest gain was on 23 January 2008 when S&P BSE Sensex closed up 864.13 points after the huge crash from over 21,000 in mid-January. The average gain was 123.93 points, while the smallest gain was just 15.13 points.
 

But bulls must also consider that on nine occasions, the S&P BSE Sensex closed in the red on the eighth day as well since 1991, after falling for seven consecutive days. The worst loss occurred on 21 November 2011 when the S&P BSE Sensex fell 425.41 points, when the world was in the grip of fear over the collapse of European economies.  The average loss over these nine occasions was 132.55 points, with the minimum loss at just 4.84 points.
 

 MaximumMinimumAverage
When Sensex went up864.1315.13123.93
When Sensex went down-425.41-4.84-132.55

 

Comments
Dr Anantha K Ramdas
1 decade ago
Thank you, Aditya and Pratibha!

Your excellent presentation with facts and figures helped me to spend a couple of hours watching the movement on Thurday and I was able to make some purchase and sales of equity that I have been planning for sometime.

Since 15th was a declared holiday for Muharram, I am now anxiously awaiting what would happen next. Frankly, I expect Monday would bring in "profit-taking" and resultant fall in prices, and the market may pick up again by Wed/Thursday.

It is in investors interest to keep a close track of what is happening so that their savings are safe!

Please do write often on these subjects. Thanks again...
Nilesh KAMERKAR
Replied to Dr Anantha K Ramdas comment 1 decade ago
Dear sir,

Extremely worrying to see investors shifting to(day)trading. Please do rethink . . .

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