Indian economy poised to achieve 9%-10% growth: PM

The Indian prime minister emphasised the need to rework the functioning of the global financial system, in a meeting with the US president

Prime minister Manmohan Singh has said that India was poised to achieve 9%-10% economic growth, but for this, it required a “protection-free international climate.”

During the meeting with US president Barack Obama, Mr Singh said that there was a need to “rewrite” the architecture of the global economic system in which the G-20 could play an important role, reports PTI.

Mr Singh and Mr Obama discussed a broad range of issues, including the global economic crisis, follow up of G-20 meetings and food & energy security.

The PM said that he was convinced that the two countries could begin a new chapter in their relations, foreign secretary Nirupama Rao told reporters.

Referring to the global economic crisis, Singh referred to role of US in strengthening growth impulses in the world economy, particularly in developing countries after World War II and stressed that that experience should be repeated.

Talking about India, he said that the country was poised to achieve high economic growth of 9%-10%, given the savings rate of 35% and investment rate of 37%. For this to happen, there was need for peace in the region, he said.

He also said that countries like India needed an international environment that does not allow protectionist forces to gain ascendancy, Ms Rao said.

Mr Singh told Mr Obama that “we should rewrite the architecture of the global economic system. In this context, G-20 could play an important role in ensuring that global economic recovery is sustainable.”

He said that the US was uniquely placed to work out a plan for sustainable recovery in a globally integrated financial system. There is synergy of interests between India and the US, Mr Singh told Mr Obama.

In response, Mr Obama said that the US would welcome suggestions from India as preparations for the next G-20 were underway. He mentioned common interest of both countries in seeing early conclusion of the Doha round of WTO talks.
 

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Industry grows at over 15% in February

A total of 14 out of the 17 industrial groups exhibited positive growth in February

Industrial growth maintained a high growth rate of over 15% for the third month in a row in February, reports PTI.

Industrial growth, as measured by the index of industrial production (IIP), however, was slightly lower than the 16% of the previous month and 17.6% recorded in December 2009.

The high growth is largely due to a strong 16% growth in manufacturing and a low base of 0.2% a year ago, when the Indian economy was still reeling under the impact of the global financial crisis.

The consumer durables sector, which was particularly hit by the global crisis, expanded 29.9% in February while capital goods production rose 44.4%.

Among other sectors, mining rose 12.2% and electricity by 6.7%.

For the first 11 months of the last fiscal, industrial output rose by 10.1% against 3% a year ago. As many as 14 out of the 17 industrial groups showed positive growth in February.

This would help the Indian economy to grow by at least 7.2%, as estimated by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).
 

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Modern finance and piracy

Away from the public eye, the modern business of ship piracy is rapidly acquiring professional attributes

Your fuel prices are about to go up some more, partly also because a bunch of ragtag bandits and pirates in and around Somalia along with their highly-qualified "negotiators" in respectable cities across the Western Europe and Central Asian world, are making a fine business out of one of the oldest professions known to humanity.

And while we are fed with images of rabble pointing guns at television cameras, the real "business" of modern ship piracy and ransoms is rapidly acquiring professional attributes, as always, done so very quietly away from the public eye.

However, to understand this article, you may want to first of all take out an atlas or a world map, and see how a very large ship carrying crude oil would typically go from the Persian Gulf to the East Coast of the USA. The ship, which would be anywhere in size from 300 through 500 thousand tonnes in carrying capacity, would exit the Persian Gulf, hug the coast of Africa, and then after rounding the Cape, strike out across the Atlantic towards its destination on the East Coast.

To understand this article even better, you have to comprehend what is a very large tanker ship of this size, in relation to other tankers ashore. The typical single-axle tanker truck with "Highly Inflammable" written across its rear would carry about 10 tonnes of cargo, so just imagine 30 to 50 thousand such trucks. A tanker train would typically carry about 1,500 tonnes of fuel as cargo, so just imagine about 200 to 333 such trains.

Now imagine all this plodding across the globe at 12 to 15 knots, which would be about 20 to 27 km/h, round the clock. The tanker would be about 330 to 400 metres long, 60 to 75 metres wide, and about 20 to 25 metres deep in the water. Much bigger than an average-sized mall.

So big, these tankers can be seen from outer space with the naked eye. So big, in fact, that the effect of the Earth's rotation around its own axis impacts the direction these ships take, the only manmade items that are impacted by this phenomenon, also known as the 'coriolis effect’. These ships have about 15-25 men onboard.

All of which can be taken over and hijacked by a few men in high-speed boats, carrying less weapons than seen outside the average 5-star hotel lately, and then held for ransom. Or as in the case of some other ships, the cargo can be unloaded, and the ship itself used as a ‘mother vessel’ to range further deep into the sea. As is so common now, at the entrance of the Red Sea, between Somalia and Yemen.

Look at that map again, closer to the Indian coast. Recent hijacks and piracy incidents have been reported very close to the Indian coast, as well as deep inside the Indian Ocean, over 1,500-1,750 km away from Somalia's coast. The result, however, is always the same—the vessel is commandeered, and a few days later, it anchors off some small port in the Horn of Africa, while "negotiations" commence through well-defined channels in Europe and Central Asia.

Of late, seafarers, in their attempt to get away from the piracy menace, are exiting the Persian Gulf in an easterly direction, then hugging the Indian coast till almost 75 degrees East, and only then setting course heading due South to turn in towards South Africa well after going below 20 degrees South, well below Mauritius.

And despite all this, the 320,000-tonne, Korean-controlled, Marshall Island-flagged, American-chartered, Iraqi cargo-carrying and Filipino-crewed motor tanker Samho Dream was hijacked a few days ago, and then taken to the coast off Somalia, where it now awaits negotiations, with a South Korean destroyer following at a safe distance.

To give perspective, a ship of this size is worth anything between $20 million-$100 million. The cargo would be worth between $150 million and $200 million. The refined fuel from this crude would keep all of USA's automobiles going for a bit under a day. In standalone terms, therefore, this is really not all that much of a game changer.

But as a catalyst, this has the portents of a radical change in the way costs will impact the final product, and in only one direction—upwards. Here are a few reasons why:

a) The increased attraction this piracy and ransom "business" has worldwide. Already, ships have been hijacked from the North Sea, Mediterranean Sea, West African/Nigerian Atlantic coasts, and increased piracy activity reports are surfacing from the South China Sea and Malacca Straits. Somali area piracy now accounts for just about 50% of world sea piracy incidents.

b) The increased cost of a potential environmental disaster. If a ship like the Samho Dream was to be blown up, then the environmental impact would cost anything from $8 billion and $20 billion, by a variety of estimates. That cost would be loaded on to future customers.

c) As it is, wages on such ships are amongst the highest in the business. Add to this the cost of providing security and higher wages, and you have a scenario which impacts prices by multiples. Plus, people simply don't want to work on piracy-prone routes anymore.

d) And finally, there is the automatic hoarding mentality that has rapidly taken over, as worried energy companies and refineries stockpile additional amounts of crude oil worldwide—fearing a major breakdown in this supply chain. This ties up ships as offshore storage, as well as onshore storage areas, and further notches up the charter rates for such large ships.

All this, happening on a coastline where traditional trade from the west coast of India has carried on for centuries. And now, these huge super tankers, in the category of ‘very large’ and ‘ultra large’, are sailing within Indian waters, to avoid piracy attacks further west.

There is a major issue brewing. For those who have seen the wreck of the ship lying outside Otter's Club in Bandra (a Mumbai suburb), or the one off Aguada in Goa, the Samho Dream would be about 20-30 times as big. And loaded with crude oil.

And what is governance in India doing about this, then?

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COMMENTS

V Malik

9 years ago

Thank you all for your comments. As an ex-seafarer revalidating competencies, am aware of the concern this is causing, and the sudden upsurge in the last few days. In addition, there seems to even worse internal conflict in Somalia and adjacent territories, which is making matters worse. Some of the latest attacks are very close to the Indian coast, as close as 350-400 miles away.

S.A.Narayan

9 years ago

International Maritime Union, the UN agency responsible for shipping matters needs to take this issue at the macro UN level and respond perhaps with a world maritime police, internationally manned and police the high seas, with sufficient country-wise(all UN members to do this), legislated back-up for trying offenders.

Shobha Mathur

9 years ago

Well I think the time has come to think of making smaller and faster ships rather than bigger mammoths.
Re the pirates, do not dare harm them, some Human right organizations will come and sue you!

Samir

9 years ago

Oh India is going great guns .....talking about N-security, Afganistan,a N armed Pakistan etc...reminds one of the Nehru era ! Non aglined movement and what nought and then China invades and we are sitting ducks !!!

suman

9 years ago

i mean to destroy pirate ships.right now they can only be deterred,can be caught but has to be released later on as it is international waters and law of individual nations which gives military right to kill terrorists doesnt apply here.

SUMAN SINGH

9 years ago

I work on such ships called VLCC/ULCC.You have given very good account of enormity of such ships to non-mariners.The threat is real and something which haunts us constantly.As you see any ship - tanker or another has to pass either Suez or south of Africato carry merchandise to Europe,US.We cant avoid going there and cant afford not to work.Only UN mandated and licensed military action to destroy ships can restore normalcy as there is no other way i.e.patrolling,monitoring they can be dterred.

lowkeyfan

9 years ago

Highly informative. Hmm... monely life is tracking the entire lifecycle of money. Great piece. I would give this 5stars only if you did not fell to the cliche of what is the gumming in India doing? What has the gummint in India done for the pirates within that it could around the shores of Somalia? So, I would say 4 stars.

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