The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday revised its forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon season, predicting below-normal rainfall across the country along with above-normal temperatures and heatwave conditions in several states during June.
In its
updated long-range forecast, the weather office said the country is likely to receive seasonal rainfall equivalent to 90% of the long-period average (LPA) during the June-September monsoon season, with a model error margin of ±4%.
The long-term average seasonal rainfall over India, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87cm.
The IMD said rainfall distribution is expected to remain uneven across regions. Northeast India is likely to receive normal rainfall, while central, northwest, and south peninsular India are expected to record below-normal precipitation during the monsoon season.
The department also warned that rainfall over the monsoon core zone (MCZ), which is crucial for kharif crop cultivation, is likely to remain below normal.
According to the forecast, most parts of the country are expected to witness deficient rainfall during the monsoon months, although some areas in northwest India, northeast India, eastern parts of the south peninsula and isolated pockets of east and east-central India may receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
IMD further said rainfall during June alone is expected to remain below normal at less than 92% of the LPA.
Addressing a press conference, IMD director-general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said above-normal maximum temperatures are likely across large parts of the country during June, while several states may also face intense heatwave conditions.
He said Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat are expected to witness above-normal heatwave activity during the month.
IMD also projected above-normal minimum temperatures across most parts of India during June, although some areas in northwest, central and adjoining south peninsular India could see normal to below-normal night temperatures.
Secretary in the ministry of earth sciences, M Ravichandran, said evolving El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean remain a concern for the progress of the monsoon season.
Climate models currently indicate the possibility of a moderate to strong El Niño phase developing later during the monsoon period, which could adversely affect rainfall distribution and intensity.
El Niño conditions are generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over India and higher temperatures.
The weather office said the updated forecast takes into account changing ocean-atmospheric conditions and evolving global climate signals.
The southwest monsoon is critical for India’s agriculture sector, water reservoirs and rural economy, as nearly half of the country’s farmland remains dependent on rainfall for irrigation.
A below-normal monsoon could increase pressure on agricultural output, reservoir levels and food prices, particularly if heatwave conditions persist during the early phase of the season.
IMD said it would continue monitoring oceanic and atmospheric developments closely and issue region-wise forecasts and updates as the monsoon season progresses.
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