The average cost of preparing both vegetarian and non-vegetarian meals at home increased in June due to a sharp rise in tomato prices, firm onion and edible oil prices and higher liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinder costs,
according to CRISIL Intelligence's latest
Roti Rice Rate (RRR) report. The ratings agency also cautioned that below-normal monsoon rainfall could keep food inflation elevated in the coming months if crop yields are affected.
According to the report, the average cost of preparing a vegetarian thali at home rose 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in June, while the cost of a non-vegetarian thali increased 6%.
The increase was driven by higher prices of tomatoes, onions, vegetable oils and LPG cylinders, which more than offset the benefit of lower potato prices.
Tomato prices surged 31% from a year ago as delayed and lower summer crop planting reduced market arrivals. Vegetable oil prices also remained elevated due to supply disruptions arising from the conflict in West Asia, while higher LPG cylinder prices pushed up the overall cost of preparing meals at home.
Commenting on the findings, Pushan Sharma, director, CRISIL Intelligence, says, "In June, the cost of home-cooked vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis increased 5% and 6% on-year, respectively, because of higher prices of tomatoes, onions, vegetable oils and LPG cylinders, which offset the decline in potato prices."
The report highlights that the southwest monsoon has remained weaker than normal so far. Between 1 June and 7 July 2026, cumulative rainfall across the country was around 17% below the long-period average.
Region-wise, rainfall was around 15% below normal in south India, 19% below normal in northwest India and 39% below normal in east and northeast India. Central India, however, recorded rainfall marginally above normal at 1%.
CRISIL says rainfall activity strengthened during the past week, advancing into additional parts of Gujarat and more areas of Haryana and Punjab. The monsoon is expected to cover the entire country over the next two to three days.
The agency says the recent spell of rain should improve soil moisture and support ongoing kharif sowing. However, it cautions that the overall rainfall outlook remains below normal, underscoring the critical importance of the timing and geographical distribution of rainfall for agricultural production.
According to the report, an extended rainfall deficit during critical crop growth stages could reduce kharif paddy yields, particularly during the flowering stage. This could tighten rice supplies from major producing states, including Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra, supporting market prices.
CRISIL also expects prices of urad and moong to remain firm due to lower opening stocks and weather-related production losses in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. Tighter supplies could keep pulse prices elevated in the near term.
The report warns that onion and tomato prices may remain under pressure if rainfall continues to be deficient. Lower rabi onion stocks have already supported prices in recent months, while any adverse impact on the kharif crop could tighten supplies further. As a result, onion prices are expected to remain firm over the medium term due to tight rabi supplies and delayed kharif arrivals.
Tomato prices are also expected to remain elevated through July and August due to delayed kharif planting and seasonally lean supplies. However, the staggered arrival of the summer crop, particularly from southern states where farmers replanted after heat stress, is expected to prevent a sharper seasonal spike. CRISIL says tomato prices will remain highly sensitive to any further weather disruptions during July, as excessive rainfall or logistical disruptions in key producing regions could tighten supplies further.
While potato prices have declined in recent months, CRISIL expects them to edge up gradually as cold-storage inventories are released into the market and fresh supplies remain limited.
Looking ahead, the agency expects tomato prices to ease from September with improved arrivals of the kharif crop from southern and western India. However, it says the pace of correction will depend on the distribution of monsoon rainfall, crop health and the smooth movement of supplies. These factors will determine whether household food inflation moderates in the second half of the monsoon season or remains elevated due to supply-side constraints.
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