Over 92% of the respondents in a survey of urban people expressed deep dissatisfaction over the current administrative and political system and are looking forward to a fundamental change in the next general elections

India is a few months away from its five-yearly general elections. The outcome of this election will set the pace of India’s future economic growth considering the present regime has led to a sharply declining economy, growing unemployment, high inflation and numerous charges of corruption. High levels of corruption and poor governance would lead India’s 700 million-plus voters seek greater accountability from political candidates and look for those who could forge a change. Kartavya, an organisation which conducts Mumbai level inter-collegiate debate competitions in association with Mumbai University, conducted a survey focussed on what the respondents felt about the current state of the political system in India, what they expect of an ideal prime ministerial candidate and who they think is an ideal candidate for becoming a prime minister, and why. 
 

The survey which was open for over a period of two months, received over 2,500 responses with over 600 offline responses and nearly 1,900 online responses. India continues to face several challenges of poor economic growth, rising inflation and worsening current account deficit. Over 92% of the survey participants mentioned that they were not happy with the current political system.
 

When asked, which is the single biggest problem with India, more than half the participants replied that corruption is a major concern. As many as 35% of the survey respondents cite poor administration as the single biggest problem. Comparatively, very few are of the opinion that the poor justice system and inflation is the single biggest problem in India. Ultimately, corruption is probably the root cause of all evils.

When it came to rating the current government on corruption, cross border relations, infrastructure and economic development, majority of the participants rated—‘very bad’. Professor Abhijit A Gosavi, associate professor, Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering at Missouri University of Science and Technology, statistically analysed the entire survey. He combined the ‘Poor’ and ‘Very bad’ responses into one group and the remaining into another, and termed the other group as ‘acceptable’. According to his study, “for each of the factors—corruption, cross-border relations, infrastructure, and economic development, a statistically significant majority rates the government poorly, i.e., not acceptable (again politically significant).”

It is evident that the respondents are looking for a responsible PM candidate. On being asked as to what are the characteristics they would look for in a PM candidate, majority (77%) of the participants said that they would look for a great administrator who can deliver growth. According to Professor Gosavi, “Question 10 has too many options that cannot be combined. For such cases, advanced statistical tools such as regression/ANOVA will be needed.” He further says, “Roughly speaking, it is clear that a ‘great administrator who can deliver growth’ is most important to those surveyed.”

In probably the most important question of the survey, on who the participants feel, is the best candidate for the post of the PM, as many as 87% of the respondents have picked Narendra Modi, chief minister of Gujarat. “The all important question. Although, it will be nice to see if there is any statistical difference between Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal, I suspect any tests there will reveal a statistical tie. But since only one person wins an election (even in a parliamentary system), we can combine all the non-Modi responses into one. The intervals are far apart; no question of overlap here even if we take the confidence level to 99%, indicating that Modi is very, very clearly a favourite with the surveyed group — beating everyone else hollow,” mentioned Professor Gosavi. The list included names of Manmohan Singh, LK Advani, Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mamta Banerjee and J Jayalalithaa.

When asked the reason for selecting their best candidate, majority of the respondents who chose Narendra Modi, mentioned that he is a good administrator and has proven his ability as the chief minister of Gujarat. From the survey it remains unresolved whether Modi is a polarising figure or not. According to the professor, “If we combine the ‘No’ and ‘Can’t say’, the ‘No’ and ‘Can’t say’ are winning statistically. I also analyzed this question again as 13A, leaving out those who said can’t say (is there really anyone who doesn’t have an opinion on him either way?!). That reveals a statistical tie! So it looks like it is hard to give a clear-cut answer to this question.”

In two separate questions when asked whether Modi is an able administrator and whether the Gujarat model will work on a pan-India basis. A very significant proportion thinks he is an able administrator and a significant majority believes the model will work pan India.

Similarly in questions on whether the media targets Modi in an unfair manner and whether the Godhra riots have been given more media coverage than other riots in India here again, a significant margin feels he is indeed unfairly targeted.
 

On asked whether they would vote in the upcoming general elections, as many as 90% of the respondents replied that they will vote in the general elections of 2014. This is significantly high considering that just a little over half the participants had voted in the 2009 general elections. On asking the reason why one did not participate in the 2009 general elections, 62.5% of the respondents mentioned that they did not have a voters’ card. According to Mr Gosavi, “This (question) was not easy to analyze given our methodology. But I tried to combine all the responses other than “Don’t have a voter card in my city” to imply that all others do have a voter card. The result shows that a significant majority do NOT have voter cards, and perhaps this issue needs to be resolved?”


With the Indian political scenario is becoming increasingly chaotic by the day, chances are we may be headed for early general elections. What happens in these elections will matter a lot. In this survey, majority of the participants were from in and around Mumbai and other urban areas. While almost 46% of the votes were cast by women in the 2009 general elections, just about 15% of the survey respondents were women. It is clear that even net savvy women on social media are neither interested in politics or personal finance issues. As we mentioned in our Cover Story on bank charges, (Read: Wake Up to Your Bank Charges) a massive 92% of the 1,500+ respondents to a survey o banking charges were men. This is rather shocking and indicates low financial literacy and apathy even among educated women, since almost everyone has at least one bank account.