Fortnightly Market View: News-Driven Moves

Indian markets continue to remain buoyant with the steady news of Narendra Modi’s many measures

 

After some listless and shallow trading towards the end of 2014, on the second trading day of 2015, the Sensex shot up by a huge 350 points, supporting our belief (articulated a month ago) that declines will not be deep because a lot of money is ready to come into India which has...

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Nifty, Sensex headed higher – Weekly closing report

Nifty may hit 8500 over the coming week

 

The S&P BSE Sensex closed the week that ended on 2nd January at 27,888 (up 646 points or 2.37%), while the NSE's CNX Nifty ended at 8,395 (up 195 points or 2.37%).

 

Previous week we had mentioned that a weekly close below 8,140 on the Nifty may signify deeper correction. Nifty went higher during the week with almost all the gains coming on the last day.


Last Friday's gains continued on Monday as well. Nifty closed at 8,247 (up 46 points or 0.56%). For the entire session, the benchmark managed to stay above Friday’s close.

 

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said manufacturing continued to be a concern, despite reforms initiated by the government. Commerce and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said inflows of foreign direct investment into India rose by about 25% to $17.35 billion in the April-October period of the current fiscal.


On Tuesday, Nifty managed to stay above 8,215, the support level mentioned by us in Monday's closing report. Nifty closed at 8,248 (up 2 points or 0.02%).


The Indian economy is better placed than it was six months ago because of slowing inflation, political stability and a lower current account deficit, but the banking sector remains subdued because of weak demand for credit and pressure on asset quality, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its bi-annual Financial Stability Report.


On Wednesday, the market closed in the positive for the fourth consecutive session. Nifty closed at 8,283 (up 34 points or 0.42%).


The Ministry of Finance made appointments of MD&CEOs of four nationalised banks, Indian Overseas Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, Vijaya Bank and United Bank of India. The government has decided to separate the post of Chairman and MD&CEO. Fiscal deficit was Rs 5.25 trillion ($83.08 billion) during April-November, or 98.9% of the full-year target, data showed on Wednesday. The deficit was 93.9% during the same period a year ago.


With not many triggers on Thursday and markets worldwide celebrating New Year, Nifty moved in a narrow range and closed marginally higher at at 8,284 (up 1 point or 0.02%). After market hours on Thursday, the government decided to increase basic excise duty on petrol and diesel (both branded and unbranded) by Rs2 per litre to build 15,000 kilometres of roads during current and next financial year.

On Friday, Nifty shot up rising to 8,395 (up 111 points or 1.35%). Adjusted for seasonal factors, the headline HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index climbed to a two-year high of 54.5 in December, up from 53.3 in November.


Among the Nifty stocks, the top five stocks for the week were BHEL (9%); JSPL (8%); Sesa Sterlite (7%); Asian Paints (7%) and Tata Motors (5%) while the top five losers were M&M (-2%); Bajaj Auto (-1%); Punjab National Bank (-1%); Reliance Industries (0%) and BPCL (0%).


Of the 1,483 companies on the NSE, 1,203 companies closed in the green, 258 companies closed in the red while 22 companies closed flat.


Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, the top five and the bottom five sectors for this week were:

 

ML Top sector

 

ML Worst sector

 

Shipping

13%

Refineries

0%

Con_Epc_Infra

6%

Oil & Gas

1%

Non-Ferrous Metals

5%

Auto

1%

Financial Services

5%

Media

1%

Farm & Farm Inputs

4%

Sugar

2%

 

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Nifty, Sensex headed higher– Friday closing report

Nifty will move up as long it closes above 8,380 tomorrow

 

After the indices moved in a range on Thursday and closed marginally higher, today the indices opened with a gap and rose gradually except for a small pullback later in the session.


S&P BSE Sensex opened at 27,521 while S&P CNX Nifty opened at 8,289. Both the indices hit their respective days low almost at the same level when the sessions began. Sensex moved up to the level 27,937 while Nifty reached up to 8,411. Sensex closed at 27,888 (up 380 points or 1.38%) while Nifty closed at 8,395 (up 111 points or 1.35%). NSE recorded a volume of 82.33 crore shares. India VIX fell 8.19% to close at 13.7950.


PSU bank stocks will be in focus as the two-day brainstorming session of the finance minister, the RBI governor and chiefs of state-owned banks began today. Among other things, the meeting's agenda includes consolidation and restructuring of PSU banks for better efficiency, governance and capital efficiency. At the session's end tomorrow, a reforms blueprint for phased implementation will be presented to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.


The RBI yesterday allowed banks to use immovable and movable assets, financial securities and corporate or personal guarantees as a security to loans given through external commercial borrowings (ECBs). The change was made with a view to liberalise the option of securities, RBI said.


After market hours yesterday the government decided to increase basic excise duty on petrol and diesel (both branded and unbranded) by Rs2 per litre to build 15,000 kilometres of roads during current and next financial year.


The government yesterday also announced the setting up of NITI Aayog (National Institution for Transforming India) as replacement for the Planning Commission and said that the NITI Aayog will seek to provide a critical directional and strategic input into the development process.


Adjusted for seasonal factors, the headline HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to a two-year high of 54.5 in December, up from 53.3 in November.


Gujarat Pipavav (12.30%) was among the top two gainers in the ‘A’ group on the BSE.

 

The stock hit its new 52-week high today. It was recently in the news, as it has entered into an arrangement with NYK Auto Logistics (India) Pvt. Ltd., wherein NYK has been sub-leased land for developing a dedicated common user integrated RO-RO (roll-on/roll-off) yard at Pipavav Port. The yard is expected to be commissioned in the second quarter of 2015 and will be provided with all port and related facilities by Gujarat Pipavav Port.


Muthoot Finance (4.51%) was among the top four losers in ‘A’ group on the BSE. It is set to acquire 51% stake in Asia Asset Finance Plc, Sri Lanka. HDFC (4.30%) was the top gainer in Sensex 30 pack. All other housing finance companies were in demand too.


Mahindra & Mahindra (0.92%) was the top loser in the Sensex 30 stock. Weak December sales pulled the stock lower.


On Thursday US markets were closed for New Year's Day holiday. Except for KLSE Composite (0.48%) all the other Asian indices which were trading today closed in the green. Hang Seng (1.07%) was the top gainer. European indices were trading in the red while US Futures were trading higher.

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