Food Inflation Bites: CRISIL Reports Higher Thali Costs Driven by Tomatoes and Cooking Fuel

Moneylife Digital Team 04 June 2026

Consumer Interest

Rising tomato prices, costlier cooking gas and higher edible oil prices pushed up the cost of preparing meals at home in May, increasing the burden on household budgets across the country, according to CRISIL Intelligence's latest ‘Roti Rice Rate (RRR)’ report. The report found that the cost of a home-cooked vegetarian thali rose 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in May, while the cost of a non-vegetarian thali increased 7% compared with the same month last year.

CRISIL's monthly indicator tracks the average cost of preparing a thali at home based on input prices prevailing across north, south, east and west India. The analysis measures the impact of changes in food and fuel prices on household expenditure and identifies the key ingredients driving the movement in costs.

According to the report, tomato prices emerged as the biggest contributor to the increase in food plate costs. Prices surged 57% year-on-year to ₹36 per kg in May from ₹23 per kg a year earlier. The sharp increase was attributed to a 3%-4% decline in rabi production in southern states, lower summer crop acreage and adverse weather conditions that affected yields.

Vegetable oil and LPG prices also contributed significantly to the rise in meal costs. CRISIL noted that vegetable oil prices increased 8% on-year, while LPG cylinder prices rose 7%, largely due to ongoing global supply disruptions.

Commenting on the findings, Pushan Sharma, director at CRISIL Intelligence, said higher prices of tomatoes, vegetable oil and LPG were the primary factors behind the increase in both vegetarian and non-vegetarian thali costs during May.

The increase in thali costs would have been steeper had it not been for a decline in the prices of some key staples. Onion prices fell 6% y-o-y due to fresh rabi arrivals, while potato prices declined 14% following higher production and the release of cold-storage stocks. Pulses prices also eased by 2%, supported by duty-free imports of tur and adequate domestic supplies.

The report showed that the average cost of a vegetarian thali rose to ₹27.4 in May 2026 from ₹26.2 in May 2025, while the cost of a non-vegetarian thali increased to ₹54.8 from ₹51.2 during the same period. On a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis became 3% costlier in May.

For non-vegetarian meals, rising broiler chicken prices further added to the cost burden. CRISIL estimated that broiler prices increased 9% y-o-y and account for nearly half the cost of a non-vegetarian thali. The increase was attributed to intense summer heat which led to higher bird mortality and reduced poultry supplies.

Looking ahead, CRISIL expects tomato prices to remain elevated during June-August as lower summer sowing and heat-related concerns in key northern producing states are likely to tighten supplies. Potato prices are also expected to edge higher as the rabi harvest season concludes and more expensive cold-storage stocks enter the market.

The rating agency further warned that onion prices could increase in the coming months following an estimated 5% decline in rabi production this year. However, it expects pulses prices to remain largely subdued because of comfortable domestic availability, robust government procurement and adequate buffer stocks.

According to CRISIL, pulses production is projected to increase marginally in the 2027 marketing year, while government stocks have risen to around 43 lakh tonnes, the highest level in the past three years. Although lower tur imports from Mozambique could create some supply concerns, the agency believes adequate domestic production, duty-free imports of tur and urad, and strong buffer stocks will help contain any significant increase in pulse prices.

The report suggests that while some food categories may remain under pressure in the coming months, ample pulse supplies could provide partial relief to household budgets grappling with elevated vegetable and cooking fuel costs.

Comments