According to Rajan Alexander of Dev Consult Group, which tracks international weather forecasts, the El Niño appears to be virtually struggling to establish itself for the last couple of months. Experts say that considering that the large part of country is already in a drought-like situation, the news will severely impact Indian farming community

International climate forecast models are talking about early signs of an emerging El Niño which are manifesting the drought condition. This comes contrary to the forecast of the Indian weather officials which had predicted a normal monsoon and ruled out the impact of an El Niño weather pattern on the monsoon. Experts say that considering that the large part of country is already in a drought-like situation, the news will severely impact Indian farming community.  

El Niño refers to the abnormal warming in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, creating havoc weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region. It is linked with poor rains and drought-like situation in Southeast Asia and Australia.

According to Rajan Alexander of Dev Consult Group, which tracks international weather forecasts, the El Niño currently appears to be virtually struggling to establish itself for the last couple of months. The latest forecast by the Australian POAMA model (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia) appears to indicate El Niño threshold values being reached by the latter part of June and strengthen right through September and beyond. However, the expected event is most likely to be a weak one.  

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast average rainfall. LS Rathore, director general, IMD was quoted saying, "Yes there are chances of El Niño phenomenon emerging in the Pacific which may not favour rains in the month of August-September. But overall monsoon is likely to be normal. El Niño is just one of the parameters being considered while forecasting".

Forecast on the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (an irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperatures in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean) is also negative says Dev Consult. "The POAMA IOD forecast indicates a negative IOD right through June-September, with the period June-July being expected to be relatively stronger. As in the case with the El Niño, the saving grace is that it is likely to be a weak event.  However, when this POAMA IOD forecast is juxtaposed with their El Niño forecast, this could result in a below average monsoon rainfall this season, if these models are right."
 
In India the monsoon is expected in less than a month over south-west coast. However, it requires a temperature/pressure gradient to propel into the northern India. Such a condition is provided by sustained heating of the north-west and lower pressure but the process has been delayed for almost a month now.

Considering such phenomena, Dev Consult explains that, "This happens to be the other major problem that goes against the expectation of a normal monsoon season. Weather models had indicated a small window for heating to begin this week, but an incoming western disturbance appears to have closed it somewhat. Rain inducing western disturbances (WD) is passing low-pressure waves which set up thunderstorms, thunder squalls, dust storms, rain, thundershowers and even hail. All these serve only to put a cap on the heating process, which normally sets up heat waves to severe heat waves over north-west, central, east and east-central India."

Jai Shankar, an agricultural scientist, was quoted saying, "Farmers will be able to sow crops on time in June-July, which means field crops will be at the maturity stage by the time El Niño makes its impact felt."

Explaining the current status on El Niño, Dev Consult says that climate indicators across the tropical Pacific Ocean remain neutral, ruling out possibility of neither El Niño nor La Niña. It noted that during the past fortnight, the tropical Pacific Ocean reached its warmest state since May 2010. However, all major indicators of El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), including cloudiness, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, currently are within the ENSO-neutral range. According to the Australian Met Office, the NIÑO3.4 SST has risen to +0.1 deg C the highest since May 2010. But according to the US-based The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the latest weekly NIÑO3.4 SST is -0.1 deg C. Meanwhile, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued rebounding during the past week, after remaining around ?7 during the preceding week. The latest (6 May) 30-day SOI value is +3.7.

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