There is a continued sense of concern over the near-term outlook on powergen and exports segments for Cummins India, according to Nomura Financial Advisory and
Securities in its research note on the company based on its meeting with Rajiv Batra, CFO, Cummins India. However, export realisations could lead to gains in margins on account of the depreciating rupee.
Nomura recommends investors to remain focused on the fundamentally superior business model and franchise that Cummins India offers with a solid long-term opportunity in a power-short India. Nomura had been waiting for a better entry point given its expensive valuations so far. The Cummins India has a ‘Neutral’ recommendation with a target price of Rs382.
In the long term, Nomura believes that India’s industrial sector offers the unfolding of a substantial opportunity in coming years. In particular, it sees potential opportunities in niche segments. Powergen is one of the best hi-tech niche segments.
The business forecast for Cummins India, according to Nomura analysts, is given below:
According to the CFO of the company, the overall economic slowdown is a big worry and that has led to the postponement of capex decisions, thus, hurting back-up power demand. A continued slowdown in capex decisions for industrial/ commercial projects could continue to hamper powergen growth beyond what is already visible, Nomura adds in its research note.
On the industrial segment, the Nomura research note mentions that the company had been doing well until now led by water well rigs (40% of the segment now) on the back of water scarcity last year. However, good monsoons this year could be a concern for the demand from this segment, in our view. Other bit of demand support for the segment continues from construction equipment original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) which are seeing increased offtake due to better export pricing.
On the exports side, according to Nomura, only 15% of the company’s exports in the high HP segment (2/3rd of all exports) are into the US, while Middle East, Europe/Russia and Africa contribute about 40% where demand is still declining. As such, hopes of a US recovery benefitting exports are misled, in Nomura’s view.
The CFO also expects that the replacement cycle of DG sets will elongate from the current 8-10 years to 10-15 years as the usage of gensets is decreasing following better power availability, concludes the Nomura research note.
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