Nifty may reach 5,450 if it manages to be stay above 5,185

Weak global cues, lower-than-expected industrial output growth for February and disappointing guidance by IT bellwether Infosys were seen as the main reasons for the domestic market falling 2% in the week. All eyes will now be on the inflation numbers for March, the RBI’s annual monetary policy, to be announced on 17th April and the ongoing earnings reports.

The Sensex closed 392 points lower at 17,095 and the Nifty finished the week at 5,207, down 115 points. The market is likely to remain cautious in next week. The Nifty may touch 5,450 if it manages to be stay above 5,185.

Disappointing US jobless data, which was released in the previous week, pulled the Asian markets down on Monday and India was no exception. A late recovery enabled the market, which was flat for most part of the day, settle higher on Tuesday. While gains in Europe perked up the indices in the second half of trade, the news of a massive earthquake off the Indonesian coast resulted in a flat close on Wednesday.

Lingering concerns about the debt crisis in Europe resulted in the indices paring their gains, but closing in the positive on Thursday. Dismal fourth quarter results from Infosys and a negative opening of the European indices saw the market plunge on Friday.

In the sectoral space, BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (up 4%) and BSE Healthcare (up 2%) were the top gainers while BSE IT (down 11%) and BSE TECk (down 10%) settled lower.

The top Sensex gainers were Hindustan Unilever (up 6%), ITC, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors (up 4% each) and Cipla (up 3%). The main laggards were Infosys (down 16%), TCS (down 9%), Hindalco Industries, BHEL (down 6% each) and Jindal Steel & Power (down 5%).

The Nifty toppers were HUL (up 7%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 6%), Ranbaxy Laboratories (up 5%), ITC and Tata Motors (up 4% each). Infosys (down 16%), Jaiprakash Associates (down 10%), TCS, Reliance Infrastructure (down 9% each) and ACC (down 6%) were the major losers on the index.

Pulled down by poor performance of manufacturing and consumer goods, India’s industrial growth slipped to 4.1% in February. Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee attributed the decline to rising interest rates and poor domestic demand which was aggravated by global uncertainties.

Meanwhile, the 6.8% industrial expansion in January has been drastically revised to 1.14% with chief statistician TCA Anant admitting ‘slippages’ in data collection. He said the problem mainly arose because of incorrect data on sugar production, though the segment has a small weight on the IIP.

Braving slowdown in the US and Europe, India’s exports crossed $300 billion in 2011-12, but the rising import bill pushed by high crude oil prices and the country’s obsession with bullion sent the trade deficit soaring to $185 billion.

IT giant Infosys on Friday posted a 27% rise in net profit for January-March quarter, but the company’s forecast of weaker revenue growth this fiscal due to an uncertain global economy sent its share spiralling down by 13%— the biggest fall in nearly three years. The company’s chief executive officer SD Shibulal said the year ahead “looks challenging” for IT services.

In international news, analysts have pointed out that the European Central Bank’s three-year refinancing operations (Long Term Refinancing Operations) are not a solution to the continent’s problems.