Cairn India can grow faster if the government policies are more sensible

Cairn India has come a long way in 20 years, having started with 3,000 barrels of oil a day, in Ravaa fields, to a current output of 180,000 barrels, representing 25% of India's needs, which are growing by the hour! They could notch to 300,000 barrels, a thousand leaps forward from the tiny step they took two decades ago. And, when they do, which is within their reach, they would be able to meet 35% of India's oil requirements.

Cairn India, along with its joint venture partner ONGC (Government of India company), holds 70% with the balance 30% stake held by the latter. They operate in four basins and have made 40 discoveries so far. Around 95% of its production is oil and the balance is gas, in which they have shown serious interest in recent times.

It may be recalled that the Rajasthan block initially covered an area of 11,108 sq kms but the licence was given to explore only 10,558 sq kms, as 550 sq km being the unexplored area, which was surrendered, by Cairn India, to the Government, in line with the norms laid down in the Barmer block. Now, once surrendered, it looks like it makes it obligatory for the government to go for an auction once again! This is what Veerappa Moily has recently mentioned in a statement.

It appears that Cairn India has now sought reinstatement of the block to the government and the appeal made by them to the Cabinet, if accepted, would be the right step in the right direction, as this would eliminate new processing cost and loss of time. In any case, we may bear in mind that it is now Cairn India is taking the risk in taking up the exploration costs that may or may not bear any oil or gas for that matter!  Why not give them the chance?

Another important issue that has come up is that the contract for the Rajasthan block is valid till May 2020, hardly seven years away from now, which is, practically small lead time in the oil industry. Cairn India have approached the government that the contract should be actually extended to the full life and economic potential of the block, which, they estimate may be for about 20 years or so. Such a move would enable them to plan their exploration work, investment plans and options which are likely to involve capital expenditure of millions of dollars.

It must be borne in mind that the Rajasthan block was awarded much before the establishment of the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP), which does not stipulate any "expiry" date as such. Since this is the case for new contracts, why not apply to all existing contracts the same rule?

While Cairn India investigates the prospects for oil and gas under the ground, they have, above on hand, clean cash reserves of over $3 billion! Thankfully, when the government permitted them to explore in existing, producing fields, Cairn India took expeditious action and have discovered oil and gas in Barmer basin in Rajasthan, and in Nagaylanka in Andhra Pradesh.

With these encouraging finds, Cairn India hope to invest a substantial portion of this cash reserves in Rajasthan initially, and with others to follow in due course.

Moneylife has carried stories on Cairn India on a regular basis. It may be recalled that Cairn India had sought government clearance to go in for a swap arrangement by which they may be permitted to export the crude oil and gas from Barmer to get a better price in the international market (currently Rajasthan oil is being sold at about 8% to 13% cheaper then Brent) and, in lieu, import cheaper crude that can be supplied to Indian refineries who are designed to handle them with ease. For this, Cairn India had suggested that they would use the service of Indian Oil (a Government of India company), so that everyone benefits.  For, at the moment, India imports crude and does not permit its export. Such a move would benefit refineries like Mangalore Refinery, which has been largely dependent upon Iranian crude.

A look at the web site of Cairn India is educative. The capital expenditure plans are on the anvil and it is apparent that they are awaiting government clearances to take major steps in the right direction.  From the Rajasthan block itself, they project a production of 200,000 to 250,000 barrels a day by 2013-14, just in the next few months.

In addition to their development and expansion plans in India, Cairn India has taken steps to explore in the neighbouring unexplored areas in Sri Lanka, which looks promising, and South Africa. The onshore discovery of oil and gas in Nagaylanka in Andhra Pradesh involves additional investment of about Rs500 crore in the next 2/3 years, details of which are expected.

On the whole, in the next few months, Cairn India, being an active member of the Vedanta family, may spring pleasant surprises for its share holders, considering its huge cash reserves, and the capex plans ahead for its future expansion and development.

(AK Ramdas has worked with the Engineering Export Promotion Council of the ministry of commerce. He was also associated with various committees of the Council. His international career took him to places like Beirut, Kuwait and Dubai at a time when these were small trading outposts; and later to the US.)