Belief Rally

Beware of the tricks your mind plays, especially in a bull market

In the 1980s, after a lot of analysis, I had bought some shares of a company making garments on contract for an exporter. There were signs that Indian garment exports would surge and this company was an early entrant. The investment did well in the first year. After that, gradually, the share price started to fall. However, I...

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  • It’s All about Expectations

    Is the market overvalued? Here is a way to test

    The pace of the upsurge in stock prices has confounded almost everyone. Most people believe that the market is overvalued, but they also believe
    that it has further room to run up in the near term. Is it liquidity alone that
    is driving the markets or is there enough strength in the Indian corporate
    sector to justify these valuations? I...

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  • Turbulence Ahead

    Bull markets rationalise every event and count it as a positive

    The markets have been on a tear, since late August. The run-up has been so sharp that I feel giddy. Liquidity is part of the reason, but contributing to it is the solid corporate performance and the changed circumstances in other markets. How have changed circumstances elsewhere helped us? The India story has not yet been...

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