Behavioural finance: ‘It seemed so obvious’
Moneylife Digital Team 24 March 2011

That’s hindsight bias in action

In 1991, researchers Martin Bolt and John Brink asked students to predict how the US Senate would vote on the confirmation of a Supreme Court nominee. Prior to the vote, 58% of the participants predicted that the nominee would be confirmed. When the same group was polled again, he had been confirmed; 78% of the participants claimed this is what they had...

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