43% of the respondents expect markets to rally post Budget: Edelweiss

Moneylife Digital Team 27 February 2013

Edelweiss conducted a survey to gauge the market sentiment on Budget Day. Majority of the respondents seem to be optimistic.

As always, market participants are eager to gauge the prevailing sentiment as well as expectations on the Budget Day. For this purpose, Edelweiss conducted a survey and revealed that there seems to be some optimism prevailing and the sentiment is, by and large, positive.

The survey gauged the impact of budget on the Nifty Index along with the expected levels for the Nifty in the one month post-budget.

The brokerage said that 43% of the respondents expect a post-budget rally in the market followed by 34% expecting the budget to be a non-event. Only a small number (23%) expect the budget to trigger a breakdown in the market, said the Edelweiss survey. With current levels of Nifty at 5,800, roughly 48% of the participants expect the benchmark to settle in the range of 5,900-6,000. Around 26% of the participants expect the Nifty to drop to the range of 5,500-5,600.

It is interesting to note that despite the relative bullishness, not many are expecting a big

rally (i.e. expect Nifty to cross 6,100 and more), indicating that, perhaps, the government has lot of work on its hands to improve long term

Around 43% of the respondents said that the Budget will be a positive one and will trigger a rally, while 34% said that it will be a non-event. Over the last few years, the Budget has become merely a sideshow and fewer investors, managers and consumers care about it anymore.

Consumers will be interested in the personal/direct taxation part of the Budget which is probably the most important part, regardless of reforms or not. Either way, it is expected that finance minister P Chidambaram has some tricks up his sleeve, given that he had gone selling the “India Story” to international investors in Hong Kong and Singapore and is expected to live up to foreign investors’ expectations. Edelweiss, in its survey said, “Obviously the key is in the hands of the FM that will drive the market direction post budget with markets hoping for positive surprises.”

Comments

User

Vinay Joshi

1 decade ago

Why 317 & 93 pts lost? Sensex & Nifty resp.26th. On global cues!

27th it gained 137 & 35 resp. Why?

Derailed Rail Budget is the pointer to Union Budget!

There is no scope to seek electoral dividends [even if ten states are going to polls].

Talk of GDP, CAD & fiscal, inflation, consumption, subsidies, infra, capex, Q3 earnings, oil prices [Iran imports coming to a standstill], DTC suddenly sprung tho' GST not coming. Divestment target missed, 2G no mobillisation

There can't be big reforms as awakened 'animal spirit'!

If PC, presenting record equaling 8th budget, will also have to address how to get growth back with no viable alternatives.

The economic survey projected growth 6.1-6.7% isn't realist for average 1.5% increase FY14.

As regards stock indices, Italy vote revives euro crises worries which has injected tensions including forex. To what extent can the ECB be a protector when Germany yields [& economy]likely to contract.

In such a scenario FM's articulation of the issues with certain pragmatic aspects will give some euphoria for next two trading sessions.

By next week Nifty correction start & expected in 8/10 sessions to 5450.

Global cues factored in PE 16 is strong.

Regards,