Stocks
Why the Sensex fell by more than 700 points
A combination of factors, including disenchantment with the Modi government leads to a sharp fall of an already overvalued market
 
The 30-scrip BSE Sensitive Index (Sensex), a benchmark index of the Indian equities markets, plunged over 700 points on Wednesday. Traders and market players attributed fall to several factors that weighed heavily on the minds of investors and businessmen on the eve of Narendra Modi government completing one year later this month.
 
The Sensex Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), which opened at 27,473.36 points, closed at 26,717.37, down 722.77 points or 2.63% from the previous day's close at 27,440.14 points. The index had made a lifetime high 30024.74 on 4th March just after a lacklustre Union budget. Almost all the sectors were trading in red. Capital goods, power, realty, consumer durables, metal and banking stocks came under heavy selling pressure. The 50-scrip Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) tanked 227 points or 2.74% to close at 8097 points. 
 
Of the 30 stocks in the Sensex, only one – Bharti Airtel – was a gainer. Of the 29 stocks that fell today, BHEL fell by 6.07%, ICICI Bank fell by 4.77% and Larsen & Toubro by 4.65%. The other big losers were Maruti, NTPC and Axis Bank. The BSE S&P capital goods index tanked by 3.76%, power index fell by 3.55%, Realty index dropped by 3.32% and consumer durables index fell by 3.12%. Oil marketing companies such as Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum fell 3-5% as oil prices crude oil went past $60 in Nymex. ONGC fell 3% and RIL 1.5%.
 
There is no single reason for this sharp decline. Over the past one year, the markets have been rising on hope that the Modi government will bring in far reaching reforms that will ease the problems of the doing business, and allow them to expand and create jobs. The market players also hoped that the PM will keep up his poll promises of “minimum government, maximum governance” by cutting down on wasteful government expenditure and reforming the public sector companies. In anticipation, the Sensex hit 30,000 when it was valued at 23 times the profits of four trailing quarters.
 
But the reality looks a bit different now. Arun Shourie, a member of the previous Union government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, and an important intellectual of the right went on the air on May Day blasting the Narendra Modi government for lacking in clear thinking, promising a lot but delivering too little and projecting more than what it has achieved. 
 
He pointed out that there is no big picture in the economic policy, only expediency. He also charged that the Prime Minister’s Office is a large, centralized power centre and is now a bottleneck.  As a result, India Inc. keeps warning about lack of change, and on the ground, investment has not picked up while the government spends time and energy managing the headlines. 
 
Worse, a government that promised a stable and non-adversarial tax regime, suddenly sang a different tune. In late 2014, the Modi government started sending demand notices to FIIs for paying MAT on capital gains even though these perversely overrode the laid down benefits enjoyed by foreign entities under the country's bilateral tax treaties and most FIIs say that they have already distributed profits of prior years and so may not have the money to pay the tax. 
 
This was first time ever, any government had levied MAT on FIIs when the law is totally unclear on this, and Modi government has promised no tax terrorism. When the FIIs rushed to the finance ministry, Mr Jaitley used his discretion and added long-term capital gains of FIIs to the list of items exempt from MAT in the Budget of 2015. 
 
The government has subsequently backed down but its move on MAT set against little change in most other areas, has shaken up the investor and business community who suspect that this government, is interested in maintaining status quo. The largest public sector banks remain headless while the government is trying to bring in dubious criteria to appoint PSU chiefs. Public sector companies have neither got better boards, nor more autonomy. The government has been unable to get the opposition on board to make legislative changes it says it needs to get going on the economy. Indeed, its lack of success on several fronts has rejuvenated the opposition. 
 
The government was given a stroke of good luck when oil prices crashed, allowing the rupee to remain stable when the dollar was shooting up over the last six months. This comfortable period is over too. Oil price has risen 50% from the low of $42 it hit on March 18th. Now rupee is again under pressure, companies are unable to grow and there is worry about when the Modi government will start delivering on governance and reforms. In the circumstances, the market, which has been in the overvalued zone for the last six months, decided to give up some gains.

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COMMENTS

LALIT SHAH

2 years ago

Why market surge 900 points in two days.? There some powerfull lobby is active in market ? Who can DE-MAT & MAT ON FII. WHO CAN guide WHETHER DEPARTMENT TO FORCAST THAT MONSOON RAINS WILL BE BELLOW NORMAL. WHEN THEY CANT FORECAST THAT ICE FALLS IN GUJARAT IN SUMMER. BUT 100% SOME POWERFULL PEOPLES PLAYING HEAVILY IN MARKET.SEBI CAN'T SEE THIS TYPES POWERFULL SMART PEOPLES ACTIVITIES. LOOKING FORWARD TO JET AIRWAYS AND SPICE JETS SUCH LOBBYING WHO CARRIED JET 230 TO 480 SPICE JET 6 TO 20 ,...... LOOK IN SIR YOU WILL smelling SOME INTERESTING STORY IN IT. MODI HO YA MOHAN HUMMAM ME SUB..... HEY.
WHITH OUT THAT AAJ TAQ AZAD HINDUSTAN ME KISI SEHNSHAH NE 10 LAKH RUPEES KA SUIT NAHI PEHNA HOGA.
NA TO ADANI- AMBANI TATA HAS WERE,... BHARAT JAROOR GROW HOGA YEHI SUCH HEY MAN

Mr Jitendra

2 years ago

A correction was imminent at this stage. Markets were rising since April 2014 and were seen rising. Crude prices have risen 18% than they were in March 2015. In March 2015 the peak index was at 30025 (intra day). Today it has corrected only 11% from that peak. Hence a healthy correction can put the indices back on focus of investors.
One must keep a close watch on Euro zone because Greece may default and get out of Euro. Euro may crash, dollar may become overvalued. That may send the rupee spiralling down. The last time Indian markets corrected heavily in the month was May 2006 and the reason was the Finance Minister was asking FIIs to pay 41% tax. Today's government is asking FIIs the MAT.
Everything can be related.

Senior Citizen

2 years ago

Indian Equity Markets are influenced by FIIs ranging from Hedge Funds to SWFs and Pension Funds. They also have HFT/Algo/carry trading platforms. Our markets are shallow hence sharp movements. Retail investors can use this opp. to enter at lower levels. But real bargains will only come when Global crisis surfaces (when all FIIs turn sellers in a herd like mentality). We are long way off from that.

B. Yerram Raju

2 years ago

For those who invest in shares, they should know volatility is the name of the game. Second, with increasing FII, who can walk away with the investments in either industry or economy under stress, such volatility would continue. Third, global financial integration ipso facto means these risks that have to be taken in our stride. Heavens are not going to fall in a day's upset. They keep occurring. Hold on investors in India - is the message.

Gopalakrishnan T V

2 years ago

The mismatch between the talk and action has been taking away the image of the Government and the confidence that the Government would deliver as promoised has been eroding fast. The tinkering approach and the greed to augment revenue without a long term vision are adversely affecting the economic growth and the investors and business men shy away from long term investments. No concrete policy has been implemented for the last one year except some rhetoric and popular announcements. Public have lost confidence in the Governance system.Thjough the inflation has been brought down technically, the expenditures for day to day living have gone up considerably for middle income and lower income group through enhanced oil prices, service taxes literally on all items of expenditure including conveyance expenditures incurred by the people for their day to day commutation. Travel costs have increased by more than 50 % for an average middle class man during the last one year after the change of the Government in 2014 is a reality. The prices of real estate have gone up and black money deals have increased. Minimum Government and maximum Governance have turned out top be a damn squib and people are getting disgusted. While Mr Modi and some of his Ministers still enjoy the goodwill of the people and expectations are still there on the performance of the Government for ache din ahead
but the confidence in the bueaucracy and the capability of deleveing as per the promises at the time of election by and large has been on the decline.

NANDAKUMAR M S

2 years ago

Moneylife Digital Team (credit for this story) seems more like from Arun Shourie-B team! When Nifty rises People have confidence in Modi and when it goes down it denotes disenchantment with Modi! Strange logic!

REPLY

LALIT SHAH

In Reply to NANDAKUMAR M S 2 years ago

Dear n Kumar
I think that u r 4m those andha bhaqtgan.Arun souri is 4m BJP-RSS.
He revailed reality between triputy and party also public who voted for achhedin and reality of joomla promising which was to mislead nation for gating power and ENJOING everyday lavish lifestyle which was he had dream while selling tea on platform and enjoyed with 10 Lakh's suits
AAJ KAL duniya bhar ke firrangi yo ko make in india ka sell ke marketing pe hay
Jay ho Bharatmama ki jai

NANDAKUMAR M S

In Reply to LALIT SHAH 2 years ago

I can only pity your inference!

LALIT SHAH

2 years ago

NDA-2 ENJOYED FRUITS OF HARD WORK OF UPA-2 IN LAST 9 MONTHS. BUT WE ALL KNOW THAT SINCE P.M.F.M AND HIS TEAM HAS DONE NOTHING EXCEPT ABUSING UPA ONLY THEY WILL DO ALL IN 2022 AND WHAT HIGH PROMISES GIVEN BY P.M. DURING ELECTIONS HE HIM SELF DECLARED ALL WHEREAS ELECTION "JUMLA"
NOW A DAYS HE IS VISITNG P.M. AND HIS TEAM TRYING HOW TO EXTRACT MAXIMUM FROM PUBLIC
AS THEY COME TO POWER INCREASED RAIL FARE THAN SERVICE TAX
IN NAME OF SUBSIDIES CHARGED HIGHEST FUEL PRICES AND GAS PRICES
SUCH MUCH ME SUIT BOOT KI JUMLA SARKAR
FAILED TO GIVE PROPER ECONOMIC ATSMOSPHERE. AND ON MARKETING TOUR OF MAKING INDIA LIKE HISTORICAL CARECTOR JECHAND AMICHAND TO SELL INDIA
WE WANT SAMPURN SWADESHI BUT THIS GOVERNMENT CALLING ALL FIRANGI'S FOR PROMOTE LIFE TIME SAVLARY.
LOKMANIYA TILAK MAHATMA GANDHI SARDAR PATEL ALL FREEDOM FIGHTERS DREAMS RUIN
THINK DEPANDANCY ON FDI FII IF THEY EXIT IN SINGAL SHOT YOU CANT
IMAGINE WHAT HAPPENS TO OUR ECONOMY
BAHOT HARD CORE HINDUS SAYS WE WAS ONLY HAVE KNOWLADGE
THAN WHY SEHNSHAH E HIND DUNIYA BHATAK RAHE HAY ?
MARKET IS IN STRONG GRIP OF BEARS AND ANY RISE TO USE FOR EXIT IN HIGH PRICE INDEX STOCKS
SOME SMALL CAP STOCKS LIKELY TO GIVE TRIMONDUOS RETURN IN COMMING 10 TO 12 YEARS
ALL THINKING THAT SENSEX WILL 100000 I ALSO CONFIRM THAT SENSEX WILL BUT IN 2024-2026.
THIS TIME NIFTY TRIGGERED FOR 7500-7000 SOMWHERE IT TAKE SUPPORT
MAY TOMORROW PULLBACK 200-300 POINTS IN SENSEX.
DT.06/05/2015

SuchindranathAiyerS

2 years ago

So, tell me about it.

Lok Sabha nod for pan-India goods-services tax regime
The Lok Sabha on Wednesday gave its consent to a far-reaching amendment to the constitution to pave the way for a pan-India goods and services tax regime and create a unified market across the country, doing away with multiplicity of central and state levies.
 
The Constitution (One Hundred and Twenty Second Amendment) Bill, 2014, was passed by a division with 336 ayes, 11 against and 10 abstentions. Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan announced the bill was approved with two-thirds majority of the house, as required.
 
Earlier, replying to the debate on the amendment bill, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley refuted opposition claims that the government was pushing through some amendments to some provisions without taking the house into confidence and refusing to send it to a parliamentary panel.
 
The finance minister said the same recommendations of the parliamentary panel, when the original bill was referred to it, were incorporated in the amended version and that the opposition had no reason to fault the government on this count.
 
One such amendment, he cited as an example, was to set up a goods and services tax council, with representations from the central and the state governments, to oversee any dispute, rather than leave it to a panel led by a retired Supreme Court judge.
 
Jaitley also warned that referring the amendment bill back to the relevant Standing Committee of Parliament would result in missing the target date for its implementation from April 1 next year, despite the broad consensus that had already been achieved after extensive consultations.
 
The constitutional amendment bill needs to be passed by a two-third majority in both houses of parliament and by the legislatures of half of the states in the country to become a law.
 
The main purpose of the bill is a unified regime that will subsume most indirect taxes levied by the central and state governments such as excise duty, service tax, value added tax, sales tax and octroi to facilitate a common market across the country.
 
"There would be more no tax on tax," the finance minister said referring to how these levies were leading to duplication, escalating the final price paid by customers, stoking inflation, standing in the way of efficient supply chains and preventing economies of scale.
 
He also mentioned that the union cabinet has recently approved payment of compensation to states for the loss they would incur on account of a cut in the central sales tax from four percent to two percent. This payment will be made for five years.
 
Finance ministry officials said preliminary estimates indicated that Rs.33,000 crore can be the amount payable to states and union territories for the entire period, and settling these claims will help create an enabling environment for rollout of the new regime.
 
The Lok Sabha approved a government amendment to help further states in the transition phase, by levying an additional tax of one percent on inter-state trade on goods. Like in the original bill, petroleum products, alcohol and tobacco were kept out of its purview till later.

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Auditor faults Reliance's marketing margins in dollars
India's official auditor has faulted the petroleum ministry for causing excess subsidy on urea of over Rs.200 crore by permitting Reliance Industries to charge a marketing margin on its Krishna-Godavari gas in dollars and not in rupees.
 
"The production sharing contract for KG-D6 block did not provide for marketing margin component," the Comptroller and Auditor General of India said in a report tabled in parliament on Tuesday.
 
"The contractor (Reliance), however, has been charging marketing margin based on the energy equivalent of gas supplied -- i.e. $0.135 per mBtu (million British thermal units)," the report said.
 
"Marketing margin for GAIL (the state-run company) was fixed in Indian rupee, whereas the contractor (Reliance) was charging this in terms of US dollar," said the report, referring to the margin, which is fixed over the government-approved sale price for domestic gas.
 
The report said the ministry had in May 2010 fixed a marketing margin of Rs.200 per thousand cubic metres. But charging it in dollars instead of rupees for a commodity produced, marketed and consumed domestically "is incongruous with Indian market", it added.
 
Exchange rate fluctuations meant the margin, which was Rs.244.31 per unit in 2010-11 increased to Rs.325.51 per unit in 2013-14, the report said.
 
On 15 million standard cubic meters per day of the gas that is supplied to fertiliser units, on an average, the excess amount works out to Rs.201.40 crore, if one takes into account what is paid to GAIL, it said.
 
It also said the government must ensure that the same terms of charging the marketing margin in Indian rupee is applied for natural gas from domestic sources, especially when it is used in areas where the state bears the subsidy burden.
 
The auditor said in December 2011, the oil ministry had asked the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board to determine the margin based on actual costs. Two years later, it asked the watchdog to fix the margin for gas sold to urea units and cooking gas producers.
 
In reply, the regulator said it wanted some more time since it had then decided to retain a consultant in this task, as it involved collection and analysis of data from multiple sources.

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