Citizens' Issues
Western Ghats: Challenges of sustainable development

The World Heritage status could have implications on development in and around the 39 sites from the Western Ghat as UNESCO prescribes creation of additional buffer zones around the natural world heritage sites

UNESCO's World Heritage Committee inscribed the Western Ghats of India as a world heritage site on 1st July. The tag came at the 36th session of the World Heritage Committee (WHC) in St Petersburg in Russia. Altogether 39 sites that dot the Western Ghats landscape will be part of the region that has been designated as WHS. Kerala leads with 20 sites being inscribed in the heritage list followed by Karnataka with 10, Tamil Nadu five and Maharashtra four (see Table 1).

Table 1: List of Western Ghats World Heritage clusters in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu


While environmentalists are rejoicing that constant international scrutiny will curb amassment of forest wealth by vested interests, the state governments have given a guarded reaction. Sceptics are of the view that the tag will make little difference to many ecologically destructive projects that have been implemented or are proposed in the Western Ghats.

Recognition comes after rejection
The world heritage tag for the Western Ghats has come after many glitches. The proposal for including 39 sites in the Western Ghats as world heritage was rejected by the World Heritage Committee in its 35th meeting last year. When the proposal was re-submitted for consideration this year, it was once again on the verge of getting rejected. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), suggested that India should review and refine the proposal to redefine the boundaries of the proposed sites to maintain the contiguity of the forests. The Indian delegation in St Petersburg, however, managed to convince the World Heritage Committee on the merits of India's proposal and also discussed the issue with 21 members of the committee. The intense lobbying paid off, as the Russian delegation moved a proposal which was backed by several Asian and African nations.

Importance of Western Ghats
 

Older than the Himalayas, the Western Ghats are the treasure trove of bio-diversity. In fact they are recognized as one of the eight global hot-spots harbouring a wealth of flora and fauna. The Western Ghats which begin at the Dangs in Gujarat, run through the western parts of Maharashtra, the tiny state of Goa, the Malnad region of Karnataka and the highlands of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, before ending near Kanyakumari.

 

The Ghats are currently known to have more than 5,000 plant and 140 mammal species, 16 of which are endemic, i.e. species found in that area alone. Notably among these being the lion-tailed macaque and the Nilgiri tahr. Out of the 179 species of amphibians found in the Western Ghats, 138 are endemic to the region. It has 508 bird species, 16 of which are endemic, including the Nilgiri flycatcher and the Malabar parakeet.

 

 

The Western Ghats are considered an ecologically sensitive region with nearly 52 species moving one step closer to extinction. Habitat change, over-exploitation, pollution and climate change are the principle pressures causing bio-diversity loss.

 

The need to protect the ecology of the Western Ghats can hardly be over-emphasized.

The UNESCO Mandate
The UNESCO has noted with appreciation India's ongoing commitment to conserving high bio-diversity values of the Western Ghats, but has clearly underlined that more needs to be done. The World Heritage Committee has suggested to the Indian government to take into account the recommendations of the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel. It has also asked the government to strengthen buffer zones to provide increased protection within the nominated sites. The UN body also wants to promote participatory governance approaches through community participation to ensure equitable sharing of benefits. The panel has said that no industrial activity should be allowed without the consent of the locals.

The Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel was constituted by the ministry of environment & forests in February 2010 under the chairmanship of noted environmental expert Professor Madhav Gadgil. The panel has identified several eco-sensitive zones in the region and recommended that they should be declared no-go areas. Among its recommendations, the panel has also called for scrapping of Karnataka's Gundia and Kerala's Athirapally hydro-projects, and gradual phasing out of mining activities in ecologically highly-sensitive areas of Goa by 2016. It has also suggested setting up of a Western Ghats Ecology Authority (WGEA), as a statutory authority appointed by the ministry of environment and forests, with the powers under Section 3 of the Environment (Protection) Act, 1986. The 24-member body is to have ecologists, scientists, representatives of civil society, as well as tribal groups, officials from the Union environment ministry, Planning Commission, National Biodiversity Authority, Central Pollution Control Board, and representatives of the state government as its members.
 
Both the Karnataka and Kerala governments have been opposed to the recommendation to scrap the hydro-projects in their respective regions. The Karnataka government had also been opposing the World Heritage tag citing regulatory hurdles in the development of places falling under these regions. Goa's lackadaisical attitude in conserving the Western Ghats has resulted in the state not getting any site in the list of 39. Maharashtra government has welcomed the World Heritage Status to Western Ghats, but that is unlikely to change the state's present stance of not imposing a complete ban on mining and industries, except in the core areas. The state, nevertheless is encouraging green fuel movement in the villages of Western Ghats by way of up to 75% subsidy on biogas and 50% subsidy on shift to low yielding cattle, which rely on domestic fodder instead of open grazing.
 
Impact of UNESCO World Heritage Site
The World Heritage status could have implications on development in and around these sites as UNESCO prescribes creation of additional buffer zones around the natural world heritage sites and putting in place an overarching management authority for conservation of the selected 39 serial sites. Conservationists also fear a mad-rush to these sensitive areas in the guise of eco-tourism. "This might trigger commercial activities in the Western Ghats, followed by construction activities like building roads, structures, power lines and other infrastructure, which will defeat the purpose of protecting the green cover and habitat protection," says an activist associated with the Kudremukh Wildlife Foundation in Karnataka.

The Western Ghats expert Prof Madhav Gadgil has welcomed the UNESCO gesture saying, "It will hopefully strengthen the Acts like Biological Diversity Act of 2002, which empowers the local bodies like panchayats to take appropriate steps for conservation." The participation of locals is going to be crucial in determining the success of conservation efforts and promising sustainable development.

All along the Western Ghats in five states, there are lakhs of tribal people who have made their homes in the Ghats. The Thodas of Nilgiris, Soligas of BR Hills, Malekudiyas of Belthangady, Halakki Vokkals of Uttara Kannada, the Sidhis of Kumta, Paniyas of Waynad, Kattunayakans of Malabar and many others in Goa and Maharashtra are some of them. The Perspective Plan for Protection of Biodiversity 2001-16 states that "tribal communities are part of the biodiversity and the state governments should not take them out of their natural surroundings, but empower them democratically and let the government facilities go to them."
 
The ground situation for people's participation in development is conducive in most parts of the Western Ghats. The region has some of the highest levels of literacy in the country, and a high level of environmental awareness. The democratic institutions are well entrenched, and Kerala leads the country in capacity building and empowering of Panchayat Raj institutions. Goa has recently concluded a very interesting exercise, Regional Plan 2021, of taking inputs from Gram Sabhas in deciding on the land use policies. Evidently, Western Ghats are an appropriate region of the country to attempt to make the transition towards an inclusive, caring and environment friendly mode of development.
 

(Manish Desai is director-media, Press Information Bureau, Mumbai)

 


 

User

Information Commissions biggest threat to RTI says Gandhi

According to Shailesh Gandhi, who is retiring tomorrow, rising pendency of cases with Information Commissions would leave the citizens disenchanted with the transparency law

 

New Delhi: As he prepares to demit office tomorrow after a nearly four-year stint at the Central Information Commission, Information Commissioner Shailesh Gandhi feels that biggest threat to the Right to Information (RTI) regime in the country is from Information Commissions themselves, reports PTI.

Gandhi also says rising pendency of cases with Information Commissions would leave the citizens disenchanted with the transparency law.

The 65-year old Information Commissioner, who paid interns from his own pocket for ensuring quick and efficient processing of case files, said in an interview to PTI that RTI faces three major threats - lowest from the government, then judicial processes and highest threat is from Information Commissions themselves.

"The highest threat is from the Commissions where already there are cases that are pending for two and three years for a law that is seven years old. If it continues like this, in the next five years the pendency is likely to be three to five years at which point the common man will run away from this just as he has run away from most of judicial and quasi judicial processes. And if that happens, RTI is dead. RTI will continue to remain just for commissions and commissioners which would be very sad," Gandhi said.

An entrepreneur-turned-activist and IIT alumnus Gandhi, would be demitting his office tomorrow after nearly four year stint with the Central Information Commission during which he decided 16,000 petitions, maximum among all Information Commissioners.

During his tenure, Gandhi pushed for some progressive ideas in the CIC like Citizens' charter, digitisation of records, paperless offices, rationalisation of administrative man-power to ensure pendency of cases is reduced but did not get much support from within the Commission.

Gandhi had underlined the problem of increasing pendency of appeals and complaints at the Commission and had suggested that panel should make a commitment to dispose 90% of cases within three-five months.

He has also warned if pendency kept increasing like this, the waiting period would increase to five years.

Gandhi said he has been writing within the Commission on the pendency of issues but did not get "adequate response".

"Negligible ideas have been accepted. I don't think people are willing to accept this issue at all. There has been unwillingness to face up this," he said.

Gandhi said he hoped that the Commission would make a commitment that the pendency would be between three to four months, if not now, in the next three years, five years.

"I have proposed this in the Citizen's Charter which initially had found favour but ultimately the Commission refused to accept the Citizen's charter. It has not been willing to make commitments to citizens," Gandhi said.

He said everybody recognises pendency issue but the general attitude is someone else's problem and government would do something.

The maverick Commissioner who did not hesitate to issue show cause notice to the CIC officials with regards to an RTI plea said, "We need to bring accountability to all these Commissions, if we have to have a better government, a better nation. Nation is spending lots on these."

"Most of these Commissions, again if I broaden it to slightly beyond Commissions, I would say Judicial and quasi judicial processes in India are operating as if time is of no consequence. We blame political class and bureaucrats but if we do not correct this we cannot get any justice.

"Nobody who does anything wrong needs to fear anything and he can live life without any worry or fear," Gandhi said.

When asked about future plans, Gandhi said he would start working as RTI activist from Mumbai after a two month vacation with family.

When asked about the best and worst public authorities he dealt with during his tenure as Information Commissioner, Gandhi said Municipal Corporation of Delhi and CIC remained most difficult to deal with, while External Affairs Ministry, Delhi University and Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital were more receptive to his decisions.

Gandhi, who was about to start an inquiry against a Commission's officer but has been slapped with a litigation from him in personal capacity, said the implication of this case would be that Commission could be brought to standstill by any public information officer (PIO) or applicant making charges against a Commissioner personally.

"I am just wondering whether the rule of law can really do well if we do not respect various statutory authorities. If any kind of charges can be made against anyone, can we get a better government, can we get a better Nation? It's a worry that I am having," he said.

Gandhi also expressed concerns over the good orders issued by the transparency panels, which are getting stayed by the courts.

"Lot of progressive orders are getting stayed by the courts and the way our judicial system operates, you can easily spend eight to 10 years in courts," he said.

Gandhi said most government officers and those in power are not serious about RTI.

"They have a very non-serious attitude...Unfortunately, my finding is even the Commissions, I don't think are very serious about RTI. This is sad. But I think citizens are very serious and they need to act and put pressure on all these bodies," he said.

User

New study exposes NGO’s climate smart agriculture as fraudulent!

Present ‘climate science’ has no clue of ‘monsoon behaviour’ because uncertainties are so huge that makes its prediction highly challenging. If this being the case how agricultural solutions from NGOs would be climate smart?

 

"Understanding how the South Asian monsoon will change in response to global warming and resolving the uncertainties in projected changes are ‘demanding tasks’ for climate science.”
 
The extract is from a study published in the 24th June issue of “Nature Climate Change” - a sister journal of the world's  most cited scientific publication - Nature. The study had been authored by Andrew Turner, National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, University of Reading and co-authored by Hari Subramaniam Annamalai, International Pacific Research Centre, School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Hawaii.
 
If we were to go by Oxfam’s policy document - Growing Better Future or ActionAid’s - ‘On the Brink or the ICRIER-Gene Campaign Policy Paper 16: 'Impact of Climate Agriculture & Food Security', all based on the so called Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) paradigm, we can’t be faulted to be left with an impression that CSA is a magic wand wherein all solutions are known and further these NGOs have actually the in situ capability to translate these into action!
 
But wait a minute. What did this new “Nature Climate Change” study actually find? Let’s read their opening sentence once again:
“Understanding how the South Asian monsoon will change in response to global warming and resolving the uncertainties in projected changes are ‘demanding tasks’ for climate science.”

Translated:  Present ‘climate science’ has no clue of ‘monsoon behaviour’ because uncertainties are so huge that makes its prediction highly challenging!

If this being the case, how climate smart can these NGO agricultural solutions be?

So on what basis has the Nature Climate Change study made such a conclusion? This is what is given as an explanation:
“Current state-of-the-art general circulation models have difficulty simulating the regional distribution of monsoon rainfall...”

“But, variations within each season, over timescales of a few days or weeks, often have large impacts on agriculture or water supply...”

"Perhaps the single biggest scientific challenge is in understanding monsoon variability at intra-seasonal timescales (several weeks), the so-called active and break events in the monsoon, and how they will change in the future"...”

A few days ago, India Today interviewed my Facebook pal, GV Ramanjaneyulu, Executive Director of Hyderabad-based Centre for Sustainable Agriculture (CSA) on the issue of the monsoon playing truant. And this is what Ramanjaneyulu expressed as the problem during this interview:
 
"There are areas which are hit by drought every year, but still there is no contingency plan...The plan should be, say, if rain is delayed for 15 days, what is the plan B? If it is delayed for 30 days, what is plan C?"

I wrote back cheekily perhaps he should target his ire at NGOs like Oxfam, ActionAid or Gene Campaign, as only they could audaciously claim they were climate smarties and not government agencies like the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). I added that in the past farmers used to give specific names to weekly rainfall according to which they took decisions what crop and variety to plant. Thus in the past these decisions were made on the basis of soil fertility; irrigation potential and monsoon behaviour. Now the same decisions are driven by market or profit maximization impulses which makes monsoon forecasting, as difficult as it is, a prerequisite for climate smart agriculture.

But NGOs instead of developing monsoon forecasting skills choose to belittle the IMD’s chequered forecasting track record. Take for example Devinder Sharma who pompously projects himself as an international food security analyst in an article a couple of days in the Deccan Herald wrote:
“In 2009 when India was faced with one of its worst droughts, the monsoon forecast was for an 'almost normal' rainfall season.”

You must have heard of the meteorological department’s monsoon forecast. It promises to be a near normal monsoon season from June-September with rains expected to be 98% of the long period average with a 5% variation.

Sounds good.

But if you are a farmer, keep your fingers crossed. Instead of depending on the first monsoon forecast that was given out in April, I suggest you keep on praying before rain gods to be kind to you. Pray with folded hands that the rains do not deceive you once again as it did two years back in 2009. You haven’t yet recovered from the economic distress that the 2009 drought had inflicted, and if the monsoon fails again you will be in dire straits.

 

By the same logic we can ask votaries of CSA such as Devinder Sharma, how they can claim that their agriculture practices are climate smart even when they are unable to forecast monsoon behaviour. This trait cuts across all foreign funded NGOs. All pretend climate smartness even when they have no clue on how the monsoon will behave. If the IMD’s wrong monsoon forecasts can hurt farmers bad, even more so agricultural practices that are not aligned with monsoon behaviour, even if they are foolishly assumed as being so.

The “Nature Climate Change” study goes further to observe:
“Current state-of-the-art general circulation models have difficulty simulating the regional distribution of monsoon rainfall”.
 
But it is the same GCM models that predict that global temperatures will increase 4-8 deg C by 2100, the primary problem that CSA bases itself to address.  If the GCM model is unreliable for seasonal forecasts, how then is it considered reliable for a 100 year forecast?

The “Nature Climate Change” study concludes:
“Models linking monsoon responses to global warming suggest a rise in monsoon rainfall, but there is a high degree of uncertainty in these projections. Observations from data sets from most areas indicate a declining trend or no change in monsoons, contrary to the projected rise.”
Climate is average weather for a period now taken as 30 years. Now if a model cannot predict this season’s monsoon, how climate smart can be the solutions based on such models? Rather than finding appropriate solutions to a changing climate, all these NGOs have to offer are standardized solutions which are assumed as being appropriate for whatever directions the climate shifts! And they call this illogical outlook - “Sustainable Development”!

So next time you hear a foreign funded NGO staff waxing eloquent of CSA, you should now be able to recognize them for what they really are - either imbecile idiots parroting lines that they have no clue about or just sleek PR artists aiming to con you!

To read more details of the “Nature Climate Change” study, click here

Courtesy: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/

User

COMMENTS

Rajan Alexander

5 years ago

Hi Andy!

Thank you very much for taking the time to make a detailed rejoinder. But let me react.


1. "The scientific evidence (from basic theory and from a large number of climate modelling experiments) clearly suggests that as a whole monsoon rainfall will increase somewhat in the future and due to the expected increase in atmospheric moisture there is some evidence that rain will fall in heavier bursts. Such changes point to increased risk of flooding."

The AGW theory states that global warming induces an increase in global precipitation through the augmentation of water evaporation. Warmer seas should heat up the monsoon winds that carry moisture from the ocean to the land. In turn, warmer winds should carry more moisture, so warmer oceans should lead to more rain. This should in turn imply that global relative humidity and evaporation levels should increase. Unfortunately relative humidity and evaporation rates remain lower than normal. This is amazing as they offer themselves as perfect proxy for global temperatures.

In 2005, NASA boss James Hansen stated in an article in the journal ‘Science’ that confirmation of the planetary energy imbalance can be obtained by measuring the heat content of the oceans which are the principal reservoir for excess energy.

A problem for the AGW hypothesis now is that the oceans have been cooling as measurements from thousands of Argo sensors floating on the sea indicate. So the lame explanation that:

“Overall, the missing heat doesn't change expectations for future climate change, because the heat won't stay missing forever. Eventually it will resurface and impact the climate system, and the recent and deceptive reprieve from rapid warming we've enjoyed will come to an expected end.”

Indeed there is no known mechanism to account for what some describe as vast amounts of missing heat, suggesting that contrary to the AGW hypothesis, heat is not accumulating in the climate system and there is no longer any radiative imbalance from all the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)'s statistical model skill level is 22% and their new dynamic model (modified CPC-NCEP-US) is 26%. This means their odds of success is one out of 4 or 5. This is after nearly 200 years of existence. Now if the "climate smart" community has anything to offer to fill this vacuum, then this is the time they should demonstrate. No one dares to even to attempt to provide an alternate forecast. The proof in the pudding as they say is eating it.

Like to add Andy, a couple of years ago, Indian Inst of Science Bangalore, India's premier science institution, fed all monsoon data for 20th century and tried to hindcast using the IPCC GCM models. They were no where near the mark. A detailed discuss on models can be found in the link I previously provided


For all your other comments please visit my previous post: Critique: ICRIER-GC Policy Paper on Climate, Agriculture & Food Security: Climate, Agriculture & Food Security
http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2...

Andy Turner

5 years ago

The article “New study exposes NGO’s climate smart agriculture as fraudulent!” paints an extremely distorted picture of our Nature Climate Change review article (Climate Change and the South Asian Monsoon, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1495), blatantly misrepresents the science and implies a viewpoint that we have not presented and do not support.

The article states that “climate science has no clue of monsoon behaviour”- this is patently untrue. The scientific evidence (from basic theory and from a large number of climate modelling experiments) clearly suggests that as a whole monsoon rainfall will increase somewhat in the future and due to the expected increase in atmospheric moisture there is some evidence that rain will fall in heavier bursts. Such changes point to increased risk of flooding.

However, there is a considerable range in the magnitude of the projected increase in rainfall and climate models do not agree on the local detail of how rainfall might change within South Asia. It is often such local detail that is most relevant when planning how to adapt to climate change, e.g., in the agriculture and infrastructure sectors. These disagreements between climate models are due to inaccuracies in the way current models represent some of the small scale physical processes, in part related to a lack of quality observations to constrain the models. As we argue in the Nature Climate Change paper, more reliable predictions of the future will be made when models can better simulate the local features of the monsoon and its variability on a range of timescales – from days to weeks and more. Such improvements are the focus of current monsoon research.

Your article also perpetuates the old fallacy that one cannot predict the future climate many years ahead while there are still difficulties at making weather forecasts in the next days and weeks. The science of climate change is about “expected changes in the probability of occurrences of certain weather events” such as monsoon droughts and floods; as models improve in conjunction with our better understanding of the physical system, we are in the right direction to reduce the uncertainties in future projections – this is doable as climate community has demonstrated the tremendous accomplishment in the few decades in understanding and predicting, for example, El Niño events.

On the issue of Climate Smart Agriculture, of which we do not comment in our review, a cornerstone seems to be to enhance resilience and improve adaptation strategies. In our opinion, what better way to do this than improve the way that farmers adapt to variability in the current climate? The sort of floods or breaks in the monsoon that occur in recent and indeed all monsoon seasons have much larger impacts than the projected signals of future mean climate. The key to dealing with the changing climate will be to make sure that the adaptation strategies are themselves adaptable. In other words being able to adapt to current variations allows farmers and others to be able to make decisions even in the face of uncertainty in the climate models.

Dr Andy Turner, Dr. H. Annamalai and Kathy Maskell

Phil

5 years ago

The point of most "climate smart agriculture"is to help farmers SURVIVE the weather that is becoming too difficult to predict.

As the author mentions, monsoon season, once upon a time, was fairly stable. As that becomes less so, NGOs are trying to assist farmers in making the transition from a predictable climate to one that is markedly less so.

Basically, climate smart agriculture works to minimize the adverse impacts of wild weather on farmers. Not sure how that could be fraudulent.


REPLY

Rajan Alexander

In Reply to Phil 5 years ago


@ Phil: "As the author mentions, monsoon season, once upon a time, was fairly stable. As that becomes less so, NGOs are trying to assist farmers in making the transition from a predictable climate to one that is markedly less so."

No where in my article I said. The official data consisting of 200 year record of GoI says that there is any significant change in the monsoon mean values.

It has to be appreciated that the phenomenon of monsoons are not fully understood, leave alone predicted successfully. The monsoons, by character, exhibit a wide range of natural variability on the spatial, temporal, intra-seasonal, inter-annual and decadal scale that characterise its pattern of distribution, frequency and intensity of rainfall. The monsoon has always had its natural vagaries and it is going to show them in future too.

That does not mean that human's are responsible for such changes


Rajan Alexander

In Reply to Rajan Alexander 5 years ago

Correction: No where in my article I said. The official data consisting of 200 year record of GoI says that there is any significant change in the monsoon mean values."

It should read as follows:

No where in my article I said THAT. The official data consisting of 200 year record of GoI says that there is NO significant change in the monsoon mean values."

Devinder Sharma

5 years ago

I am disappointed by the snide remarks made against me, Suman Sahay or Dr Ramoo of CSA. I have never called myself International food Security expert. Nor is it fair to deride the significant contribution made by Suman Sahay of Gene Campaign and Dr Ramoo of CSA.

I expect Sucheta Dalal to look into this.

REPLY

Rajan Alexander

In Reply to Devinder Sharma 5 years ago


Devinder. For the record, I have not made any disparaging remarks on Suman Sahai. I did mention Gene Campaign. To equate the two is something like the slogan India is Indira and Indira is India.

As for Ramoo, I have sought a clarification from him through email exchanges. He confirmed my article did not offend him.

Thanx for the clarification. You are not a food security analyst. I thought so

Gyan Mitra

In Reply to Devinder Sharma 5 years ago

DISAPPOINTED ? WHY ? It just means you are a SIGNIFICANT player in the discussion :) Some of your thoughts are refreshing which you are unafraid to convey. You challenge the grain and this is necessary for ultimately, the farmer needs simple solutions & not Nobel winning theories.

mtobis

5 years ago

Just as a casino cannot predict the next spin of a roulette wheel, but can predict it will win in the long run, it is possible to predict a long term climate trend without knowing what individual seasons will bring.

In both situations, the trend is determined even though the individual component events are not.

This is well-known and widely discussed, not only in the professional climate literature but also in broadly accessible outreach reports.

You have some other points that may or may not be worthy of consideration, but your multiple repetitions of this plainly incorrect argument do not help the credibility of your position.

REPLY

Rajan Alexander

In Reply to mtobis 5 years ago

"Just as a casino cannot predict the next spin of a roulette wheel, but can predict it will win in the long run, it is possible to predict a long term climate trend without knowing what individual seasons will bring.

In both situations, the trend is determined even though the individual component events are not."

But we never know whether theory is validated as how many of us will be around till 2100 to verify?

Now your logic is fallacious at least for the common farmer. They need to adapt for current climatic changes and not for a long term climate trend though individual seasons which may or may not reflect the long term trend. That's being entirely puerile.

But what we know is that more than 20 years have passed since IPCC AR1 Report 1990 and this is sufficient time to verify. They missed their mark by a mile

The latest SREX IPCC Report AR5 t acknowledged that the prospect of any global warming, leave alone accelerated warming, does not seem even probable during the next 2-3 decades!:

...climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability".

If global warming for the next 2-3 decades are expected to be on vacation, why adapt for it now. If it re-surfaces during our life time, let's think of it then.

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