Stocks
Weekly Nifty View: Channel broken, but is this a correction or bears in action?

A close above 5,685 on the Nifty may bring some reversal

S&P Nifty close: 5,574.05


Market Trend
 

Short Term: Down                             Medium Term: Down                        Long Term: Down

 

After a flat opening, the Nifty made a feeble attempt to take out and close above the weekly pivot of 5,714 points, which failed miserably. After a couple of days of narrow-range movement the market declined with gusto in the last couple of days of the week. The breaking of the support of the weekly channel saw the bulls surrender meekly resulting in the Nifty just collapsing in the last 45 minutes of trade on Friday. The volumes on these days was significantly higher but the week-on-week volumes were significantly lower as the Nifty closed 112 points (-1.97%) in the red. The histogram MACD also fell below the median level indicating that the honeymoon for the bulls is over and desperate measures are required on their part to salvage the situation.
 

The sectoral Indices which outperformed were CNX Media (+3.56%), CNX Consumption (+0.55%), CNX Infra (-0.13%) and CNX PSE (-0.56%) while the underperformers were CNX Auto (-2.70%), CNX Metal (-2.45%), CNX Commodities (-2.37%) and CNX PSU Bank (-2.35%).

 

Some key levels to watch out for this week

  As long as the S&P Nifty stays below 5,617 points (pivot) the bulls will be under pressure.

  Support levels in declines are pegged at 5,516 and 5,458 points.

•  Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 5,675 and 5,776 points.

 

Some Observations

  1. The Nifty has completed the 61.8% retracement level of the decline from 6,338-4,770 points pegged at 5,740.
  2. The 78.6% retracement level of the fall from 6,338-4,770 points is pegged at 5,951 points, which also coincides with the top of the channel (in brown).
  3. We have fallen below the previous weekly top of 5,629 points (24 February 2012) which indicates that any rally from here on will lack impulsive qualities.
  4. The “gap area” between 5,649-5,682 points has been closed hence the trouble for the bulls will increase.
  5. The weekly channel support (in blue) has been broken. The immediate priority for the bulls is to regain it (has to close above 5,685 this week for it) otherwise the going will get tougher.
  6. Immediate support to watch out for is 5,516 which is the 38.2% retracement level of the rise from 5,032-5,815 points. This level is close to the support calculated by another method i.e. correction from 5,348-5,032 points is 316 points. Therefore 5,815 – 316 points gives 5,499 points.
  7. Another important level to watch out for is the recent top of 5,448 points (24 August 2012) which should not be overlapped at any cost as this would confirm that all bullish hopes are dashed and that any subsequent rise would only be a selling opportunity.

Strategy
 

The bulls came a cropper as the Nifty broke through and closed below the weekly channel support. This raises the question whether we have already topped out and an intermediate term decline has begun. To ward off such conclusions the bulls have to ensure that this correction does not drop below 5,448 points and more preferably try to regain the channel at the earliest. From this perspective the coming two to three weeks are important for getting a confirmation whether the bulls are down and out or they make one more last attempt to drive prices higher into the year end. However, from a practical short-term trading perspective one should keep selling into rallies near the 5,675-5,700 point’s area as the daily and weekly uptrend has become weak. From the above one can safely conclude that the bulls are down but not completely out as yet and one has to see what they can do to salvage the situation which would become precarious as the weeks go by.
 

(Vidur Pendharkar works as a consultant technical analyst and chief strategist at www.trend4casting.com.)

 

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Challenge Extraordinary: An anchor for the mentally challenged

Dr Nita Mukherjee visits a different kind of workshop

 
The joie-de-vivre you experience as you enter 204 Nirman Kendra is unbelievable. Happy music fills the air and warm greetings from members welcome you. This is The Anchorage at Mahalakshmi (Mumbai)—a sheltered workshop for the mentally challenged (not to be confused with the Anchorage at Colaba, a home for orphaned children).
 
It was set up by a group of five concerned parents and a special educator Preeti Sanghvi in 1989. The children of all the founders had trained in a special school for children that they had to leave when they turned 18. Concerned about what would happen next and a fear that their children may suffer regression drove the parents to look for options. Also, since the children had learnt some crafts and acquired the ability to execute repetitive work, these had to be put to use as adults; they had also to feel that they were ‘earning members’ of the family and not a burden, if they had to be integrated into society.
 
The Anchorage was registered as a ‘parents’ cooperative’ under the Charitable Trust and Societies Act. The main objective of Anchorage is to continue to provide vocational training and arrange for appropriate job work for mentally challenged adults. Over the 23 years of its operations, the workshop has grown into a holistic life space.
 
With time, the space too has expanded and added a second unit. Beginning in a garage, Anchorage moved to a member’s 200-sq ft room in a house. In 2001, with a large donation from the Japanese government, contributions from parents and other donors, they acquired office premises. “This was an important move. Today, these people can say—‘I am going to office’. It does a lot for their self-image,” explains Archana Khaitan, a volunteer. 
 
Nirupa Bhangar, the current director, joined Anchorage about seven years ago after a long career focused on education. She says that apart from job work contracts that Anchorage currently provides to some 30 adults—ranging from age 19 to 54 and disabilities ranging from Downs’ Syndrome to spastic and autistic—what’s distinctive is the integration of an ongoing training and stimulation programme. “In a lifelong facility like ours, it provides an opportunity for building functional skills and dealing with issues of daily living, grooming and hygiene,” she says. The job work is obtained from factories, hotels and other industrial establishments due to the trustees’ long association with the corporate sector.
 
All mentally-challenged adults over 18 years are eligible for admission. The only pre-condition is that he/she is toilet-trained and that one parent or sibling is willing to volunteer for at least half-day a week. There is a varied structure of fees which meets about a third of the expenditure; two-thirds is funded by donations and interest on the corpus. Money earned through job work and sale of products at exhibitions is distributed equally among members. Clearly laid out details of their policies are available on their website.
 
The workshop also has several recreational and fun activities. According to Archana, these add to camaraderie and zest for life at the workshop, nurture talent and are therapeutic. These include dance, art and craft and yoga. Indoor games, birthday parties, movies, picnics and outings at restaurants—all that normal adults do—are other fun events.
 
A part of the team’s effort is to increase the corpus through garnering donations—Anchorage has 80G certification under the Income Tax Act. Nirupa would also like more volunteers, especially those equipped to teach life-skills. There are three categories of volunteers: those who help with job work supervision and quality control; those conducting training & recreation activities; and students for project work. But most of all, Nirupa says she would like all of us to go beyond categorising her wards and others like them as ‘mentally retarded’ or even ‘differently-abled’. “We need to respect them as individual human beings, with differing sensibilities. Removing the deep-rooted prejudices is our challenge and I would like the support of all people in achieving this,” she says.
 
The Anchorage
204/205 Nirman Kendra,
Dr E Moses Road, Mahalakshmi,
Mumbai 400 011
Tel +91 22 2493 6346, +91 77388 60420

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