Weekly Market View: Trapped in a range

The market is about to correct the strong rally we have witnessed but not by much. The upside would be capped at a Sensex of 18,300

The domestic market started the week with a huge gain. The positive sentiment in the market continued throughout the week, taking cues from the positive global market. The Sensex and the Nifty both ended the week 3% gains.

The top Sensex gainers this week included DLF up 8%, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Reliance Communications (RCom) and Sterlite Industries up 7% each and Wipro up 6%. Bharti Airtel ended up as the lone loser, down 4%, while Maruti Suzuki, ACC, Cipla and Tata Steel ended flat.

In the sectoral space, the IT index gained 5% and capital goods was up 4% while the healthcare index ended flat in the reporting week.

It is expected that India will be able to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) by March 2011 on revenue earnings from third-generation (3G) spectrum. The sale of 3G mobile phone licences and broadband access will bring in $23 billion, which will help the government reduce its Rs4.57 trillion borrowing for the fiscal year. India had projected a budget deficit of 5.5% for the fiscal year that ends in March 2011, down from a 16-year high of 6.9% of GDP in the last fiscal year.

The wholesale price index (WPI) rose an annual 10.16% in May, driven by higher food and fuel prices, government data showed on Monday. This has increased the possibility of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates at its meeting in July.

The government has approved stake sale in Coal India Ltd (CIL) and Hindustan Copper Ltd (HCL) that could be worth up to $3.7 billion. In CIL, 10% stake will be sold and 20% stake in HCL will be offloaded. The stake sales are part of a broader divestment plan by the Indian government to offload minority holdings in 60 state firms in the coming years.

The RBI said that rates are not indicative of the high growth in the economy and should be curbed by controlling interest rates. Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said that weekly movements in India's inflation will not have any impact on reforms to free fuel prices.

The government (after market hours) on Tuesday, 15th June, proposed the imposition of capital gains tax on all stock market transactions by Indians and overseas funds as part of the proposed changes in tax laws. As per the second draft of the Direct Tax Code (DTC), the securities transaction tax (STT) will stay and rates will be calibrated. In the first draft of the DTC unveiled last year, the government had proposed to scrap the STT. The DTC has proposed taxing gains from investments in the stock market and also equity-linked mutual fund units at the applicable rate of taxation. The DTC has also proposed some taxes on income of foreign funds, treating all incomes from their investments in the stock market in India as capital gains.

India's annual monsoon rains in the week to 16th June were 8% below normal, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Rainfall was 32.5mm during the week against a normal 35.2mm, the Met office said.

C Rangarajan, chairman of the prime minister's Economic Advisory Council said that inflation has gone beyond the comfortable level and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should control it. Double-digit inflation cannot be only because of increased food prices, as the manufacturing sector is also contributing to the inflation.

Exports in May were up 35% over the year ago period, trade secretary Rahul Khullar said. Imports have been up 30% over the year ago period. 

RBI governor D Subbarao said that the inflation is getting more generalised with the demand side pressure building up in the economy. The RBI will take a calibrated exit from the loose monetary policy.

In the US, a release by Department of Labor on Thursday showed number of Americans filing first- time claims for unemployment benefits rose 12,000 to 472,000 in the week ending 12 June 2010. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index was down to 8 in June 2010 from 21.4 in the prior month.

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RBI favours deregulation of interest rate on savings accounts

"Deregulation of interest rates, including savings rates, is an important way forward for reforms. The base rate system that will come into affect from 1st July is also an important reform," RBI governor D Subbarao said

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor D Subbarao today said the central bank is in favour of deregulating interest rates on savings accounts as part of financial sector reforms, reports PTI.

"Deregulation of interest rates, including savings rates, is an important way forward for reforms. The base rate system that will come into affect from 1st July is also an important reform," he said in Hyderabad.

The concerns expressed by banks on the issue should be debated, he said.

Currently, the savings rate is fixed at 3.5% and is being calculated on daily basis from 1st April.

On Thursday, RBI deputy governor K C Chakrabarty had said, "We are in favour of deregulating all interest rates including savings rate."

"We have initiated a debate in the last policy... The deduction is very clear, clear in favour of deregulating all interest rates, including savings banks. But the decision will be taken, when to do that, after having adequate debate on the issue," Mr Chakrabarty had said.

However, bankers felt that any such move would lead to wide variation in the market.

Mr Chakrabarty had said, "This is a highly competitive market. Prices do not vary much. But what will be the rate, what customers will get, will depend on market conditions."

On inflation, Mr Subbarao said the RBI will review the inflation targets at its next policy meeting on 27th July.

"Earlier, we expected the inflation rate to come down to 5.5% by March, 2011. We projected this number in our earlier meeting. We will revisit that number in the July policy meeting," Subbarao told reporters.

Food price inflation for week ended 5th June was at 16.12% compared to 16.74% in the previous week.

Inflation has been hovering at double digits for the past several weeks.

However, he said despite this fact, the growth numbers are quite encouraging and investment is picking up.

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Concurrent fools investors with false announcement on Sikkim power project

Concurrent India Infrastructure kept silent for more than a month after announcing a power deal with Sikkim Power, and issued a clarification only after the latter refuted any deal with it. The BSE is silent—which encourages such malpractices

Moneylife has reported on how the media is being used to spread positive news about a company to stop its share price from falling further. We have come across one such company, which itself is propagating false announcements of its project wins. The saving grace was that investors ignored this 'positive' news.

On 10th May, Mumbai-based Concurrent (India) Infrastructure Ltd, in a regulatory filing said, "Concurrent to Develop Hydro project in Sikkim through PPP Mode". According to the release, Concurrent was all set to enter into an agreement with Sikkim Power Development Corp Ltd (SPDC) through PPP model to develop a 40MW hydro-project, estimated to cost Rs111.2 crore, at Labdang in Sikkim.

The company said that it had already spent Rs30 crore on developing preparations of Detailed Project Report (DPR); procurement of land and statutory clearance; access road and bridge at the site; a 30-metre tunnel and other civil works.

The release also quoted Concurrent's director and chief executive officer K Sudhir Babu as saying, "With this (deal), Concurrent will have a foothold in Sikkim. As per estimates, in Sikkim, (the) hydro-potential is 9,000MW, out of which only 4,000MW has been allotted."

Since the announcement was made after trading hours, next day, on 11th May, the Concurrent share opened Rs0.65 higher at Rs33.00 from its previous closing price on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). However, at close, the shares fell by Rs2.1 to Rs30.75. During 10th May and 16th June (the day when Concurrent clarified that it had not signed any deal in Sikkim), Concurrent shares moved in a band between Rs29.55 to Rs34.80.

On 14th June, SPDC clarified that it has not entered into any kind of understanding or agreement with Concurrent (India) Infrastructure Ltd for development of a 40MW hydropower project in the State. According to a press statement, SPDC manager Palchen D Chaktha refuted any such development with Concurrent. He also said that SPDC has neither entered into any kind of agreement with Concurrent nor is it considering allotment of any project to the company in the near future.

Following the denial from SPDC, on 16th June, Concurrent said that it has not entered into any agreement yet in this regard and is still under the process of negotiations through various channels for a possible proposition of an agreement, if the efforts for the same fructifies.

The company conveniently kept mum throughout the period between its first announcement and subsequent denial by SPDC. Passing on the blame to the media, Concurrent said, "(The) Company through its press release dated May 09, 2010, stated very clearly that the Company is all set to enter an agreement for the said purpose, however the same was interpreted by some websites as such that (the) Company has entered already into an agreement."

Interestingly, the heading for its earlier announcement was "Concurrent to Develop Hydro project in Sikkim through PPP Mode" and not "Concurrent may Develop Hydro project in Sikkim through PPP Mode", if at all it was still at the negotiation stage.

We asked BSE officials if they will initiate any action against the false filing by Concurrent. However, until writing the story, there was no response from the Exchange. By keeping mum, the stock exchanges, which are the first level in stock market regulation, encourages such practices. As Moneylife magazine reports in every issue, misinformation and price-rigging is rampant in the BSE which the authorities turn a blind eye to.

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COMMENTS

shahid khan

7 years ago

I WANT TO KNOW AT WHAT COST DID CONCURRENT INDIA TAKE MAJORITY STAKE IN KAZI AVIATION & TRAVEL SERVICES WAS INVESTORS INFORMED ABOUT THIS AND WHAT IS THE PROGRESS ON MOU WITH SAUDI PRINCE IS THAT ALSO ANNOUNCEMENT SCANDLE AS IN SAUDI AL WATANIA NEWS PAPER IT CAME THAT NO SUCH INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE BY GOVERNMENT OF SAUDI ARABIA IS MR SUDHIR BABU A NEW MR RAJU OF SATYAM MAKING ANNOUNCMENTS TO INCREASE SHARE VALUE WILL ANYONE CHECK HOW MUCH INVESTMENT HAS CONCURRENT MADE IN SAUDI ARABIA WITHOUT PERMISSIONS IS IT HAWALA TRANSATION OR LEGAL OR JUST CHEATING TO INVESTORS ALSO KRANTHI CONSTRUCTIONS DOES NOT HAVE KNOWLEDGE OF ASSURANCE LETTER AS ANNOUNCED BY MR SUDHIR BABU THE PRESS RELEASE ISSUED BY PANDURANG REDDY MOBILE NO 9948211377 TO BSE ABOUT ACTIVITIES OF MR SUDHIR BABU WHEN CONTACTED HE SAYS HE IS JUST THE PUBLIC RELATIONS AGENCY AND ALL CHEATING IS DONE BY MR SUDHIR BABU AND MR REDDY DOES NOT REALLY HAVE ANY KNOWLEDGE BUT ONLY WORKS TO INCREASE THE SHARE VALUE BY MAKING ANNOUNCEMNTS AND GETTING IT COVERED ON VARIOUS TV/PRESS AND OTHER MEDIA WILL ANY DOCUMENT PROVE ANY FUNDS TRANSFER TO SAUDI ARABIA OR ACTUAL BUSSINESS OF CONCURRENT AS MR SUDHIR BABU CLAIMS LOT OF BUSSINESS IN SRI LANKA AN ORDER OF 1300 CORER MAY BE DIRECT DEAL WITH MR RAJAPAKSE AS ALL TENDERS FOR MR SUDHIR BABU COMES WITHOUT ANY PROCESS ALLOVER THE WORLD MAY BE HE IS NEXT HARSHAD METHA OF SHARE BAZAR AND ONE DAY RELIANCE WILL ALSO BE PART OF CONCURRENT INDIA AS HE HAS ALREADY TAKEN CONTRACT OF VEDANTA AN ANIL AGARWAL COMPANY HOPE SEBI WILL INVESTIGATE AND BRING THE FACTS TO LIFE

VISHAL

7 years ago

WHY NOT SEBI LOOK INTO THE MATTER I MEAN RELATION I BETWEEN ARUN & MANAGEEMENT,HAVE SOME BODY SUBMIT COMPLAINT AT SEBI SITE SO THAT THEY CAN MAKE AN ENQUIRY.

blizzard

7 years ago

Read this carefully:

I am not on the side of moneylife or concurrent or arun.

Story of concurrent:
The whole moment of the price rise seems dubious in concurrent. from 8 to 36 in the matter of 4 months moving around 400% surely tells there is something fishy.


Here is the deal. Why did arun repeatedly asked investors who follow his blog to buy concurrent at every level. Reason?.

Because he himself says that he and his have associates have bought in huge quantities. Who are his associates?.

Let me take a guess. Operators?. the company might have given some good portion of shares to these operators for the effort they put in for buying at every level and bring in confidence among investors. Sweat Equity?.

There operators might have roped in arun for recommending the stock at every level so that normal investors start buying too and these operators can sell in small portions. for this he might be getting a portion of the profits.

A lot more to write...but i am not paid for it.


So the moral: Concurrent wants to benefit from the increased market cap and then with that money it may try to bring in some projects. This company is a scrap. the multi-crore company has a yahoo email and their phone numbers don't work. so don't try contacting them if you are an investor. say goodbye to this company and people like arun. invest in some fundamentally strong scripts.

Arun

7 years ago

Excellent Article .
Thank you for alerting small Investors about dubious annoucements.


I'm surprised some of the comments by Rajat ,Rajiv and Gang are like..
ulta chor kotwal ko dante.




sivanag

7 years ago

Thanks for enligtening small retail investors from these smart wording announcing made by these companies to make the share price higher.

kudos to you and your team by letting it out.

Rajiv

7 years ago

This article gives feeling that members of moneylife digital team is playing some dirty game. This article gives feeling that moneylife digital team is rigging he price of this company so that they can purchase it at lower price.

Look in this angle. As a journalist you have influence over larger audience and in parallel access some key information in advance. Using these two your team member is doing something fishy.

I hope before posting such an article a reality check from company and government of sikkim should have done. Mere quoting some very less known newpaper article is defafaming the quality of moneylife.

Same thing is happening with TV channels. Smaller news channel to increase their viewer will put everythin as sensational.

Remember during helicopter crash of Dr. YSR Reddy, former AP CM, INDIATV was putting breaking news "YSR is safe and reached a village, confirmed by some tribal. He is taking rest and sipping tea etc."

Question is these are the journalism then shame on it.

RAJIV

harkishan vanik

7 years ago

Sub:Concurrent fools investors with false announcement on Sikkim power project.
I am very much displeased and hurt by the irresposible attitude of the broadcasters of the above subjected press release which seems to have been done without any kind of varifications of the actual facts. It rather seems and shows how careless and irresposible the media is for bradcasting such news without taking pain to varify the facts from the company before reading into actual facts. Looks like the motives and intentions behind such a press release was done for the personal interest of the broadcaster itself by gaining some kind of bribe to do this.

Rajat Ghosh

7 years ago

Dear Deashish Ji and Sucheta Ji,

The title of the artilce looks a misfit, confusing and damaging the interests of shareholders.

The company in its original announcement said that it is all set to, it did not say they have signed any agreement. The SPDC officials when queried only said that there was no agreement in place.

The same when it appeared in press, company also very transperently gave a clarification already on this to BSE.

My observations are as follows:-

1) The title of the article is a confusion creator.

2) The first part of the article, where you said that, "The saving grace was that investors ignored this 'positive' news" is perfect.

3) When company gave this after market hours is also a vindication that company is not trying to play with sentiments.

4) In your own observation, the said news flow has no impact on the share price.

5) Further there is an anamoly in your article that is the following:-
The company said that it had already spent Rs30 crore on developing preparations of Detailed Project Report (DPR); procurement of land and statutory clearance; access road and bridge at the site; a 30-metre tunnel and other civil works.

For your information, if you go through the news flow company did not say anything of that sort. Please read the announcement once again.

Further the article says that, "By keeping mum, the stock exchanges, which are the first level in stock market regulation, encourages such practices. As Moneylife magazine reports in every issue, misinformation and price-rigging is rampant in the BSE which the authorities turn a blind eye to".

I dont know how far it is correct. Why BSE get linked with such announcements which are erroenously perceieved and presented.

As an avid reader of your magzine and also as a small shareholder of the company I feel that, this article clubbed generic aspects with company specific aspects and the Journo's did not contact the company officials before putting the same over here.

We hae high esteem and respect for both you couple Debashish and Sucheta, that is why we read this magzine. But the article on Concurrent by your team looks pre-matured and straight went on to the site, without considering the shareholders interest and without even contacting the company officials.

When you people at the helm of the affairs think of shareholders investors, as readers of magzine we think that you should nurture your team putting these articles to be more responsible otherwise such articles will create lot of unwarranted panick attacks and collateral damages.

Request you to kindly look into this more rationally.

Yours truly
Rajat Ghosh from Kolkata




Chandra Deo

7 years ago

Following is a exact reproduce from bse site in which Tulip Telecom sheds some light on the reality vs perceived .............

Tulip Telecom - Clarifies on News Item | 18/06/10 13:49
With reference to news item appearing in leading financial daily titled "Qualcomm to sell 26% stake to Tulip", Tulip Telecom Ltd has clarified to BSE that as on date there is no formal understanding with any business associate for any such transaction.

In normal course of business, the Company keeps exploring various options with potential partners.

If any such talks or efforts lead to a formal understating or contractual obligations, the Company would provide entire requite intimation to all the concerned authorities including the Stock Exchanges where the share of the Company are listed.

.......Hence a reality check is indeed essential before any strong voicing of opinion is presented in any media.

Chandra Deo

7 years ago

Dear Sucheta Ji,
I am a avid fan of Money Life and really like your section "Different strokes". Off late I am really nervous about something that was posted on the website of MoneyLife magazine by the Money Life Digital team. The article that read "Concurrent Fools Investors with False Announcement On Sikkim Power Project"-Posted on June 18, 07:13 Pm. I want to know whether a reality check had been made on the facts before the article was posted? Also as an stake holder in the same company, I had a telephonic talk with the CEO Mr Sudhir Babu who said that whatever the company said in the regulatory filing with the bse stands validated and correct. I have read the filing and found that it does NOT reveal who has spent the 30 Cr to develop and preparation of DPR , procurement of land , civil works etc. Then how can one conclude that Concurrent has spent this? May be the Sikkim Power Development Corporation has initiated the work on the said project incurring 30 Cr expenditure and now transferring the other slice of project to a company through PPP. Many infrastructure companies claim to have landed with some project or other and many a times the companies tell that the deal has fallen apart. Then why is such a big issue made out in the case of concurrent IF it is not so with hordes of other companies? I smell some sort of Price rigging by an operator to accumulate the stock at lower levels or to defame the company due to personal reasons. Or else, IF concurrent is at fault it should be pulled up for misguiding the bse and its investors.

But I want the TRUTH TO PREVAIL in all earnest.



Regards
(Chandra Deo .S)

Tushar Choksi

7 years ago

well if the stock exchanges are silent on such malpractices what SEBI is doing?

Suvendu Rath

7 years ago

Dear Sucheta Madam
Few days back I noticed on Sikkim govt website that concurrent wasnt listed as developer of hydro power project. Some people replied website is not updated.
This is one more....
The concurrent website shows 600 cr hospital work under execution under PMSSY scheme.
But if you check the tenders for such hospital last date of receipt was 15 June 2010 and review of tenders is 21 June 10. Before finalisation of tender how come this company working on project?
And this news been published on website for last five-six months.
Kind Regards

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