Weekly Market Report: Nifty, Sensex end week in downtrend
If the Nifty closes over 6,200 on Monday, it could lead to a rally. But, right now, the bears are in charge

On the Muhurat trading last Sunday, the indices made new highs. Markets were closed on Monday on account of Diwali celebrations.
But from Tuesday onwards, markets have been in bearish mode, even as various analysts talked of a ‘new bull market’ with much higher targets. The indices opened with a whimper, in the red, and trudged downwards through most of the trading sessions.
The gains of the previous week were wiped off during this week. The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 530.66 points (or 2.50%) to close the week at 20,666.15, while the Nifty closed at 6,140.75, down 166.45 points (or 2.64%).
On Tuesday, for the entire session, the indices traded below Sunday’s Muhurat close. Both the indices gave up all the gains of the past three trading session in just one day, signifying the weakness that would underlie the rest of the week. This was underscored by the PMI index reading which lingered below the 50 mark, for the fourth consecutive month.
The weakness that began on Tuesday continued through Wednesday as well. The rupee showed signs of weakness and slid, prompting newfound fears of wider current account deficit. Reserve Bank of India has said that it would tackle the rupee in a calibrated manner. The weakness was also marked by global factors, particularly with events that transpired in Europe, with a lower forecast for Euro-area growth next year and higher unemployment estimate.
The weakness continued for the third consecutive day. A Reuters poll revealed that the INR is unlikely to strengthen more. The rupee (INR) hit a 6-week low against the US dollar, making it the worst performer in Asia. However, the day was marked by S&P’s statements warning that India could be downgraded to junk status if the Indian government does not do anything to reverse growth.
Despite a somewhat strong rally towards the end of Friday’s trading session, the markets still remained weak, with a downwards bias, taking the number of consecutive down days to four. The day was marked with positive news of the United States economy growing quickly, at 2.8%, its fastest since March. Even a Reuters poll showed that India’s manufacturing is likely to have rebounded.
However, on Friday evening, news abound that US stocks rose after a stronger-than-expected October jobs report while China’s Industrial output rose 10.3% which exceeded expectations. 
If the Nifty closes over 6,200 on Monday, it could lead to a rally. But, right now, the bears are in charge.
Among the 1,267 shares that traded on the NSE this week, 713 rose, 512 fell and 42 remained unchanged. 
Among the other indices on the NSE, the top two indices were IT Sector (2%) and Smallcap (1%) while the top two losers were PSU Bank (7%) and Bank (6%).
Among the Nifty stocks the top five gainers were Tata Steel (6%); Ranbaxy Lab (5%); NTPC (4%); Infosys (3%) and Asian Paints (3%) while the top five losers were Bank of Baroda (10%); Punjab National Bank (9%); Axis Bank (8%); ICICI Bank (7%) and State Bank of India (7%). 
Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, top five and the bottom five sectors were:
Top ML sectors   Worst ML sectors  
Chemicals 3% Lifestyle & leisure -7%
Textiles 2% Telecom services -6%
Energy 2% Banks -5%
Industrial intermediates 1% Oil & gas -4%
Pharma 1% Consumer Products -3%



We cannot allow further deterioration of Indian aviation industry, says Dr Swamy

Dr Subramanian Swamy who launched the book— 'The Descent of Air India' authored by Jitender Bhargava, discusses the turmoil in the Indian aviation industry while Mr Bhargava talks about all that went wrong with the national carrier

At an exclusive event, Dr Subramanian Swamy, former minister of commerce and law launched the book—The Descent of Air India authored by Jitender Bhargava, a former executive director of Air India. Having spent more than two decades with Air India, Mr Bhargava knows the issues and problems of the airline and the aviation industry better than most. He, along with Dr Swamy, who in the past has raised questions over the valuation of Jet Airways by Etihad, examines the scenario of the Indian aviation industry and the way forward.
Dr Swamy, who spoke at Moneylife Foundation’s second anniversary event on the 2G scam and its implications, spoke on the "Turbulence in the Indian Aviation Industry". A few months back, Dr Swamy raised several questions on the ownership and effective control of Jet Airways, post its deal with Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airlines and on the security concerns related with the deal. In a letter sent to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the former minister of commerce and law had a request to adequately scrutinize the proposal between Jet and Etihad before granting the approval.
Bilateral agreements and the Jet-Etihad deal
The deal between Naresh Goyal-led Jet Airways and Etihad Airways, the national airline of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the signing of the bilateral between India and Abu Dhabi comprises chain of events taking place one after another. The flow of events makes one wonder whether these incidents were mere coincidence or part of collusion, said Mr Swamy.
Dr Swamy mentioned that the deal was against public interest as there has been squandering of air space. He claimed that the deal was cleared against the advice of the Parliament Select Committee and other advisory bodies. Dr Swamy also said that even the CAG has found that there has been reckless allocation of air space to foreign airlines.
Dr Swamy has consistently been ahead of his time with his views and unafraid to express them lashed out on the sanction of the Jet-Etihad deal. He said, "All scrutiny and investigation in the past have for one vested reason or another, been suppressed and never been acted upon putting Indian security gravely at risk. The allegations of serious underworld connections from the UAE continue to haunt Jet's ownership and need to be pre-examined by the Intelligence Bureau (IB), Department of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) and other Intelligence services."
Not much is known as to what either happened or is happening within the regulatory bodies responsible for clearing this particular deal. The deal was finalised only after receiving appropriate ministerial push. It all started on 14 September 2012 with the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approving the proposal from the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) to permit foreign airlines to invest up to 49% in scheduled and non-scheduled air transport services in India. In January 2013, officials from both Jet and Etihad met Ajit Singh, minister for civil aviation and Anand Sharma, minister for commerce and industries. After the meeting, Singh confirmed that both the carriers were negotiating a stake purchase deal.
The 48-hours between 22nd and 24 April 2013 were most crucial in finalising the Jet-Etihad deal. On 22nd April “under the direction of the Prime Minister” the Cabinet Committee approved the signing of the grant of 40,000 additional bilateral seat rights per week to Abu Dhabi. Ajit Singh convinced PM Manmohan Singh to urgently clear the bilateral deal between India and Abu Dhabi. Prime Minister Singh then directed finance minister P Chidambaram to hold a meeting with Ajit Singh, Anand Sharma, and Salman Khurshid, minister of external affairs.
Immediately after this meeting, Chidambaram along with the other three ministers and Shivshankar Menon, National Security Advisor and Pulok Chatterji, principal secretary, met the PM. This time, the PM raised some issues about the bilateral. However, Ajit Singh and other ministers assured the PM that all these concerns were considered while arriving at the enhancement. Immediately after signing the bilateral (thus granting 40,000 additional bilateral seat rights per week to Abu Dhabi), Etihad and Jet finalised their stake purchase deal. As per the proposal, Jet Airways would sell 24% stake to Etihad for about Rs2,058 crore.
The prime minister, an inter-ministerial group (IMG), a Parliamentary Committee, the capital market regulator and last but not the least, the competition watchdog have expressed reservations about both the deal as well as the substantial seat enhancement. PM Manmohan Singh expressed reservations about the seat enhancement to 40,000 per week and about Etihad controlling the bulk of seats on the India-Abu Dhabi route. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and the Competition Commission of India (CCI) have already sought clarity from the domestic carrier about the transaction.
It is therefore, obvious that the consideration to be received or already received by Jet Airways was clearly linked and co-related to the value of the bilateral that Abu Dhabi was receiving along with its investment in carrier. The sole beneficiary of the largesse of this bilateral deal was Naresh Goyal and not India as the government wants us to believe.
Pending clearance before CCI, the issue is the acquisition of 24% stake in Jet Airways by Etihad Airlines. KK Sharma, former director general of the CCI asks if CCI is totally helpless to clear the deal even if it is anti-competitive, if 210 days have passed from the date of filing of the details of the acquisition before the CCI; or does it have some other options before it? It is not clear as to why despite a clear 30 days from the date of filing of this merger review, no public notice was seen in newspapers. It is possible that this did not happen because of heavy to-and-fro traffic of communications between the CCI and the parties to combination. It is not sure as to what is going on inside the competition agency. However, in view of the position of the law and implementing regulations and the track record of the CCI so far, one can rest assured that the law and regulations are taking their correct course. However, there is a possibility, howsoever remote, that the deadline of 210 days may be projected to look like a great pressure point by the parties to the combination before the competition agency. If they succeed in convincing the CCI to clear the deal under pressure of 210 days without the deal being known to public, that would be a very dangerous precedent. Although such a possibility looks very unlikely even if it is for the sake of argument, such a possibility can happen.
Read more about the Jet-Ethihad deal:
AirAsia India
Two other deals that were highlighted by Dr Swamy were those of the Tata group. AirAsia India, a low-cost airline, in partnership with Malaysia's AirAsia Bhd and Delhi-based Telestra Tradeplace, was announced in February. Tata-SIA Airlines, is a full-service carrier for which the Tatas teamed up with Singapore Airlines in September. Dr Swamy, has challenged the deal in the Supreme Court. Dr Swamy said he has sought cancellation of Foreign Investment Promotional Board (FIPB) clearance to AirAsia.
Dr Swamy said that the deal is fraught with illegalities. He said that the commerce ministries put huge pressure on the civil aviation to allowing foreign direct investment (FDI) in new joint ventures and not only in existing airlines. Dr Swamy pointed out that the FDI rules permit foreign investment in existing airlines, but in the case of AirAsia India there is none. Neither Tatas nor Telestra Tradeplace own or run an existing airline in India. Tata Sons has a 30% stake in Air Asia India, with Arun Bhatia of Telestra Tradeplace owning 21%. Rest 49% is with AirAsia.
Air India’s descent 
On the decline of Air India, Dr Swamy highlighted a few reasons: harmful bilateral agreements, all profitable routes of the airlines were shutdown and made available to other airlines. He also mentioned that the airline bought aeroplanes that were probably overpriced and recently they sold these brand new planes as junk to Etihad, at one-third of the buying price.
Earlier in the session, Mr Bhargava spoke to the audience on what motivated him to write the book. “It was once an iconic brand and today it is grasping for breath,” lamented Mr Bhargava. He spoke about his book, which chronicles the decline of Air India from the iconic status it once commanded, to its current state. What caused the airline to lose its premier status, when and why did things go wrong, and mainly, who was responsible? In his book, Mr Bhargava detailed all the people and events that led to Air India's downfall. Mr Bhargava gives an insider's account of how an iconic brand was run to the ground by politics, apathy and corruption.
“Air India under the legendary JRD Tata was among the best airlines in the world-today it is irrelevant. Worse we aren’t even sure where Indian aviation is headed,” said Sucheta Dalal, founder, Moneylife Foundation. “The privatisation of aviation, the licensing of new entrants has been marked with the most brazen capriciousness, corruption and political interference,” she said.
Mr Bhargava, who was the executive director of the airlines till January 2010, mentioned that every decision was being taken by the government as Air India never had a culture of speaking up. Those who voiced their opinion were asked to leave. Instead of implementing decisions that should have been taken, the airline was bleeding because of decisions that should not have been taken. Impractical expansion plans and thoughtless use of the airline's resources contributed to the national carrier's collapse.
Highlighting one such instance in his book, Mr Bhargava wrote that when India won the T20 cricket world championship, Praful Patel, former aviation minister who oversaw the airlines for some seven years, awarded the entire Indian Team and their families’ free tickets on Air India for five years. The loss making airlines was also made to spend Rs3.5 crore on advertisements to celebrate the T20 win. A media house, for its annual summit, was given Rs30 lakh verbal commitment of free tickets from Air India, again by Praful Patel, in return for publicity! This oral commitment too was honoured since it was made by the minister.
Mr Bhargava brings the force of an insiders’ perspective and the eye of one who watched the decline of Air India’s fortunes almost from the very beginning. He asked some searching questions. Mr Bhargava has written the way he saw it, without embellishment.



jaideep shirali

4 years ago

It makes no sense to keep Air India alive, enough money has been poured down the drain. Our babus, Mr Bhargava included, always spring to life after retirement, just what did they do while in service ? It may be true that AI has not been allowed to function like a business entity, but how many more thousand crores are we to spend to find out whether it was worth it ? This is like another irrigation project, whose cost gallops, completion date is never in sight and cost benefit calculations are then irrelevant. It is easy to play with crores of public money, because it is nobody's personal loss. The AI staff attitude is little better than "public servants", hardly business like even today. AI should be sold off, national prestige be damned.

Suiketu Shah

4 years ago

Wl watch later on
One of the few honest politicians Dr Swamy is in India.

Nifty, Sensex may rally intraday but the trend is down still: Friday closing report

A close above 6,200 on Monday may lead to a short rally in Nifty. However, for now, the trend is down

Both the NSE Nifty and S&P BSE Sensex ended down stretching the losing streak to four days. The Sensex and the Nifty opened at 20,785 and 6,170. The Sensex moved up to the level of 20,821 before dropping off to 20,601, while the Nifty moved up to the level of 6,185 then dropped to as low as 6,121. The Sensex closed at 20,666 (down 157 points or 0.75%) while the Nifty closed at 6,141 (down 47 points or 0.75%).


The National Stock Exchange (NSE) recorded a volume of 60.17 crore shares. Of the 1,221 shares on the NSE, 465 advanced, 707 fell while 49 remained unchanged, signifying a broad weakness.


Most sectoral indices were in the red except for Infrastructure (0.72%), Metals (0.30%), Realty (1.50%) and Pharma (0.13%).


Of the 50 stocks on the Nifty, 17 ended in the green. The top five gainers were Ranbaxy (3.93%); Tata Steel (2.92%); DLF (2.45%); Tata Motors (2.33%) and JP Associates (2.14%), while the top five losers were Axis Bank (4.72%), PNB (4.50%), HDFC (3.69%), ACC (2.74%) and M&M (2.43%).


The markets dipped despite positive news that the United States grew quickly, at 2.8%, during the third quarter of the calendar year as well as the European Central Bank cutting interest rates in a surprise move. However, S&P cut ratings of France which put concerns on growth of Euro region. The markets are awaiting for the US jobs data which will be released today and this will give some hints about the timing of the tapering by US Federal Reserve.


All Asian markets were seen trending down, with Shanghai down 1.09%, Nikkei down 1% and Kospi down 0.96% as well.


Despite Twitter’s smash IPO on debut day, Dow Jones dipped about 0.97%, while Nasdaq was down 1.90%. All European markets were seen trending down on the back of S&P’s decision to slash France ratings. Even the ECB interest rate to cut to 0.25% did little to revive European markets. Euro fell on fears that the ECB will also be soon running out of ammo and would become irrelevant and probably start printing notes.


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