Vested interests from developed economies stalling big projects in India

The letter to the Prime Minister said "There is a need for evolving a strong mechanism to check the vested interests of these developed countries to derail the economy of the developing countries like India”

Indian miners' body Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) fears that vested interests in the US and Western Europe are stalling big projects like POSCO's  $12 billion steel mill and Vedanta's $1.7 billion plans and has sought prime minister Manmohan Singh's intervention in the matter.

FIMI secretary general RK Sharma told PTI that “There is a concerted move by vested interests in US and Western Europe for stalling economic development in India and we have sent a letter to PM on these issues.”

The letter to the Prime Minister said "There is a need for evolving a strong mechanism to check the vested interests of these developed countries to derail the economy of the developing countries like India.”

Mentioning a latest report by international environmental NGO Greenpeace FIMI said that it is easier to stop an industry before it begins. Vested interests have percolated extensively in this country particularly in Odisha.

He added: “I have every apprehension that denial of environment clearance to Niyamgiri Bauxite Mining Project in Odisha and withdrawal of environmental clearance by National Green Tribunal was such an effort by US and Western countries.”
 
The letter said that “Since countries like us who are having natural resources will be able to set up the mineral-based industries at very competitive prices compared to what these developed countries manufacture, the developed countries put all sorts of impediments through local NGOs and provoking people against these mineral based industries in developing countries.”

 It added that the Prime Minister himself had talked about vested interests involvement in creating a problem in Kudankulam Atomic Power Project.

It added: “Once you (Prime Minister) made public statement, everything came out in the open: NGOs were booked and the whole movement fizzled out.”

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China to end monopoly of state-owned banks

“Consensus has emerged among leadership of the ruling Communist Party to let private capital play greater role to reduce, if not break, the state sector’s banking monopoly,” Premier Wen Jiabao said

Challenging for the first time the monopoly of the state-owned banks, China has announced plans to broaden the financial sector reforms by allowing private capital financing. Consensus has emerged among leadership of the ruling Communist Party to let private capital play greater role to reduce, if not break, the state sector’s banking monopoly, Premier Wen Jiabao said.

This is the first time China has acknowledged the monopoly of state-owned banks following last month's announcement of a pilot project to reform the financial sector in Wenzhou, an eastern coastal city with a tradition of entrepreneurship.

Wen, who along with President Hu Jintao and other top leaders is set to retire this year, made the remarks while visiting some companies in Fujian province and the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, state-run China Daily reported on Thursday.

Analysts say the move to open up financial capital was aimed at increasing investment and competition in financial and banking sectors of the world’s second largest economy, giving more scope for its currency Yuan to play bigger role.

Economists have long complained about a lack of progress in reform of the state-dominated banking and financial industry and of inadequate service for the country’s large number of small and medium-sized enterprises.

 “Regarding raising funds for your businesses, I think it has been too easy, quite frankly, for our banks to make profits,” Wen told businessmen during his visit to the factories.

He added: "The reason is that a small number of large banks are in a monopolistic position. It is only from them, and nowhere else, that companies get the loans they need." This is why we've now come to make way for private capital to enter the financial services sector, which ultimately requires breaking monopolies. There is already a consensus among the central leadership, which is reflected, as you can see, by the pilot reform in Wenzhou. "I think some successful practices from Wenzhou's pilot reform can be introduced nationally. Some of the practices may even be immediately implemented."

Under the current system, China's state-owned banks live off an effectively guaranteed spread between deposit and lending rates that are set by the central bank. The spread now stands at around 3 percentage points. The so-called Big Four banks — Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China — raked in a combined profit of about 630 billion yuan ($100 billion) last year against the backdrop of slowing economic growth.
 
The Wenzhou reform was announced by the government on 28 March 2012. It allows private financial services, including setting up village banks and rural financial cooperatives.

Wang Jianhui, chief economist with Southwest Securities Co Ltd, said that a more competitive banking sector would significantly boost the vitality of private businesses.

“The monopoly in the sector makes getting loans expensive. Private businesses, especially smaller ones, have to get cheaper loans to flourish,” he told the daily.
Qiu Zhiming, president of the privately owned Beifa Group, a maker of stationery in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, said big state-owned lenders are charging his company twice as much as the benchmark interest rate by imposing various charges.

He said banks always think up new ways to charge his company more and if he doesn't accept it then he does not get the loan. "At the end of the day you find that a significant part of the profit goes to the banks. Something has to be done, urgently," he said.

The financial sector reforms come at a time when the economy is set to hit a slow-growth cycle. GDP growth may hit a three-year low of 8.4% in the first quarter, Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, said. That figure implies an annualised quarter-on-quarter growth of just 6.5%, below the 7.5% target this year.

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See-saw battle for short term control continues as bears fail to take out the resistance line

Holding of the recent low of 5,171 points is importance as a decisive close below this will ring alarm bells and the efforts of the last couple of weeks will be in vain. Expect selling pressure from the beginning of the coming week

S&P Nifty close: 5322.90

 
Market Trend
Short Term: Sideways        Medium Term: Sideways        Long Term: Down


The Nifty opened the week with an upside gap and rallied exactly into our projected resistance area of 5,372-5,385 points and sold off immediately, thus curtailing the weekly gains to a meagre 27 points (+0.52%). Following the ‘hammer’ last week the Nifty has made a “small body” with a long upper shadow indicating that there is selling pressure at higher levels. It also failed to take out the resistance line (in black) drawn by connecting the recent tops of 5,629 and 5,499 points.

The sectoral indices which outperformed were BSE Consumer Durables (+6.39%), BSE Capital Goods (+3.30%), BSE Power (+3.21%), BSE PSU (+2.07%), BSE Bankex (+1.48%) and BSE Reality (+1.16%) while the gross underperformers were BSE Healthcare (-0.84%), BSE Auto (-0.70%) and BSE Metal (+0.03%).  The weekly histogram MACD continued to move down but is still above the median line indicating that the bulls’ hopes are still alive. However the volumes were poor during the recovery due to the short trading week on account of holidays.

Here are some key levels to watch out for this week
  •  As long as the S&P Nifty stays below 5,327 points (pivot) the bulls would be under pressure even though the intermediate trend is sideways.
  • Support levels in declines are pegged at 5,275 and 5,227 points.
  • Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 5,375 and 5,427 points.

However there is strong possibility that the volatility might expand and the extremes of the above mentioned range might be exceeded.

Some Observations
1.    The Nifty closed above the pivot of last week but has formed a “small body with a long upper shadow” which implies that there is supply at higher levels.
2.    Weekly averages have become positively phased and a close below them would result in the selling pressure accentuating.
3.    Unless and until the 5,372-5,385 points range is taken out in close the bears will hold the edge and a break of the recent low of 5,171 points (in close) would set the cats amongst the pigeons.

Strategy
The recent tops of 5,378 and 5,499 have to be taken out if the bulls want to turn the tide in their favour. Holding of the recent low of 5,171 points is importance as a decisive close below this will ring alarm bells and the efforts of the last couple of weeks will be in vain. Expect selling pressure from the beginning of the coming week.

(Vidur Pendharkar works as a consultant technical analyst & chief strategist at  www.trend4casting.com)

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