As long as the Nifty stays above 7,650, the uptrend may continue
We had mentioned in last week’s closing report that Nifty, Sensex may bounce back a bit and that if Nifty stays above 7,500, it may head for 7,850. The weekly trend of the market has been positive. The high of the week was 7853. Weekly gains of the major indices were of the order of 1.5%-2.0%. The trends of the major indices over the week’s trading are given in the table below:
On Monday, both the bellwether indices of the Indian equity markets opened on a negative note in-sync with their Asian peers and concerns on the parliamentary logjam that has hindered the passage of key economic legislations. However, both the indices soon rose on the back of value buying which was triggered after two-consecutive weeks of losses. The Indian benchmark indices were close to their 52-week lows during the week ended 11 December 2015.
On Tuesday, the investors were optimistic despite the overall ‘wait and watch trend’. The major indices closed a little higher on Tuesday, closing at the high of the day. Initially, both the bellwether indices of the Indian equity markets opened on a slightly positive note in sync with their Asian peers and a rebound in oil prices that supported energy stocks. Investors were cautious ahead of the US Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet slated for Tuesday-Wednesday. Notwithstanding the downward trajectory, markets rose on the back of value buying.
On Wednesday, the Indian stock markets saw a minor rally in continuation of the two previous days of positive trading. The major indices closed with gains of 1.1%. Investors seem to have priced-in the possibility of a 25 basis points hike in key US interest rates. The hike was expected to be announced by the US Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) early Thursday, India time.
On Thursday, there was a sharp rally in all the major indices in the stock market and gains were more than 1.2%. Investors breathed a sigh of relief as the US Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised key interest rates by only 25 basis points. The interest rate rise was widely expected and factored-in by investors. A higher rate hike would have led to massive pull-back of foreign funds from emerging economies like India. In addition, a dovish outlook by the US Fed, which said that it will maintain an accommodative stand, soothed investors' nerves. Besides rate hike, the FOMC projected an improved US economic outlook, lower unemployment and stable inflation. This was a major positive trigger for Indian markets, as US is India's key exports market.
According to government sources, all parties, except the Congress and AIADMK, are supporting the GST Bill at present. The government is in a minority in the Rajya Sabha. The bill was sent to a select committee of the upper house, and a report is with the house now. The logjam in Parliament has been impeding the passage of the Bill The central government on Friday partially succeeded in breaking the logjam in Rajya Sabha after an all-party meet convened by Chairman Hamid Ansari ended on a positive note - but the GST Bill will not be taken up in the current session, a minister said.
On Friday, benchmark indices went down as selling in information technology shares weighed on the sentiment. The US Congress has imposed a special fee of up to $4,500 on the H-1B and L-1 visas popular among Indian IT companies to fund a 9/11 healthcare act and biometric tracking system thus hitting the Indian IT cos. Nasscom, the apex association of information technology (IT) companies, has said a proposal before the American national legislature to raise H-1B and L-1 visa fees may cost the Indian IT firms about $400million. Following the news, the BSE IT sector has dropped 0.8%. Infosys, TCS, Wipro have all slipped between 0.2% - 1.2% each.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said from 1 April 2016, banks must review their lending rates frequently, and reflect changes in their cost of borrowing in a bid to force banks to effectively pass on policy rate cuts. With negative cues from abroad, the major indices fell upto more than 1% over Thursday’s close.
Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, top five and the bottom five sectors for this week were: