If Friday’s gains hold, expect the Nifty to touch 5,000-5,100
A slowdown in factory and services output last month, a rise in weekly food inflation and a downgrade of SBI (State Bank of India) were seen as the main reasons for the market ending 1% lower in the week.
Weak domestic factory output numbers for September and worries about Greece's financial difficulties pushed the market lower on Monday. Moody's downgrade of SBI's financial strength to 'D+' resulted in the market continuing its fall for the third day in a row.
While the market restrained its fall on Wednesday, the contraction in the services sector in September weighed on sentiments. Resuming trade after a day's break, optimism exuded by European leaders to support the continent's banks from collapsing helped the market to close with good gains on Friday.
Overall, the Sensex declined 221 points to close the week at 16,233, and the Nifty fell 55 points to 4,888. We see a positive trend, where the Nifty may touch 5,000-5,100.
The BSE Capital Goods index gained 1% while the BSE Auto index settled flat. Among the losers in the sectoral space, BSE Bankex tumbled 5% and BSE TECk fell 2%.
The top Sensex stocks this week were Maruti Suzuki, Larsen & Toubro (up 3% each), Tata Motors, Sun Pharma (up 2% each) and Coal India (up 1%). The losers were led by State Bank of India (down 8%), Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank (down 6% each), Jindal Steel & Power (down 5%) and Hindalco Industries (down 4%).
The major gainers on the Nifty were Reliance Power (up 6%), IDFC, Reliance Infrastructure (up 5% each), BPCL and Maruti Suzuki (up 3% each). The key losers on the index were SBI (down 8%), Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank (down 6% each), Jindal Steel & Power (down 5%) and Hindalco Industries (down 4%).
HSBC's Factory Purchasing Managers' Index in September 2011 was at 50.4, down from 52.6 in the previous month. The latest reading was the weakest in the current two-and-a-half year sequence of growth. While Indian manufacturers have recorded a modest rise in new business received in September, the rate of new order growth slowed for a sixth successive month.
Similarly, the HSBC Service Sector Business Activity Index for the last month contracted to 49.8 from 53.8 in August. The latest reading is the lowest since April 2009. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in that variable, below 50 points to an overall decrease.
Commenting on the Services PMI data, Leif Eskesen, chief economist for India & ASEAN at HSBC said, "The slowdown in growth has continued to broaden with the service sector seeing a further slowdown in economic momentum, especially for financial intermediation."
Food inflation rose to 9.41% for the week ended 24th September from 9.13% in the previous week, belying the government's expectations of a dip in food prices following a normal monsoon. Commenting on the development, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee said that he was in touch with the Reserve Bank of India to chalk out steps to bring it down to moderate levels.
India's exports maintained their growth momentum in August 2011, rising by 44.2% year-on-year to $24.30 billion despite the economic woes in traditional Western markets. However, the rise was in sharp contract to the 81.79% growth recorded in July at $29.30 billion. Commerce secretary Rahul Khullar has said that growth in coming months will be difficult on account of uncertainty in Western markets.
On the international front, the Bank of England has initiated a second round of quantitative easing to boost the country's faltering economy while the European Central Bank said that it would help commercial banks in the continent by lending them one-year funding in two operations-this month and in December.
Moody's on Friday downgraded the ratings of a dozen British banks, including RBS and Lloyds TSB, as well as of nine Portuguese lenders, amid uncertain financial conditions in Europe.
In the US, monthly non-farm payrolls number rose more-than-expected in September, jumping by 103,000; however, unemployment rate remained steady at 9.1%, according to the US Labor Department.
The IIFL Mutual Fund's NIFTY ETF can be a game-changer, as expense ratios in actively-managed funds are a major component of costs—and can substantially erode your investment over the long term
India Infoline (IIFL) group entity IIFl Mutual Fund has launched its NIFTY ETF which will charge annual recurring expense of just 0.25%. Expense ratios of actively-managed funds are as high as 2% p.a. Normally, an ETF’s expense ratio is typically in the range of 0.25%-0.75%.
This unique feature of the fund makes it attractive to investors. Is it worth buying? As a concept, it’s a breakthrough idea. But the question that arises is, how will it survive with such a low expense ratio? Out of 0.25%, IIFL would get only 0.05% as management fees. Is it that IIFL will be paying all expenses out of its pocket—or will it increase the fees once the corporate decision starts hurting?
If IIFL can keep the cost low, this scheme would be a winner. It is hard to assess what an investment will do for you over the long term. One factor is how much you are spending on having fund companies manage your money. Costs can eat up your returns like termites. By and large, investors pay far too little attention to the costs of investing. When so many costs are hidden (transaction costs, front-end sales charges, taxes incurred on realised gains, etc) or when the stock market returns are high or when investors are focused on short-term returns, the impact of cost over an investment lifetime is ignored. But costs can kill. Here is how. Assume that the stock market generates an average return of 15% a year over 20 years. Now let’s assume that the costs of the average mutual fund are 2.25% a year. Result: a net annual return of just 12.75% for the average fund. Whereas assume that the cost of another mutual fund is 0.25% a year. Result: a net annual return of 14.75% for the average fund. This 2% will make a big difference over the long term.
Funds charging costs of 2.25% a year have to give an average return of 17.2% a year over 20 years to match the net annual return of 14.75% of IIFL Nifty, which is a tough target to achieve.
What you see here—please don’t ever forget it!—is that over the long-term, the miracle of compounding returns is overwhelmed by the tyranny of compounding costs.
This is where this fund of India Infoline scores. The investment management fee is a ridiculous 0.25% per annum while other actively-managed funds charge you 2.5% a year! Thanks to such low costs, over the long term, compounding will make a massive difference to your returns. All else being equal, an IIFL Nifty ETF investor can make 47% more than an average fund investor over 20 years only due to low charges.
If today’s gains hold, expect the Nifty to move up to 5,000-5,100
Optimism by European leaders to support the continent’s banks from collapsing in the ongoing debt crisis helped the market to close higher. In Wednesday’s closing report, we had mentioned that if the Nifty holds above the day’s lows, we may see a short-term bounce till 4,820. After opening much above the previous closing, the index traded well above the previous closing throughout today’s trading session. The trend is on the positive side, the index is now in the zone where we may see a move up to 5,000-5,100.
Refreshed after a day’s break yesterday, the market snapped its four-day losing steak to open on a firm footing on the back of positive global cues following news that euro-zone policymakers moved to shore up struggling European banks. The Nifty opened trade at 4,884, a gain of 133 points over its previous close. The Sensex jumped 430 points to resume trade above its psychological level of 16,000, at 16,222. A rally in metals, banking and IT stocks supported the early gains.
The market was sideways in the morning session with the indices scaling their day’s high at around 10am with the Nifty rising to 4,923 and the Sensex topping 16,347. However, the market pared some of its gains in the noon session on news that global ratings agency Moody’s has downgraded the senior debt and deposit ratings of 12 banks in the UK and nine Portuguese banks.
The benchmarks fell to their intraday lows in post-noon trade with the Nifty down to 4,861 and the Sensex slipping to 16,149. However, the market recouped itself and closed off the lows, snapping its four-day losing streak. The Nifty gained 137 points to close the session at 4,888 and the Sensex settled at 16,233, up 440 points. The NSE (National Stock Exchange) saw a volume of 53.62 crore shares.
The advance-decline ratio on the NSE was 1170:468.
Among the broader indices, the BSE Mid-cap index rose 1.37% and the BSE Small-cap index gained 1.15%.
All sectoral indices settled higher with the BSE Metal index (up 5.39%) leading the pack. It was followed by BSE Bankex (up 3.88%), BSE Realty (up 3.44%), BSE Consumer Durables (up 3.37%) and BSE Capital Goods (up 2.93%).
Sterlite Industries (up 8.56%), Jindal Steel (up 8.22%), Tata Motors (up 7.73%), ICICI Bank (up 5.82%) and DLF (up 5.81%) were the top performers on the Sensex today. The main losers were Bharti Airtel (down 3.34%) and Hero MotoCorp (down 0.26%).
The Nifty gainers were led by Sterlite Ind (up 8.47%), Axis Bank (up 8.41%), Jindal Steel (up 7.70%), Tata Motors (up 7.23%) and Sesa Goa (up 5.86%). Bharti Airtel (down 3.46%), Ambuja Cement (down 2.78%), Tata Power (down 0.71%), Ranbaxy (down 0.55%) and Hero MotoCorp (down 0.21%) ended at the bottom of the index.
Markets in Asia settled mostly in the green after the European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet on Thursday said that the ECB will resume purchases of mortgage-backed securities and re-introduce year-long loans for banks. However, investors were awaiting the US September payroll report, due tonight.
The Hang Seng rallied 3.11%; the KLSE Composite gained 0.46%; the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.98%; the Straits Times surged 1.43%; the Seoul Composite jumped 2.89% and the Taiwan Weighted rose 1.12%. Bucking the trend, the Jakarta Composite lost 0.51%.
Back home, foreign institutional investors were net sellers of stocks worth Rs1,008.87 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors were net buyers of stocks worth Rs322.40 crore.
Casual workers at Maruti Suzuki’s Manesar facility are protesting against the company’s decision to bar them from resuming duty after a 33-day-long stand-off between the company management and permanent employees was settled last week. According to worker sources, the company has not allowed casual workers—who had supported permanent workers during their standoff with the management over signing of a ‘good conduct bond’—to enter the factory since last week. Maruti Suzuki gained 2.81% to close at Rs1,116 on the NSE today.
Medium and heavy vehicles major Ashok Leyland is exploring technologies for launching electric buses and trucks. Though India is at the threshold of developing electric systems, electric vehicles have a “great future in the country.” There are also opportunities in developing software for electronic control units, said Dr V Sumantran, executive vice-chairman, Hinduja Automotive. The stock shed 0.20% to Rs24.55 on the NSE today.
Material handling equipments and transmission products major Elecon Engineering Company has received an order worth Rs33 crore from state-run BHEL for a project in Chhattisgarh. The order is for supply of four sets of wagon tippler for raw materials handling systems of NMDC steel plant at Nagarnar, Chhattisgarh. Elecon Engineering lost 0.07% to settle at Rs71.15 on the NSE.