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India manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5 in February

The February manufacturing PMI in India rose to 52.5, its highest reading in the last 12 months, from 51.4 in January on stronger activity and new orders sub-indices

The manufacturing purchase manager’s index (PMI) rose to 52.5 in February 2014, its highest reading in the last 12 months, from 51.4 in January 2014 on stronger activity and new orders sub-indices.

 

According to Nomura, the output index rose to 54.0 in February 2014 from 52.6 in January 2014. The expansion was led by consumer goods sectors as has been the case over the past few months. Activity levels also improved this month in the intermediate sectors, which suggests that steady demand in the consumer sector is now also flowing to the upstream industries. However, activity in the capital goods sector remained uninspiring.

 

Nomura adds that the pickup in new export orders index for the past three months indicates that export growth is likely to improve following the slack over last few months. The rise in the ratio of new orders to finished goods inventory to 1.07 from 1.02 in January 2014 also suggests that activity levels are likely to sustain in coming months. The summary of PMI data available over the last three months is given in the table below:

 


Nomura believes that GDP growth will continue to consolidate for the new few quarters, given monetary and fiscal tightening and the uncertainty ahead due to the upcoming general elections, and it expects real GDP growth to remain in a 4.5-5.0% range until Q3 2014. Overall, Nomura expects GDP growth to rise only slightly to 5% year-on-year in FY15 (year ending March 2015) from an estimated 4.7% in FY14.

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