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Weekly Nifty View: A close above 5,728 or below 5,638 points on the Nifty will result in a small trending move

Wait patiently for the Nifty to show its hand this week or else the grind continues

S&P Nifty close: 5,684.25

Market Trend

Short Term: Up                                  Medium Term: Up                            Long Term: Down


After a flat opening the Nifty remained choppy throughout the week on alternate bouts of buying and selling. It held on to the weekly support of 5,638 points mentioned last week but could not cross the resistance of 5,728 points, which would have resulted in a continuation of the uptrend. Volumes were lower as compared to the previous week as the Nifty closed eight points (+0.14%) in the green. The histogram MACD, which is above the median level, moved lower indicating that even though the bulls are in control they cannot allow the prices to drift like this for too long.

The sectoral indices which outperformed were CNX Media (+3.24%), CNX PSU Bank (+1.12%), CNX Finance (+0.83%) and CNX Consumption (+0.71%) while the underperformers were CNX Metal (-2.39%), CNX Commodities (-1.50%), CNX Realty (-1.35%), CNX PSE (-1.34%) and CNX Energy (-1.10%)


Some key levels to watch out for this week

 If the S&P Nifty stays below 5,680 points (pivot) the bulls will be under pressure.

 Support levels in declines are pegged at 5,638 and 5,591 points.

 Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 5,726 and 5,769 points.


Some Observations

  1. The Nifty has completed the 61.8% retracement level of the decline from 6,338-4,770 points pegged at 5,740.
  2. The 78.6% retracement level of the fall from 6,338-4,770 points is pegged at 5,951 points, which also coincides with the top of the channel (in brown).
  3. The Nifty is now moving within a sharp up sloping channel (in blue), support from which is pegged around 5,515 points and resistance is pegged around 5,930 points, this week.
  4. We have remained above the previous weekly top of 5,629 points (24 February 2012) which is a sign of strength as long as it stays above it.
  5. The weekly chart above also shows a channel (in brown) the resistance line of which is pegged around 5,972 points. This should be closely watched in the weeks ahead.
  6. The volumes were lower as compared to the previous week which is normal during a correction.


We saw the Nifty move sideways and test the low of 5,638 points (28 September 2012) as well as come close to the weekly pivot support which was pegged at 5,624 points last week. Therefore this 5,638 points level assumes significance from a short term perspective. A decisive breach of this in close could result in the Nifty sliding down to the 5,586, 5,515 or in a pessimistic scenario 5,445 points which are the Fibonacci retracement levels of the rise from 5,215-5,815 points. The current choppiness and low volatility is treacherous for short-term traders but unless and until 5,728 or 5,638 are taken out in close the traders’ nightmare will continue. Wait patiently for the market to show its hand and let’s hope that the Nifty shows its hand this week, or else the grind continues. However, this uncertainty should be resolved in the weeks ahead but till then be stock specific.

(Vidur Pendharkar works as a consultant technical analyst & chief strategist at



TCS Q2 net profit up 49.2% to Rs3,434 crore on robust revenues

The Tata group company's consolidated net profit for September quarter rose 49.2% due to 34.3% growth in revenues

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (TCS), India's largest information technology services company on Friday reported a 49.2% growth in its second quarter net profit on increased revenues.


For the quarter to end-September, the Tata group company said its consolidated net profit rose to Rs3,434 crore from Rs2,301 crore, while its total revenues on a consolidated basis grew 34.3% to Rs15,621 crore from Rs11,756.2 crore, same period last year.


On a standalone basis, TCS reported second quarter net profit of Rs3,722 crore compared with Rs3,187 crore. Its Q2 revenues also rose to Rs13074 crore from Rs10566.8 crore a year ago period.


TCS has declared an interim dividend of Rs3 per share.


Before the results, TCS shares closed 1.1% down at Rs1290 on the BSE, while the benchmark Sensex also  ended marginally lower at 18,682.


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