The Bears are trying to fight back, but as long as this correction does not break the 5,400 level on a weekend close, the Bulls hold the edge. It is to be seen whether they will capitalise on it
S&P Nifty close: 5581.10
SHORT term: Sideways MEDIUM term: Sideways LONG term: Up
With the Nifty failing to hold above 5,670 points (which we mentioned last week) the market dipped in the first half of the week to between the 38.2%-50% retracement (5,468-5,532 points) levels of the rise from 5,195-5,740 points. The Nifty managed to recover some of its losses, but ended the week 79 points (-1.41%) lower. Volumes were significantly lower during the week. The sectoral indices which led the decline were BSE IT (-5.53%), BSE Teck (-4.51%), BSE Metal (-2.36%) and BSE Realty (-1.89%), while the BSE Health (+1.26%), BSE Oil & Gas (+1.12%) and BSE PSU (-0.18%) outperformed.
The sustained rise of the last few weeks has resulted in the Histogram MACD moving above the median line, implying that the intermediate term bias has turned sideways if not up, at this moment. The Nifty seems to be retracing either the fall from 6,181 or the entire decline from 6,338 points, which gives upside targets of 5,767 (50% of 6,338-5,195 came very close to this), 5,804 (61.8% of 6,181-5,195) and 5,902 (61.8% of 6,338-5,195).
We saw the Nifty close marginally below the 20wema pegged at 5,587 points this week as a result of which the Bulls have to take immediate action to push it above this as well as above the resistance line (in purple pegged around 5,655 points) for further upsides, otherwise the efforts of the last few weeks will come to naught.
The Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent rise from 5,195-5,740 are 5,532 (38.2%), 5,468 (50%) and 5,403 (61.8%) and these are also the support levels to watch out for in corrections. The trendline support (depicted in black in the weekly chart above) is pegged around 5,428 points this week. A breach of this could see the Nifty fall to the 5,300-5,320 range at a fast clip.
Here are some key levels to watch out for this week.
The Bears are trying to fight back, but as long as this correction does not break the 5,400 points level on a weekend close, the Bulls hold the edge and the Nifty should try to attempt the 5,804 or 5,902 levels in the weeks ahead. For this to materialize the Bulls have to push the Nifty above the resistance line (in purple) on significantly higher volumes.
In a nutshell, the range seems to have contracted further between the 5,428 (trendline support) and 5,655 (resistance line in purple) and a break-out from this range would provide some impetus in the direction of the break. Its advantage Bulls at the moment, but it is to be seen whether they will capitalise on it.
(Vidur Pendharkar is a consultant technical analyst and chief strategist at www.trend4casting.com.)
Of the 121 crore Indians, 83.3 crore live in rural areas while 37.7 crore stay in urban areas, said the Census of India's 2011 provisional population totals of rural-urban distribution in the country, released by Union home secretary RK Singh
New Delhi: Nearly 70% of the country's population lives in rural areas where, for the first time since independence, the overall growth rate of population has sharply declined, according to the latest census, reports PTI.
Of the 121 crore Indians, 83.3 crore live in rural areas while 37.7 crore stay in urban areas, said the Census of India's 2011 provisional population totals of rural-urban distribution in the country, released by Union home secretary RK Singh.
"For the first time since independence, the absolute increase in population is more in urban areas than in rural areas. The rural-urban distribution is 68.84% and 31.16% respectively," Registrar General of India and census commissioner C Chandramouli said.
The level of urbanisation increased from 27.81% in the 2001 census to 31.16% in the 2011 census, while the proportion of rural population declined from 72.19% to 68.84%.
"The slowing down of the overall growth rate of population is due to the sharp decline in the growth rate in rural areas, while the growth rate in urban areas remains almost the same," Mr Chandramouli said.
However, according to the report, the number of births in rural areas have increased by nine crore in the last decade.
The statistics reveal that while the maximum number of people living in rural areas in a particular state is 15.5 crore in Uttar Pradesh, Mumbai tops the list having the maximum number of people in urban areas at 5 crore.
The data also reflects that 18.62% of the country's rural population lives in Uttar Pradesh and 13.48% urban population lives in Maharashtra.
During 2001-11, the rate of growth of rural population has been 12.18%. The growth of the country's rural population is steadily declining since 1991, the report said.
Meghalaya (27%) and Bihar (24%) witnessed the largest growth in population among states in the past decade. Four states that recorded a decline in the rural population during 2001-11 are Kerala (by 26%), Goa (19%), Nagaland (15%) and Sikkim (5%).
Though the growth rate of population in rural areas of Empowered Action Group (EAG) states is nearly three times that in rural areas in non EAG states, it is for the first time that significant fall of growth rate is seen in the rural areas of EAG states.
The EAG states are Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa.
According to the report, though the urban child sex ratio is far worse than that in rural areas, the fall in child sex ratio in rural areas is around four times that in urban areas.
However, the decline in the child sex ratio is more gradual in urban areas, the report said.
There is a decline of 8.9 million children in rural areas while urban areas have shown increase of 3.9 million children.
The data shows there is an increase in the overall sex ratio in the country from 933 in 2001 to 940 in 2011. However, the improvement in the overall sex ratio is largely in urban areas.
In rural areas in the country there has been an increase by only 1 point from 946 in 2001 to 947 in 2011. In urban areas there has been an appreciable gain of 26 points from 900 in 2001 to 926 in 2011.
In 10 states and UTs, the urban sex ratio is higher than the rural sex ratio in Census 2011. This includes Tamil Nadu, Kerala and National Capital Territory of Delhi, the report said.
The report said the child population in the country declined by 5 million or almost 3% between 2001 and 2011. This is due to the sharp decline of 8.9 million or about 7% in the child population in rural areas.
In urban areas, the child population increased by 3.9 million or about 10%.
The improvement in the literacy rate in rural areas is two times than that in urban areas
The rural-urban literacy gap which was 21.2 percentage points in 2001 has come down to 16.1 percentage points in 2011. There is more improvement in female literacy than in male literacy in both rural and urban areas, according to the data.
The gender gap in literacy has come down from 24.6 in 2001 to 19.8 in 2011 in rural areas and from 13.4 in 2001 to 9.8 in 2011 in urban areas.
The auction, which begins on 20 July 2011, will take place online at www.saffronart.com
Saffronart, an online fine-art auction house, will showcase a significant selection of works on paper by 22 modern masters at its next 24-Hour Auction. The selection includes works by leading Indian artists Tyeb Mehta, VS Gaitonde, FN Souza, Nasreen Mohamedi, Arpita Singh, Jogen Chowdhury and more. The auction, which begins on 20 July 2011 at 8.00pm (IST), will take place online at www.saffronart.com.
Through its transparent online auction platform, Saffronart has made modern and contemporary Indian art accessible to a broad base of collectors around the globe. In 2009, Saffronart became the first fine-art auction house globally to launch a mobile bidding application for the iPhone, Blackberry and other mobile devices. The application offers clients a new, convenient and secure bidding experience, and enables collectors to engage with Saffronart in more places and with fewer boundaries. Collectors may place bids at Saffronart's website www.saffronart.com, or via Saffronart's proprietary Blackberry and iPhone mobile applications.