Stocks resume their upward march

Growth in Chinese industrial production strengthened the Indian market rally

The Indian stock market continued its bull run on Wednesday on hopes of a robust recovery in the global economy after China reported strong growth in industrial production for October. The Sensex closed at 16,850, up 409 points, while the Nifty gained 122 points to close at 5,004.

Asian markets also gained on buoyant Chinese macro data. The key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore rose by between 0.82%-1.61% while Japan remained flat.  However the Shanghai Composite fell 0.11%.
On Tuesday, 10th November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 20 points at 10,247, the S&P 500 index ended flat at 1,093 while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell three points to close at 2,151.

Meanwhile in premarket trading on Wednesday, the Dow Jones index was trading 61 points higher.

In the Indian market, IT stocks continued to firm up after the president of industry body Nasscom said the sector will regain double-digit growth from April 2010. Tata Consultancy Services was up 3% while Infosys Technologies and Wipro were up 4% each.

Shipping stocks rose after the Baltic Dry Index breached the 3,500 level on Tuesday. Shipping Corporation of India, Mercator Lines and Great Eastern Shipping Company were up by 9%, 14% and 6%, respectively.

Jubilant Organosys shot up 20% on news that its wholly owned subsidiary Jubilant Biosys has signed a pact with Singapore-based Duke University for global research and drug development.

C&C Constructions jumped 6%, after the company’s board approved raising funds through various modes.

Rural Electrification Corporation rose 5% after the company received government’s approval for a follow-on public offer of 17.17 crore shares.

Shree Renuka Sugars was up 2%, after the company acquired Vale Do Ivai S.A., a Brazil-based sugar and ethanol company, while Ballarpur Industries went up 2% after the company redeemed debentures worth Rs1,000 crore issued by its a step-down subsidiary, BILT Graphic Paper Products.

Pyramid Saimira Theatre was locked at the lower circuit limit of 10% at Rs 19.65 after the Securities and Exchange Board of India barred the company from trading in the capital market for seven years.

India’s largest small-car marker Maruti Suzuki remained flat despite data showing that total car sales in October rose 34% to 132,615 units. Sales of trucks and buses, a gauge of economic activity, rose 52% last month to 42,562 units.
Meanwhile, trade secretary Rahul Khullar said exports fell 11.4% to $12.5 billion in October 2009 over October 2008. Between April and October 2009, exports were at $90.4 billion, down 26.5% from the year-ago period, he added.

As per media reports, C Rangarajan, chairman of the prime minister’s economic advisory council, made a statement that the Reserve Bank of India may withdraw some monetary stimulus if inflation rises towards the end of 2009. The fiscal deficit needed to be reduced by 1%-1.5% in the next fiscal year, he said.

Finance secretary Ashok Chawla said on Wednesday that the rising capital inflows into India were not a concern any more and the authorities were monitoring the situation. He also said India’s economy was unlikely to reach growth rates of 8%-9% until exports revived. Earlier this month, the trade minister had said exports may start growing in annual terms from the March 2010 quarter.

Meanwhile, data showed that China’s industrial production surged 16.1% in October 2009 from a year earlier after record loan disbursals by banks so far this year. The industrial production growth exceeded market expectations. Retail sales climbed 16.2%.  The growth in urban fixed-asset investments in the first ten months of this year was 33.1%, easing from the 33.4% growth in the first nine months of 2009. The consumer price index fell 0.5% from a year earlier and the producer price index shrank 5.8%, with each dropping more than economists had estimated but still showing an increase from data in the previous month.

Exports, a key engine for China’s economic growth and a major source of employment for its people, dropped at a higher-than-expected 13.8%, though the contraction was an improvement over the 15.2% decline in September 2009.

New loans issued by Chinese financial institutions dropped in October 2009 to their lowest monthly level this year, suggesting mainland Chinese authorities were scaling back a key source of stimulus for the economy. However, China’s key broad measure of money supply, M2, rose 29.42% at the end of October 2009 from a year earlier, in line with expectations.
— Swapnil Suvarna [email protected]


Sex pills will remain as OTC drugs

Moneylife mentioned some time back (6 October 2009, Sex sells in drugs too) that pre-sex and post-sex drugs, Revital and i-pill tablets are growing by 25% and they have replaced the largest-selling drugs like Corex and Phensedyl. Over the past few days, there has been a major furore among religious organisations and individuals objecting to television and print media advertising for post-sex drugs for women. i-pill and Unwanted 72 have levonorgestrel, a synthetic derivative of the naturally occurring female sex hormone, progesterone. Gynaecologists have reported problems like irregular menstruation and other side-effects from these pills.

Gynaecologists have also reported incidents of unsafe sex among teens because of these medications as teens use them easily without knowing the harmful side-effects of continuous usage of these drugs, as they are easily available as OTC drugs. A few organisations have opposed the use of these pills as OTC drugs and they want to make them prescription drugs. However, the Drug Technical Advisory Board (DTAB) has decided against making these drugs prescription-based as it felt that this necessity of prescription will defeat the purpose of these drugs which are meant to be taken within 72 hours of unsafe sex. The Cipla website mentions that i-pill is 95% effective within 24 hours of unprotected sex, 85% between 25-48 hours and 58% effective if taken between 49-72 hours.

However the DTAB suggested that there could be an expert committee having gynaecologists, information and broadcasting ministry officials and other people who can decide about the advertising of such pills. The committee would judge on what these advertisements could contain—like possible side-effects and minimum interval to be maintained between two successive doses.
—Dhruv Rathi [email protected]


Coming to a Screen near You

In a move that fund companies say will change the mutual fund distribution game, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is likely to ensure that mutual funds are sold by stockbrokers off their trading screens. The fund units will be lodged in the demat accounts of unit-holders.

Currently, trading in stocks is compulsorily in dematerialised form, while mutual funds are sold through large nationwide distributors, like banks, and also small independent financial advisors. A top official of one of the largest Indian mutual funds told Moneylife that SEBI wants to encourage the fund industry to take the stocks route (exchange-broker-demat).

In July, SEBI banned entry loads that distributors used to get for pushing funds. The entry load, which ran as high as 6%, used to come from the corpus of the fund itself. SEBI has now mandated that investors have to pay the distributors directly for the services they get and it is between them to negotiate what those services are and how much they should pay. Ever since SEBI enacted this rule, new fund offerings (NFOs) are down to a trickle, despite the Sensex having climbed more than 120% since early March. The distributors, especially independent financial advisors (IFAs), have been left high and dry after the regulator abolished the load.

Mutual fund companies have kept their show going by paying out 0.5% commission to advisors from their own fees; the larger distributors are being paid 1%. Some, like JM Financial Asset Management which have a poor long-term performance record, are even paying as much as 1.5% as upfront load plus 1% brokerage on systematic investment plans (SIPs) and systematic transfer plans (STPs). Such a steep payout will affect the profitability as well as long-term survival of the asset management company (AMC). Under the circumstances, the fund industry is even more focused on large corporate investments and has no interest in incurring the high cost of servicing retail investors. After the AMFI (Association of Mutual Funds in India) general body meeting held in early October, it seems that fund companies have completely fallen in line with the regulations. It remains to be seen what the smaller fund companies will do.
SEBI’s latest view—of putting funds on the demat platform—is likely to be welcomed by fund companies which used to be powerless against large distributors like banks. “Often distributors would recommend a fund to investors on which they earned a fatter commission, not the ones that are best-suited for the investors,” says the chief investment officer of the one of the top five fund houses. “The balance of power was too much against us. SEBI’s move had rightly changed the balance of power. The distributor network remains important to us.

But we would certainly welcome a move that allows us to reach 1,500 towns at one go, through the broking network.” However, the CEO of another fund company is sceptical about how far the new idea will help. According to him, funds can never be sold like stocks. They can only be sold by a different set of intermediaries, like distributors.

Meanwhile, on their own, mutual funds have no strategy now to combat SEBI’s order. At the AMFI general body meeting, members were supposed to discuss a representation to SEBI. But the meeting ended with no clear action plan. The AMFI meeting, which lasted several hours, saw members agitated about the directive but it led to nothing. One of the suggestions was to set up a committee to take up the issue with SEBI. However, by the end of the meeting, members decided that the committee would be a futile effort, given SEBI’s strong stance on the issue. When contacted by Moneylife, AP Kurian, chairman, AMFI, refused to comment on the proceedings of the meeting claiming them to be an ‘internal matter’. 


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