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Weak opening for Indian stocks indicated: Tuesday Market Preview

Lack of participation from institutional investors is putting a cap on the gains

The domestic market is likely to open soft as markets across the world reeled lower on continued concerns about the pace the economic growth. US stocks ended in the red for the fourth day as the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing, also known as QE2 comes to an end this month. Dismal economic data from the US last week continued to keep the Asian bourses lower in early trade on Tuesday. The SGX Nifty was down 41.50 points to 5,495 compared to its previous close of 5,536.50.

The market, which opened lower on concerns about the pace of the global recovery yesterday, pushed itself into the positive in post-noon trade, on support from the IT, healthcare and banking sectors.

The Sensex opened 32 points lower at 18,344 and the Nifty was down 13 points at 5,504. The market was range-bound in negative territory, weighed down by auto, power and technology stocks and absence of cues from Asia, as most bourses were closed for local holidays. The indices fell to their intra-day low in the mid-morning session with the Sensex touching 18,258 and the Nifty falling to 5,480.

However, bargain hunting after two days of decline lifted the indices into the green. The indices touched their intra-day highs in the last hour with the Nifty at 5,543, adding 26 points to its previous close and the Sensex 83 points higher at 18,459.

The market closed near the day's high, snapping a two-day decline. At the end of trade, the Sensex added 44 points at 18,420 and the Nifty finished 15 points up at 5,532.

Although the market opened weak and the Nifty hit an intra-day low well below its first resistance of 5,550, it managed to make an intra-day high near that level. The Nifty should be able to maintain itself above this level to still see an uptrend. The Nifty should be in a position to sustain itself above the level of 5,435 to avoid the downtrend. The movement between 5,435 and 5,550 will be a range-bound movement.

US stocks settled lower for the fourth consecutive day as the Fed’s QE2 comes to an end at the end of June Financial stocks were lower on rumours that Washington is contemplating increasing reserve requirements for lenders. Bank of America and Citigroup plunged 3.9% each. Wells Fargo & Co, the largest US home lender, declined 2.2% after Rochdale Securities’ Richard Bove cut his recommendation on the stock. Energy shares were also among the hardest-hit sectors, with Chevron Corp falling 1.3% to $9.68 as the biggest drag on the Dow.

The Dow declined 61.15 points (0.50%) to 12,090.11. The S&P 500 fell 13.99 points (1.08%) to 1,286.17 and the Nasdaq Composite was down 30.22 points (1.11%) to 2,702.56.

Markets in Asia were down in early trade on Tuesday on concerns about the slowdown in economic growth in the US and lingering debt issues in Europe. The Nikkei was flat as short-covering in utilities and bargain-hunting offset fears of a slowdown in the US economy. Shares in Seoul were down, weighed down by the technology and crude refining companies.

The Hang Seng declined 0.61%, the Jakarta Composite fell 0.35%, the KLSE Composite was down 0.13%, the Straits Times fell by 0.31%, the Seoul Composite tanked 0.76% and the Taiwan Weighted was 0.49% lower. On the other hand, the Shanghai Composite added 0.11% and the Nikkei 225 was up 0.03%.

Oil fell on Monday on expectations that OPEC will raise production targets this week and concerns about the economic outlook. Brent crude for July delivery fell $1.36 to settle at $114.48 a barrel, the weakest close in nearly two weeks while US July crude fell $1.21 to settle at $99.01 a barrel, also the lowest close in two weeks.

Back home, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects the new marginal standing facility (MSF) to be tested during the tight liquidity period next week when banks and corporates pay their quarterly advance tax.

The apex bank had introduced the MSF while unveiling the annual monetary policy, stating that banks can borrow up to 1% of their total deposits from the RBI under the MSF facility at a rate, which is 100 basis points higher than the short-term lending (repo) rate.

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Finance ministry to keep fiscal deficit in check despite low revenue

The government managed to contain fiscal deficit, the gap between overall expenditure and receipts, at 4.7% of GDP during 2010-11, much lower than the revised estimate of 5.1%. For the current fiscal, it proposes to bring down the fiscal deficit to 4.6% of the GDP

New Delhi: The finance ministry today said it would endeavour to keep the fiscal deficit for the current fiscal at 4.6% of the gross domestic product (GDP) despite an anticipated slowdown in revenue collection, reports PTI.

"For the finance minister (containing) the fiscal deficit is very important. He (Pranab Mukherjee) says the fiscal deficit should be contained at 4.6%. So we will all work towards that," Department of Economic Affairs secretary R Gopalan said.

He was speaking on the sidelines of a conference organised by the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy here.

Asked about the government finances, he said the growth rate of revenue is likely to be less this fiscal as compared to what was achieved in 2010-11.

"Our assessment or estimation of the growth in revenue this year is less than that of the last fiscal... As regards to expenditure, we will try and maintain (it) at the level which we had provided in the budget," he said.

The government managed to contain fiscal deficit, the gap between overall expenditure and receipts, at 4.7% of GDP during 2010-11, much lower than the revised estimate of 5.1%.

For the current fiscal, the government proposes to bring down the fiscal deficit to 4.6% of the GDP.

The deficit stood at Rs3,69,043 crore for the fiscal ended March 2011, constituting 4.69% of the GDP.

The Centre's fiscal deficit was lower by around Rs32,000 crore over the revised estimates for 2010-11 on the back of better revenue realisation and expenditure compression.

Total fiscal deficit during the year was 92% of the revised estimate of Rs4,00,998 crore, showing an improvement on the fiscal front.

The Centre also cut its revenue deficit, an excess of the current expenditure over the current receipts, to 3.11% of GDP against the projected 3.4%. It was lower than even 3.2% projection as per the road map given by the 13th Finance Commission.

In 2011-12, the government is looking at bringing it down to around 3%.

Total revenue receipt during 2010-11 was Rs7,94,277 crore (as per provisional figures), up almost 39% from the actuals of Rs5,72,811 crore in the previous fiscal.

The government had revised the revenue collection figure for 2010-11 at Rs7,83,833 crore, Rs10,444 crore more than the revised estimate.

In his Budget speech in February, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee pegged the revenue collection for the current fiscal at Rs7,89,892 crore.

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