The market is likely to witness a gap-down open on the back of unsupportive global cues. The Sensex and Nifty closed higher by 1% last week following better economic indicators and corporate earning reports. Wall Street closed with huge declines on Friday on negative consumer sentiments and the Asian counterparts are trading in the red reflecting the US markets. However, while first quarter (Q1) corporate earnings from Indian companies have so far been in line with analysts’ expectations, the market this week will be largely driven by Q1 numbers in the absence of major domestic economic triggers.
Markets in Asia were in the negative zone in initial trade on Monday on lower US earnings. Influential indices like Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng were down between 0.14% and 1.11%. Japanese Nikkei is closed today for a local holiday. The SGX Nifty was down 41 points at 5,360 from its previous close of 5,401.
The US markets witnessed a steep decline on Friday on disappointing earnings reports from banks and poor consumer confidence numbers. All the major indices closed lower by more than 2.5%, wiping out most of their weekly gains. Financial shares tanked 4.4%, the most in two months. On the economic front, an index of consumer sentiment compiled from the survey by University of Michigan and Reuters fell to 66.5 in early July from 76. That was a bigger drop than expected.
The Dow declined by 261.41 points (2.52%) to 10,097.90. The S&P 500 index tanked 31.60 points (2.88%) to 1,064.88. The Nasdaq tumbled by 70.03 points (3.11%) to 2,179.05. For the week, the Dow fell 1%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% and the Nasdaq shed 0.8%.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday extended the special liquidity facility, which was provided to banks to tide over cash crunch by two weeks to 30th July. The apex bank on 28th May allowed banks to maintain a lower statutory liquidity ratio (SLR), by 0.50%, and raise funds from securities thus freed through a second liquidity adjustment facility till 2nd July. This facility was further extended to 16th July. The apex bank has now decided to continue the facility for rest of the current month.
Vulnerability of kharif crops has increased on account of deficient rainfalls across most of the key producing states, a National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) report has said. The major vulnerable states are Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal, Karnataka and eastern Rajasthan.
The report quoting India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the country received rainfall of 254.5 mm against a normal of 292.5 mm, a deficiency of 13% from 1st June to 14th July. However, the department is optimistic stating that the overall situation does not look worrisome as it was last year.
Among corporates that are scheduled to declare their first quarter numbers today include Canara Bank, Crompton Greaves, HDFC Bank, Sesa Goa, PTC India and Jindal Saw.
While there are no listed stocks that are in the same business, Midfield's pre-issue P/E of 12.8 (at the lower band) is high
Hyderabad-based Midfield Industries Ltd, a manufacturer and marketer of industrial packaging consumables plans to hit the market on today, 19th July 2010 with its Initial Public Offering. The issue closes on 21 July 2010.
The company is issuing 45 lakh shares at a price band of Rs126-Rs133 per share and plans to raise Rs56.70-Rs59.85 crore depending on the price discovery. The company will use the money for capacity expansion at the existing facilities, to set up new facilities, and to enhance its working capital needs. TIL currently exports to USA, UK, Canada, South Africa, Australia and Middle East countries. Its exports contributed just 3.33% to its total revenues as on 31st March 2010. MIL reported a net profit of Rs8.1 crore on a total income of Rs90 crore in the year ended 31 March 2010. As on 31st March 2010, its earnings per share (EPS) stood at 9.78. It had a total debt of Rs42.32 crore (as on 31st March 2010) and its debt to equity ratio stands was 1.25: 1.
Steel strapping which is its flagship product has contributed 65.21% of its total sales during the financial year FY09-10. Interestingly, TIL has defaulted on a loan of Rs3.50 crore taken from SE Investments Ltd and is yet to pay Rs1.06 crore back.
Based on its FY10 EPS of Rs9.78, MIL’s IPO price is carries a P/E of 12.88 on the lower side of the band and 13.60 at the upper band. Based on the post-issue diluted basis, the P/E comes to 20-21. Brickwork Ratings (BWR) has assigned an IPO ‘Grade 2’ to Midfield Industries Ltd IPO indicating 'below average fundamentals'. Atherstone Capital Markets Ltd is the sole lead book running manager to the issue.
The company provides packaging consumables like high tensile steel strapping in various dimensions and strengths, different seals for different applications, collated nails & corner boards being used for general and the end of line packaging of goods to various industries. Currently MIL caters to industries like steel, aluminum, glass, copper, paper, automobile, white goods and refractory.
MIL operates in a niche segment and has no listed competitive peers. The business is humdrum and there are plenty of players in the unorganised sector selling the same stuff. It competes with the multi national firm ITW Signode India Ltd in operational contracts space. There can be a possibility of its clients preferring polyester strapping over metal strapping. The company has plans to foray in manufacturing of polyester strapping, (poly-propylene) PP strapping, VCI paper and stretch film.
Finally, the regulatory rigmaroles in the gas space should be soon resolved—with positive ramifications for gas distribution and transmission companies
The gas regulatory board has got real teeth now that Section 16 of the PNGRB Act of 2006 has been notified with effect from 15th July. This is a big step towards resolving the regulatory rigmaroles in the gas space and will be positive for gas distribution and transmission companies. This will also push forward badly needed investments in this space.
PNGRB (the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board) was formed in
October 2007 but it did not have the authority to issue distribution rights to companies retailing CNG for automobiles and piped cooking gas to households because for some peculiar reason, the Act was notified without Section 16 which gave PNGRB the right to call for bids. Despite this, PNGRB conducted two rounds of bidding for city gas distribution (CGD) rights. GAIL Gas, a wholly-owned subsidiary of GAIL India won the first round - it got five cities - while Bhagyanagar Gas, a 50:50 JV of GAIL and Hindustan Petroleum Corp got Kakinada. When PNGRB called for the second round of bidding for seven cities, including Ghaziabad, Allahabad and Chandigarh, Indraprastha Gas (IGL) challenged its right (in the Delhi High Court) to issue licenses without Section 16 being notified, and the court upheld the challenge. This caused the auction process to come to a grinding halt.
IGL objected mainly because it had already been given the mandate by the Environment Prevention & Control Authority, a central government entity, to establish a CGD network in Ghaziabad before the PNGRB Act. Not surprisingly, after the government authorised IGL to continue developing Ghaziabad, its share price ran up from Rs240 to Rs293 -it is close to an all-time high now.
It is possible that the two rounds that PNGRB has already conducted will get implicit approval and we might see more than 10 cities ready to set up gas distribution networks very soon. Earlier, the PNGRB apparently had plans to develop CGD network in 330 additional cities, by putting 8-10 cities up for auction each month over the next two to three years. With more than two years of sluggish activity, this pace seems ambitious. But who knows what the PNGRB can achieve now that its hands have been unshackled?
The fact is all gas stocks are likely to roll and pitch in the wake of PNGRB getting authority under Section 16. In the pyramid of beneficiaries, the gas distribution companies such as IGL and Gujarat Gas will be at the top. These would be followed by gas transmission companies such as GAIL and GSPL. At the third tier will be gas supply companies such as RIL and Petronet LNG.
Recently, following the rise in administered price of gas, IGL demonstrated its pricing power by passing on the full increase to customers without any drop in volume. Therefore, there is no doubt that demand for CNG is strong (it results in 50% savings on an average over diesel and petrol). With the cut in LPG subsidy recently, even PNG will be more attractive to users - earlier the advantage was only about 3%. IGL has a strong presence in Delhi and it will be fairly easy for the company to expand in the north. Gujarat Gas is spread over Ahmedabad, Surat, Bharuch, and Valsad. However, with the freeing of distribution rights, it will be able to bid for more cities in western India.
GAIL is the largest gas transmission and distribution company in India. Its arterial HBJ pipeline is the country's largest. It is spending Rs340 billion over 4-5 years on pipelines and an assured RoCE (Return on Capital Employed) on these investments reduces risks and also provides visibility, not to mention leads to upgrades in valuation. Fast-paced gas distribution licenses will undoubtedly benefit GAIL. It will also benefit directly by bidding for city gas distribution projects through its wholly-owned subsidiary GAIL Gas. GSPL, which has 1,573 km of gas pipeline in operation from Hazira-Vadodara-Ahmedabad-Kalol-Himmatnagar-Mehsana-Rajkot-Morbi-Anjar-Jamnagar, transports more than 35 MMSCMD of gas and has 450 km of gas pipeline under execution.
Both GAIL and GSPL have shown improvement in their volumes after the supply of RIL's gas began. With more cities ready to supply CNG, volume estimates for both GAIL and GSPL should be revised upwards. Gas suppliers such as RIL and Petronet LNG can also benefit, but it depends purely on their ability to ramp up supply to match demand and also in Petronet LNG's case, to supply at a reasonable price (since Petronet is a re-gasification company, its prices fluctuate with spot rates, even though it has long-term contracts with gas suppliers abroad). Brokers have been telling their institutional clients today that bidding for six pipelines (6,000km) which was postponed should now begin -in fact, they believe the process will kick-start and will be completed in the next few weeks.