Nifty to move up to 5,600, subject to minor dips
The market settled flat over the week, mostly on fluctuating global cues and concerns about a possible rise in diesel prices that will impact all sectors. However, a clutch of positive corporate earnings shielded the indices from a steep fall. Investors are also worried that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will likely tweak rates further, in its monetary policy review next month.
Lingering debt concerns in Europe pulled the domestic market down on Monday. It settled almost unchanged on Tuesday. Dismal earnings by realty major DLF the day before and weak global cues led to a negative close on Wednesday. However, a rally on the last two days cut the earlier losses and the Sensex closed the week at 18,266, down 60 points, while the Nifty finished at 5,476, off just 10 points. If the Nifty crosses 5,490, the market may witness a strong rally up to 5,600, subject to dips.
Among the Sensex stocks, ONGC, Hindalco Industries, Hero Honda and Reliance increased 3% each and ICICI Bank gained 2%. On the losing side, Tata Motors, BHEL declined by 7% each, State Bank of India fell by 4%, TCS and NTPC lost 3% each.
In the sectoral space, BSE Oil & Gas advanced by 2%, BSE Consumer Durables was up by 1%, whereas BSE Power and BSE IT fell by 2% each.
On the economic front, food inflation which had been declining over the previous three weeks, went up by 1.08 percentage point to 8.55% in the week ended 14th May, from the 7.47% recorded in the previous week.
After the petrol price hike a fortnight ago, prices of diesel, LPG and kerosene could be hiked next month when the ministerial panel headed by finance minister Pranab Mukherjee meets to take a decision on the issue.
Domestically, the timely arrival of the monsoon would have a significant impact on the sentiment at home in the next fortnight.
In corporate news, while recommending conditional approval for the Cairn-Vedanta deal, the group of ministers (GoM) considering the matter, said the two companies must agree to treat royalty on the mainstay Rajasthan block as cost recoverable, and agree to pay cess.
The GoM felt that as a pre-condition for the nod, Cairn or its purchaser should agree to pay cess on the all-important Rajasthan block, as well as agree to cost-recovery of Rs18,000 crore in royalty that state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is paying on the fields.
Earlier this week, chief economic advisor Kaushik Basu expressed confidence that the government would achieve its fiscal deficit target, but he said that if the number comes under pressure from factors like rising commodity prices, it would have to opt for reforms such as deregulating diesel prices. In his budget speech, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee had lowered the fiscal deficit target to 4.6% of the gross domestic product (GDP) from 5.1% for the previous fiscal.
On the global front, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said that the global economic recovery is on track, helped by a stronger US economy, but threats ranging from high crude prices to European sovereign debt issues deepen the slowdown. In its twice yearly economic outlook, the Organisation forecast world growth would ease to 4.2% this year from 4.9% in 2010. It said that the setback due to the earthquake in Japan could disrupt the supply chain in other countries.
The GoM felt that as a pre-condition for the nod, Cairn or its successor should consent to paying cess on the all important Rajasthan block as well as agree to cost-recovery of Rs18,000 crore in royalty that state-owned ONGC pays on the fields
New Delhi: Recommending conditional approval for the Cairn-Vedanta deal, a Group of Ministers (GoM) on Friday said the two companies must agree to treating royalty on the mainstay Rajasthan block as cost recoverable, and agree to pay cess, reports PTI.
Sources privy to the deliberations said the GoM felt that as a pre-condition for the nod, Cairn or its successor should consent to paying cess on the all important Rajasthan block as well as agree to cost-recovery of Rs18,000 crore in royalty that state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) pays on the fields.
Cairn should also withdraw arbitration proceeding it has initiated, disputing its liability to pay Rs2,500 per ton cess on its 70% share in the Rajasthan block.
The recommendation of the GoM headed by finance minister Pranab Mukherjee will go to the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) in two weeks time, oil minister S Jaipal Reddy told reporters after the 75-minute long meeting.
“It (GoM) has looked at various aspects of the ($9.6 billion) deal. It has taken a view on the matter. This view will be presented to the CCEA. The GoM is not going to meet again,” he told reporters here. “The recommendation was unanimous.”
He refused to any details of deliberations at the GoM.
Cairn will also have to seek consent of ONGC, which holds stake in 8 out of the 10 properties held by Cairn India in the country.
Also, Vedanta will need a security clearance from the ministry of home affairs.
Cairn holds 70% interest in the Rajasthan block but does not pay any royalty. It is opposed to cost recovery of royalty payments that ONGC makes on its behalf.
Meanwhile, ahead of the GoM meet, London-listed mining group Vedanta Resources said it has raised $1.65 billion (Rs7,425 crore) through private placement of bonds to part-finance its $9.4 billion acquisition of Cairn India.
Vedanta had in August agreed to buy at least 40% stake in Cairn India from its parent Cairn Energy Plc.
Cairn has refused to accept the requirement of partner consent even though five oil blocks it won under New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) explicitly provides for obtaining no objection from partners in case of change of ownership.
It holds 70% interest in the Rajasthan block but does not pay any royalty. It is opposed to cost recovery of the Rs18,000 crore royalty payments that ONGC has to make on its 30%, as well as Cairn's share of production. ONGC made the demand a month prior to the announcement of the Cairn-Vedanta deal in August 2010.
The CCEA had on 6th April constituted a GoM to look into the issue of conditional or unconditional consent to the Cairn-Vedanta deal.
Friday was the first meeting of the GoM which also comprised law minister M Veerappa Moily, telecom minister Kapil Sibal, commerce minister Anand Sharma and Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia.
Mr Sharma was unable to attend the meeting.
“We have taken up the matter in right earnest. We have taken a view at our level. The decision has to be taken by CCEA,” Mr Reddy said.
Solicitor General Gopal Subramaniam had in March opined that the government should not give unconditional nod to the deal and reaffirmed its views in a second opinion on 6th April.
The MLM company promises five-star travel packages on joining and lucrative compensation fees up to Rs4.5 lakh on its direct selling model
Travel Ventures International (TVI) Express, a multi-level marketing (MLM) company, is growing its base in India. And like in the recent case of another MLM, Speak Asia Online that is being investigated, some people are questioning the big promises on its business model.
TVI Express claims to be in the home-based direct selling business, inviting those interested, to become members on a payment of Rs15,500. Members get a seven-nights-eight-days travel package in 3/5 star hotels of their choice, from about 4,000 hotels that the company has a tie-up with. A new member also gets a personal portal, which is primarily a booking website.
The company has a business model which, it says, is compensation-based. The member can sell the travel package to two new members. Those two new members would in turn sell the travel package to a further two members each. This goes on till level four, which is known as "Traveller Board". On completion of Traveller Board the top member is paid a compensation of Rs31,000.
Beyond this there is an "Express Board" level. Once the Traveller Board is completed, members can enter the "Express Board". Here too, the number of new entrants increases, taking the original members a step ahead. On completion of "Express Board", the top member gets Rs4.5 lakh as compensation fees.
Members also get a 5%-10% bonus for every new member joining after he/she "cycles out of Express board". It also rewards the members with incentives "ranging from luxury cars to private jets and splendid villas in exotic locations around the world."
However, contrary to the company's claims, members have alleged that it is not paying the promised compensation. According to complaints posted on consumer forums on the Internet, the TVI Express business model is a scam, as many members who have increased their down line have not been paid any compensation.
TVI Express has a presence in many countries, among them the United Kingdom, South Africa, Canada, France, Germany and China.
Interestingly, according to a news report, The Bank of Namibia had warned people about investing in TVI Express and Holiday and Cash because they were operating in Namibia in violation of the laws.
When Moneylife called TVI Express, a company official said: "We abide by the laws. We follow all the rules and regulations. Ours is not an investment scheme; our business works on compensation fees which we pay to our members, who generate business for us. Those who work, earn. All these complaints are posted by our competitors who are jealous of our business growth."
Meanwhile, it has been reported that bank accounts in Singapore of Speak Asia, the online survey company which is being investigated, have been frozen, disrupting payouts to vendors, clients and staff.
Moneylife has consistently exposed the dubious claims made by such MLM companies that are promising high returns in a short span. (Read, "Stay on guard: Need to regulate MLM firms, websites, so investors don't suffer".)