Sensex, Nifty under pressure: Weekly Closing Report

Nifty has to close above 5,900 for the downtrend to reverse

The Indian market broke the trend of closing positive for four consecutive weeks by closing in the negative in this week. The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 536.44 points (or 2.65%) to close the week at 19,727.27 while the Nifty settled at 5,833.2, down 178.90 points (or 2.98%).


The after effects of Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s surprise move to raise policy rates and the statement made by James Bullard, president of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, that the US Fed could make a small stimulus reduction at its next meeting in October, brought the Sensex lower for the second consecutive session on Monday. Economic affairs secretary Arvind Mayaram said that the government would cut spending if revenue falls short of the budget projections, but won't breach the full-year fiscal-deficit target—4.8% of gross domestic product for this year. On Tuesday, the indices tried recovering but ended flat. The Indian government's decision on Tuesday not to raise fuel prices has sparked concerns about the fiscal deficit. With the US consumer confidence going down in September to a four-month low and worries over a Washington debt-ceiling conflict, global markets and Indian indices went down on Wednesday. On Thursday, indices again ended flat though the trading session was marked by volatility because of the derivatives expiry.


Ahead of general elections, the Indian government on Wednesday announced constitution of the Seventh Pay Commission, which will look into increasing salaries, allowances and pensions of about 80 lakh of its employees and pensioners.


The setting up of the Pay Commission, whose recommendations will benefit about 50 lakh central government employees, including those in defence and railways, and about 30 lakh pensioners, comes ahead of the Assembly elections in five states in November and the general elections next year.


Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Thursday said that the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) and the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) will look into the payment crisis at National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL).


The recommendations of Raghuram Rajan Committee, along with the allocation methodology, will effectively subsume what is now 'special category' status accorded to least developed states. The committee, headed by the then chief economic advisor Raghuram Rajan (now governor of RBI) was set up by the union government amidst demand for 'special category' status by Bihar. The committee suggested a new methodology for devolving funds on states based on a ‘multi dimensional index (MDI)’.


In a research note, Morgan Stanley Research said it expects BSE Sensex to touch 18,300 by year end. In worst case scenario (a 35% probability), it expects the Sensex to touch 15,700 by year end while there is a 15% probability of 30-share index touching 23,800 by year end, the report said.


RBI governor Raghuram Rajan has said that although the central bank has a neutral stance on interest rates for now, it is still worried about high inflation, even when taking out volatile food prices. He said that inflation is not due to just higher food prices. On Friday, renewed weakness in rupee brought the Sensex down.


Rupee depreciation could increase oil subsidy by 0.1% to 0.4% of GDP in FY14. The oil subsidy alone could push fiscal deficit in excess of 5.0% from 4.8% (budget estimates) in FY14, points out Fitch Ratings in its research note.


Among the other indices on the NSE, the top two gainers were Media (3%) and Pharma (1%) while the bottom two losers were PSU Bank (7%) and Bank (7%)


Among the Nifty-50 stocks, the top five gainers for the week were BHEL (6%); Sun Pharma (4%); Hero MotoCorp (3%); Sesa Sterlite (3%) and NMDC (2%) while the bottom five losers were DLF (13%); IDFC (10%); Jindal Steel & Power (10%); Bank of Baroda (9%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (9%).


Out of the 27 main sectors tracked by Moneylife, top five and the bottom five sectors were:


Top ML sector


Worst ML sector




Auto components












Oil & Gas




Financial Services




Weakness on the Sensex, Nifty persists: Friday closing report

Nifty is poised to break down. A close above 5,880 may change the trend

The opening of the session were the only few minutes when the market traded in the positive. It went below yesterday’s close immediately and was in the negative for the entire session. The Sensex opened at 19,952, while the Nifty opened at 5,906. The indices soon hit the day’s high of 19,982 and 5,909. After moving into the negative zone, each effort of recovering failed, and ultimately at the end of the session, the Sensex hit a low of 19,674 and closed at 19,727 (down 167 points or 0.84%), while the Nifty hit a low of 5,819 and closed at 5,833 (down 49 points or 0.83%).The National Stock Exchange (NSE) recorded a lower volume of 54.74 crore shares.


Except for FMCG (up 0.22%); Nifty Junior (up 0.18%); IT (up 0.11%) and Pharma (up 0.02%) all the other indices on the NSE ended in the negative. The top five losers were Bank Nifty (1.97%); Finance (1.70%); Infra (1.63%); PSU Bank (1.59%) and Metal (1.58%).


Of the 50 stocks on the Nifty, 12 ended in the green. The top five gainers were BPCL (6.03%); H C L Technologies (2.40%); Sun Pharma (1.62%); Coal India (1.20%) and Hero MotoCorp (1.05%). The top five losers were BHEL (5.61%); Jaiprakash Associates (5.59%); Tata Steel (4.52%); DLF (2.99%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (2.93%).


The positive news of US jobless claims unexpectedly falling was marred by the comments of the RBI governor. Raghuram Rajan on Thursday said that there is a danger of bubbles forming around the globe, due to easy money policy implemented to steer the world back into a more robust growth path. We seem to be in a situation where we are doomed to inflate bubbles elsewhere, Rajan said, adding he was not sure how effective a tool, low interest rates would be. He also said that inflation is not due just to higher food prices. Turning to cross-border capital flows, Rajan said that especially emerging markets were often the losers as flows turned around very quickly.


Ratings agency Fitch said non-performing loans at Indian banks are foreseen to peak as late as March 2016, compared with its earlier estimate of the middle of current fiscal year that started in April.


Barclays has lowered India's FY14 GDP forecast for the current fiscal to 4.7% (from 5.3% projected earlier), saying the growth and fiscal health of the country are likely to remain under pressure, with 2014 election dynamics adding to uncertainties.


Oil Minister M Veerappa Moily today hinted at a reduction in price of petrol in next few days, the first cut in rates in over five months. Petrol price was last cut on May 1 by Rs3 per litre, the steepest reduction in rates in over five years.


India's current account deficit, which hit a record high in the last fiscal year, is expected to rise in the June quarter from the previous three-month period before easing due to sharp fall in gold imports and improving exports. The data will be released on Monday.


US indices rose on Thursday. A Labour Department report showed the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, indicating further progress in the labor market. First-time claims for unemployment benefits in the US dropped by 5,000 to 305,000 last week. The economy expanded at faster pace in the second quarter from the previous three months, with gross domestic product rising at a 2.5% annualized rate, the Commerce Department said.


Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said on Thursday that the US central bank will face risks as it pursues its exit strategy from recent unconventional policies. Lacker is a non-voting member of the Fed's policy-making committee. Participating on a panel in Germany, Fed Gov. Jeremy Stein, a voting member, said the US central bank should develop a methodical approach to tapering by linking reduced asset purchases to the unemployment rate. In Houghton, Mich., Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, who votes next year, said the central bank should do "whatever it takes" to bolster the labour market.


Investors are also weighing whether lawmakers can avoid a looming government shutdown. House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican said he doesn't expect his chamber to pass a stopgap spending bill expected from the Senate. He also said he does not expect a government shutdown to happen.


Except for Nikkei 225 (down 0.26%) all the other Asian indices ended in the positive. Taiwan Weighted, top gainer, up 0.56%.


Japan's inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since 2008 in August on higher energy costs, underscoring pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to drive wage increases as he seeks to end 15 years of deflation. Consumer prices excluding fresh food increased 0.8% from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said.


European indices were trading in the negative and the US Futures were trading lower.


Rahul Gandhi: Ordinance on convicted lawmakers 'complete nonsense'

By making such a statement, Rahul Gandhi has made public the differences between the UPA government and Congress

Embarrassing the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, Rahul Gandhi has said the Ordinance on convicted lawmakers should be torn away.


Making a surprise entry into a press conference of Ajan Maken at Press Club in Delhi, the Congress vice president said, "It's complete nonsense. It should be torn up and thrown away."


Interestingly, Congress chief spokesperson Maken had defended the Ordinance minutes before Rahul Gandhi opposed it.


Gandhi said the government's argument is that it needs to do this for political considerations. "It's time to stop this. We cannot continue to make compromises," he said and added: "I personally feel that what the Government is doing is wrong."


The move is definitely an embarrassment to the Government, which was fiercely defending the Ordinance till the other day. The President himself was unhappy with the Ordinance.


Several Congress leaders, including Digvijay Singh, had opposed the Ordinance. By making such a statement, Rahul Gandhi made public the differences between the government and the Party.


Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has made it clear that it may hear the plea against the proposed Ordinance to protect convicted lawmakers from disqualification only after the law gets the nod from the President.


In response to the submission that the Presidential nod to the ordinance was merely a formality, a bench of Justices AK Patnaik and JS Kehar said, “Suppose the Ordinance is passed, we can still pass the stay order. You mention the matter on Monday, if it is cleared.”



Dayananda Kamath k

4 years ago

then does he consider the land bill a good bill which was brought at his insistance for doing heroism in supporting those agitators who attacked the police party to protect the kidnapped govt employees.if you have to pay 4times the market value for acquiring land who will acquire land unless he is insane. so they have blocked the land acquisition for development by this legislation. does he belive the food security bill is good one which is credited to his allow food grins to wrott and make a law to subsidise food articles whopping 40 times and crib over petrol susbsidy.oilfund which was created for this purpose by public by paying higher price for such a contignency was assurped by his father in his first budget to show lesser fiscal deficit. even one of the main reason for inflation was extending mnrega to all districts at his insistence. rs 80,000 crores were just pumped into the eonomy without any corresponding developmental activity. if corporates can take action for financial mismanagement then why not the cabinet for mismanaging the economy to serve the purposes of unconstitutional authorities.


4 years ago

His sudden appearance to address the media shows his immaturity. His father during his initial days as PM showed the same immaturity. We have seen many such antics from his late father (His foreign trips and diverting the aircraft on midair etc.,)

History repeats itself !


4 years ago

In fact Aadhar should be prohibited for any country related or national related or citizen related matter. Let it be just a private service to people at large, worldwide, as an identification system that is authenticated by the Unique Identification of India (World?). Let it just be a worldwide service for all people and let Aadhar guys make iot a for profit organization that can work toi contribute paise to the CAD problem that we have. Let it be a business. We in India can go back to what we had before - fraudproof because it is inefficient and distributed and flexible and human oriented and understandable and usable by the common man - better for all.


4 years ago

It must be a rare identification card, indeed, for a country, which can be obtained by foreigners and illegal aliens and further qualify for a host of benefits via direct transfer, that would be normally available to citizens below the poverty line! One can have hypocrisy, but this takes inefficiency to a new height. It looks as if the biggest follies of our country are embarked upon with minimum debate or none at all, on the basis of whim and fancy and the niceness of the people concerned. Then again, it is doing the work of the fraudster for him: agglomerating all identification data of a person at a single location. Now the fraudster only has to solve one set of problems. Wonderful - we are not far from anarchy.

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