Sensex, Nifty on a short downtrend

Nifty has to close above 6,270 for the uptrend to resume

The Sensex and the Nifty hit their record highs on Sunday, when a special trading session was held on account of Diwali Muhurat trading, to mark the beginning of the new Samavat Year 2070. On Tuesday, for the entire session, the indices traded below Sunday’s close. Both the indices gave up all the gains of the past three trading session in just one day.


Market today waited for the HSBC Markit Economics survey on the performance of India's services sector for October 2013. Indian services firms recovered slightly last month from the worst slump in over four years in September but activity still shrank and a shortage of new orders means a rebound looks some way off. The HSBC Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 47.1 in October from 44.6 in September, which was the weakest reading since April 2009. But the PMI still lingered below the 50 mark that divides growth and contraction, for the fourth consecutive month.


The market opened lower and in the early noon session they hit their respective high. After which the indices resumed the fall and the by the end of the session the hit their lows and closed barely off the lows. The Sensex opened at 21,134 and moved down to the level of 20,952 from the high of 21,159 and closed at 20,975 (down 265 or 1.25%). While the Nifty opened at 6,282 and hit a high of 6,305 from where it moved down to the level of 6,244 and closed at 6,253 (down 64 or 1.02%). The National Stock Exchange (NSE) recorded a volume of 79.44 crore shares.


Out of the 1,213 stocks on the NSE, 629 advanced, 539 fell while 45 remained unchanged.


Among the other indices on the NSE, the top gainers were Media (0.96%); Nifty Midcap 50 (0.92%); Smallcap (0.71%); Midcap (0.6%) and PSU Bank (0.42%). The top five losers were FMCG (2.61%); Pharma (1.84%); MNC (1.44%); IT (1.13%) and Consumption (1.01%).


Of the 50 stocks on the Nifty, 18 ended in the green. The top five gainers were BPCL (2.47%); NMDC (2.34%); DLF (2.10%); Asian Paints (2.02%) and Jaiprakash Associates (1.64%). While the top five losers were ITC (3.51%); ICICI Bank (3.29%); Power Grid (3.20%); Dr Reddy (3.03%) and Sun Pharma (2.81%).


Goldman Sachs upgrades its view on India to "marketweight", with a target for the Nifty of 6,900 points. The optimism is supported by the hope that the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, led by prime minister candidate Narendra Modi, could prevail in parliamentary elections due by May 2014. Goldman also notes that external capital account pressures have moderated for now, and cites signs of a cyclical pick-up and structural improvements in the economy.


US indices closed marginally in the positive on Monday. "Monetary policy is likely to need to remain accommodative for some time so that we can achieve full employment within a reasonable forecast horizon. The economy remains challenged," Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who votes on monetary policy this year, said in a speech in Boston on Monday, 4 November 2013. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker gives a speech on the labour market in Charlotte, North Carolina today, 5 November 2013. Earlier this month he said the probability of another recession is "bigger than we thought.


The US government will release non-farm payrolls figures for October 2013 on Friday, 8 November 2013. The job data is a key economic indicator that has been watched closely in recent months to see whether the US Federal Reserve will roll back its bond-buying program.


Asian indices had a mixed performance. NZSE 50 was the top gainer, up 0.57% while Taiwan Weighted was the top loser, down 1.10%.


China's leaders will meet in Beijing Nov. 9-12 to map out economic policies as the country heads for its slowest annual growth in more than two decades. Speculation are making round that meeting of China's top party officials this weekend may struggle to meet market expectations for economic reforms in the world's second biggest economy. Premier Li Keqiang said in speech published in full late on Monday that adding extra stimulus would be more difficult since printing new money would cause inflation.


European indices were trading in the red, the US Futures were also trading lower. UK retail sales rose only modestly in October, an industry group said Tuesday, raising doubts about the ability of consumers to support the economy at a time when Britons' incomes are falling in real terms. The British Retail Consortium said sales in shops that have been open at least a year rose 0.8% in October from the comparable month of 2012. That is only a very slight rebound from September, when growth stalled to 0.7% from 1.8% in August.


Passport Seva mobile app now on Windows, Apple phones

mPassport Seva mobile apps that provides a variety of services such as status tracking, locating a passport office and other general information is now available for Windows phones and Apple iPhones

Encouraged by the public response to its Passport Seva mobile app for Android phones, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has now launched the application for Windows and Apple iOS platforms. Earlier in March, the MEA had released Android version of the app, which provides passport-related information on smart phones.


This is an extended service of the Passport Seva Project, executed in the public-private-partnership mode with IT services major Tata Consultancy Services (TCS).


In a release, TCS said mPassport Seva provides a variety of services such as status tracking, locating a passport office and other general information.


The application provides information on the various steps involved in obtaining a passport-related service and related phone numbers in case of queries or concerns, it added.


Users will also be able to search for a Passport Seva Kendra (PSK) or District Passport Cell (DPC) in a district where a passport application can be submitted. This can also be searched based on a PIN code. For certain States and districts, users can search for police stations as well.


Citizens residing overseas, who apply for a passport service in Indian Missions/Posts abroad, can also utilise this facility for searching addresses and other relevant information.


The fee calculator feature of the app enables users to find out the applicable fee based on the service and mode of submission.


Users can track the status of their passport applications by providing the file number and date of birth. In case the passport has been dispatched, delivery status can also be tracked.


Inflation may spring a positive surprise: Private banks, better bets, says Nomura

Nomura says it prefer private banks as a play on a likely positive surprise in inflation and as a hedge against a potential temporary growth uptick

As rate-cyclical, private banks stand to benefit from any reassessment by the market regarding the probability of further monetary tightening, which itself will depend on incoming data. However, it is not a foregone conclusion that inflation will remain elevated, thereby forcing India to high-rate equilibrium. We consider private banks to be a good hedge against a potential temporary uptick in growth in the near-term, driven largely by consumption demand, says Nomura in a research note. 


Nomura said in its view, there is a reasonable chance that inflation might surprise positively in coming quarters. Food inflation, led by food grains and vegetables, is the common driver of both wholesale and retail inflation. It is primarily responsible for the currently high inflationary expectations in India. We think food inflation is close to its peak at current levels. Food grain prices are driven by price floors set by the government and the rate of growth of minimum support prices is lower this year for almost all crops, it added.

"This might well not necessarily translate into immediate rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), but any reprieve on inflation data will be positive for rate-cyclicals, especially for private banks that are not burdened with onerous asset quality issues as their public sector counterparts are," the report said.


However, Nomura said it remain cautious on domestic growth cyclical, which are geared to the industrial cycle (driven by capex) rather than to the agricultural cycle. It said, "Relative performance of banks has borne a reasonable correlation with growth—proxied by industrial production—up until 2012, when a global risk-on rally on the back of Fed’s QE3 and ECB’s OMT (outright monetary transactions) caused an across-the-board rally in risk assets even as domestic growth conditions remained weak".


We are listening!

Solve the equation and enter in the Captcha field.

To continue

Sign Up or Sign In


To continue

Sign Up or Sign In



The Scam
24 Year Of The Scam: The Perennial Bestseller, reads like a Thriller!
Moneylife Magazine
Fiercely independent and pro-consumer information on personal finance
Stockletters in 3 Flavours
Outstanding research that beats mutual funds year after year
MAS: Complete Online Financial Advisory
(Includes Moneylife Magazine and Lion Stockletter)