As long as the Nifty manages to keep itself above 6,250 on Tuesday, the upmove may continue. However, it would be a short rally that may stall soon
We speculated on Friday that the indices may be getting ready to put in a short rally. The BSE 30-share Sensex on Monday opened with the highest gap up since 19 December 2013 at 20,851 while the Nifty opened with the maximum gap up since 1 January 2014 at 6,190. The indices moved up quickly and then stayed in a range bound session all through and made a huge upsurge at the end, when the benchmarks hit their respective highs for the day and closed almost at the same level. The Sensex hit a high of 21,169 and closed at 21,134 (up 376 points or 1.81%). The Nifty hit a high of 6,288 and closed at 6,273 (up 101 points or 1.64%). The percentage gain on the Sensex has been the highest since 25 November 2013, while that of the Nifty is the highest since 20 December 2013. But the gain on the Nifty has been on a lower volume of 54.56 crore shares on the NSE.
Among the other indices on the NSE, the top five gainers were IT (2.84%); Service (2.13%); Finance (2.06%); Bank Nifty (2%) and Energy (1.87%) while the top five losers were Pharma (0.66%); MNC (0.44%); Midcap (0.18%); Nifty Junior (0.10%) and Metal (0.04%).
Of the 50 stocks on the Nifty, 37 ended in the green. The top five gainers were TCS (4.34%); HCL Technologies (3.99%); ICICI Bank (3.49%); Kotak Bank (3.35%) and DLF (3.26%). The top five losers were Ranbaxy (5.58%); Lupin (1.71%); Tata Power (1.56%); Sun Pharma (1.17%) and Jindal Steel (0.71%).
Of the 1,511 stocks on the NSE, 692 closed in the green, 741 closed in the red and 78 closed flat.
On Friday, against market expectations, the index of industrial production (IIP) fell for second consecutive month after 1.6% dip in October 2013. The sharp decline in the output of manufacturing sector by 3.5% mainly led to fall in IIP in November 2013. Meanwhile, the marginal 1% growth in mining sector output and healthy 6.3% growth in the electricity generation restricted further dip in industrial production during November 2013. The government will unveil consumer price index (CPI) of urban and rural India after trading hours today.
The government is maintaining fiscal discipline before the general elections, which is supporting the country's credit ratings, a Fitch Ratings analyst said on Monday. Fitch has rated India "BBB-minus" with a "stable" outlook.
US indices closed mostly in the green. A government report showed that US employment rose at the slowest pace in three years in December. The 74,000 gain in payrolls was the weakest since January 2011, Labor Department figures showed in Washington.
Global regulators strived to raise confidence levels of financial markets, especially the banking sector, after it approved of a measure to change leverage ratio. Changes to the leverage rule give lenders more scope to use an accounting practice known as netting to calculate the ratio, and ease proposals on how lenders determine the size of their off-balance sheet activities.
Except for Shanghai Composite (down 0.19%) and Straits Times (down 0.27%) all the other trading Asian indices closed in the green. Jakarta Composite was the top gainer which rose 3.19%.
European indices were trading flat mostly in the positive while US Futures were trading in the negative.
As per the draft regulations issued by SEBI, it had been proposed that only 'Category-III,' or high-risk foreign investors, would be barred from issuing P-Notes
Tightening norms for issue of participatory notes (P-Notes) by overseas investors, market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has barred unregulated foreign funds from dealing in offshore derivative instruments even if their investment managers are appropriately regulated by their concerned regulators.
The guidelines, which are part of the newly notified foreign portfolio investor (FPI) regulations, have come into force with immediate effect. They provide for stricter oversight of P-notes, the preferred route for overseas high net worth individuals (HNIs) and hedge funds for investing in the Indian market.
Earlier, according to the draft regulations by the SEBI, it had been proposed that only 'Category-III,' or high-risk foreign investors, would be barred from issuing P-Notes.
However, the gazette notification that brought the FPI guidelines into force also prohibits certain entities under 'Category-II,' or medium-risk investors, from issuing P-Notes.
"Provided that those unregulated broad-based funds, which are classified as Category-II foreign portfolio investor by virtue of their investment manager being appropriately regulated, shall not issue, subscribe or otherwise deal in offshore derivatives instruments directly or indirectly," Sebi has said in its final FPI regulations.
P-Notes, or offshore derivative instruments, are mostly used by overseas HNIs, hedge funds and other foreign institutions to invest in Indian markets through registered foreign institutional investors (FIIs), while saving on time and costs associated with direct registrations.
The new FPI regime has classified foreign investors into three groups based on their risk profile and would eventually replace existing categories such as FIIs, their sub-accounts and qualified foreign investors.
Category-I FPIs, entities with the lowest risk, would include foreign governments and government-related foreign investors.
Category-II FPIs would include appropriately regulated broad-based funds, university funds, university-related endowments and pension funds, among others.
Category-III FPIs would include all others not eligible under the first two categories.
In this two part series, we take a look at technical and legal issues related to virtual currencies, especially Bitcoins. This is the first part on technical aspects of Bitcoins
Before we go into a discussion of Bitcoins, it is important to understand what digital cash is.
What is digital cash?
Digital cash aims to duplicate the functionality of paper cash, by providing it with properties of anonymity and transferability of payment. Digital cash is intended to be implemented data which can be copied, stored, or given as payment (for example, attached to an email message, or via a USB stick, Bluetooth, etc). Just like paper currency and coins, digital cash is intended to represent value because it is backed by a trusted third party (namely, the government and the banking industry). Most money is already paid in electronic form; for example, by credit or debit card, and by direct transfer between accounts, or by on-line services such as PayPal.
Ideal properties of digital cash
Secure: Person ‘A’ should be able to pass digital cash to person ‘B’ without either of them, or others, being able to alter or reproduce the electronic token.
Anonymous: Person ‘A’ should be able to pay Person ‘B’ without both revealing their identities.
Portable: The security and use of the digital cash is not dependent on any physical location. The cash should be able to be stored on disk or USB memory stick, sent by email or SMS. Digital cash should not be restricted to a single, proprietary computer network.
Off-line capable: The protocol between the two exchanging parties is executed off-line, meaning that neither is required to be host-connected in order to proceed. Person ‘A’ can freely pass value to person ‘B’ at any time of day without requiring third-party authentication.
These are the ideal properties, and no known system satisfies them all. It is important to note here that Paypal is not "digital cash", because it doesn't attempt to provide properties similar to cash (anonymity, off-line usage). Instead, it aims to replace credit cards, and is much more secure. In contrast with credit cards, Paypal payees do not have to have merchant status.
What is Bitcoin and how the technology works?
In the language of computer programmers, Bitcoin is a digital currency that is created and exchanged independently of any government or bank. Bitcoin is generated through a computer program and can be converted into cash after being deposited into virtual Bitcoin-wallets, which is created when one downloads a Bitcoin open-source program. When one runs the open source client, it connects to the Internet and links the user to a decentralized peer-to-peer network of all bitcoin users. The user has to create a Bitcoin wallet in order to start doing business with bitcoins, much like an online account or e-cart. The program generates a pair of keys, a public and a private key, which is used while sending and receiving bitcoins over the network. The private key is always hidden. The public key is like an address to identify the key holder. Each Bitcoin address has its own Bitcoin balance. Every time a transaction is made, the public address of each user is made public to the entire network. The process of generating Bitcoins is through a complex algorithm which mines a unique number representing a bitcoin. The algorithm can be assumed to be a worker in a gold mine who is searching for a slab of gold. In this case, the algorithm is searching for an available bitcoin. The upper limit to the number of bitcoins is about 21 million. Bitcoins are used for electronic purchases and transfers. One can use bitcoins to pay other people. Each and every transaction is logged digitally on a transaction log that tracks the time of purchase and who owns how many bitcoins. This ensures that a bitcoin cannot be duplicated. This digital transaction log is called 'block chain'. The block chain records every single transaction and the ownership of every single bitcoin in circulation. Making payments with bitcoins is easier than using credit cards. If one has a wallet, one only has to enter the recipient's address, the amount of bitcoins to be sent, and click OK. The recipient will then simply receive the request for bitcoins in exchange for what he is offering (goods, services, or currency).
How it is different from ordinary e-cash?
Bitcoin has a completely distributed architecture, without any single trusted entity. Bitcoin assumes that the majority of nodes in its network are honest. In contrast, most e-cash schemes require a centralised bank who is trusted for purposes of e-cash issuance, and double-spending detection. This greatly appeals to individuals who wish for a freely-traded currency not in control by any governments, banks, or authorities—from libertarians to drug-dealers and other underground economy proponents (note that apart from the aforementioned illegal usages, there are numerous legitimate uses as well, which will be mentioned later). In a spirit similar to the original motivation for a distributed Internet, such a purely decentralised system guarantees that no single entity, no matter how initially benevolent, can succumb to the temptation or be coerced by a government into subverting it for its own benefit.
How to trade Bitcoins?
Exchanges provide a place for people to trade bitcoins for other types of currency. Payments to a merchant who accepts Bitcoins are made from the bitcoin wallet by entering the recipient's address and the payment amount.
What gives a Bitcoin its value?
This is the most contentious of all questions. In the first year of bitcoin, there were almost no transactions, but people were spending their energy on generating bitcoins. This is possibly because bitcoins have:
1. Value as a collectible, in a similar manner to people collecting rare metals, stones, shells, postal stamps, paintings and baseball cards.
2. Value from betting that other people may find these collectibles valuable and thus would have to buy some of them from earlier collectors, thus making them richer.
Gold is valuable because it’s rare, durable and mobile, and thus can be collected. And once collected, it can only increase in value when more people want it. In case of bitcoins, the value can appreciate or depreciate in the expectation of investors, buyers, sellers and speculators that bitcoins is a “thing of the future”. One must not be under the impression that the peer-to-peer network is responsible for any single price that people put on bitcoin. There’s clearly no rational way to tell how much money bitcoin “should be worth” today or tomorrow. Pure demand and supply for bitcoins is what determines its price. There may be no demand and hence the bitcoin can become junk. Additionally, frequency of transactions is independent from the total value of the supply. The value of a bitcoin is constantly changing, and there is no centralised exchange for it. Thus each time a bitcoin changes ownership, the two parties need to agree on its price. There is no fixed price. Also the difference between bitcoins and other currencies is that there is no centralised bank that prints the currency and sets relative values.
(Shambo Dey, a student of Government Law College, Mumbai, works as a Research Assistant at Vinod Kothari & Company)