If the Nifty closes above 5,550, it will attempt a short rally. A weekly close above 5,635 is needed for a longer rally to unfold
The market closed in the negative for the second week in a row on not-so-impressive economic indicators which raised concerns of the pace of growth and weak quarterly numbers from IT major Infosys. Investors were worried that the dismal showing by Infosys would impact other IT majors, which are expected to announce their fourth quarter numbers next week. Headline inflation numbers, due on Monday, and quarterly results from corporates would be the focus for the next week.
The BSE Sensex finished the week 208 points (1.13%) down at 18,243 and the Nifty settled 25 points (0.44%) lower at 5,529. The market may try to bounce back. If the Nifty closes above 5,550, it will attempt a short rally. A weekly close above 5,635 is needed for a longer rally to unfold.
Continuing its decline from the previous week, the market settled marginally lower on Monday on concerns about the economy. The market pared early gains and settled around 1% lower on Tuesday on a sell-off by foreign institutional investors. Gains in technology, banking and capital goods stocks helped the benchmarks close higher on Wednesday.
Support from the global markets saw the domestic indices closing higher on Thursday. The market closed lower on Friday on a sell-off in IT and technology shares following a weak showing by Infosys and on weak economic indicators.
BSE Bankex (up 3%) and BSE Auto (up 2%) were the top sectoral gainers while BSE IT (down 10%) and BSE TECk (down 8%) were the biggest losers in the week.
Tata Motors (up 8%), Cipla, ICICI Bank (up 5% each), HDFC Bank (up 4%) and Hindalco Industries (up 2%) were the key gainers on the Sensex. The losers were led by Infosys (down 20%), Wipro (down 16%), Tata Steel, Coal India (down 3% each) and Jindal Steel & Power (down 2%).
The top performers on the Nifty were Jaiprakash Associates (up 10%), Tata Motors (up 8%), Ambuja Cements, Lupin (up 7% each) and DLF (up 6%). The main losers on the index were Infosys (down 20%), Tata Steel, Coal India (down 3% each), JSPL and Asian Paints (down 2% each).
India’s industrial growth slipped to 0.6% in February 2013 mainly on account of contraction in power generation and mining output and poor performance of manufacturing sector. Factory output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), had grown by 4.3% in February last year.
Retail inflation declined to 10.39% in March, snapping a five-month rising trend, on the back of a fall in prices of vegetables and protein-based items. It, however, continued to remain in double digit terrain for the fourth consecutive month in March. Retail inflation in urban areas declined to 10.38% in March while CPI for the rural population fell to 10.33% during the month.
IT services major Infosys tumbled over 20% on Friday after the company forecast a tepid 6% to 10% growth in revenue in both rupee terms and dollar terms for the year ending 31 March 2014. The revenue guidance is lower than industry body Nasscom's projection of 12% to 14% growth in IT exports in the current fiscal year.
On the global front, Eurozone finance ministers, at a meeting held in Dublin on Friday, finalised a 10 billion euro bailout for Cyprus. The package consists of 9 billion euros from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and 1 billion euros from the International Monetary Fund. Cyprus is the first bailout to be dealt with exclusively by the ESM, the EU's permanent bailout fund.
A seven-year-old girl in Beijing has been infected with H7N9 bird flu, the state-run news agency Xinhua reported Saturday, the first confirmed case in the Chinese capital. Until the announcement all 43 previous human cases of the H7N9 outbreak, 11 of which had been fatal, had been confined to eastern China.
After the “preliminary hearing” today, the Securities and Appellate Tribunal posted the matter to 20th April as the counsel for Sahara Group sought adjournment due to medical reasons
The Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) today adjourned to 20th April its hearing on Subrata Roy's plea against market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India’s (SEBI) attachment order of his bank accounts and other assets, along with those of two group firms and their top executives.
After taking up the petition for its “preliminary hearing”, the SAT posted the matter to 20th April as the counsel for Sahara Group sought adjournment due to medical reasons.
The matter relates to the case involving a refund of over Rs24,000 crore raised through “various illegalities” by two Sahara companies.
Four petitions have been filed against SEBI, namely by Sahara chief Subrata Roy himself, Sahara Housing Investment Corp (SHICL), Sahara India Real Estate Corp (SIRECL), and Ashok Roy Chaudhary and others.
The petitions have challenged SEBI's 13th February order attaching bank accounts, investments and other assets of the two companies and their four top executives, including Roy, to eventually sell them for recovering required funds for the investor refund as per a Supreme Court order.
Roy had first approached SAT against SEBI's attachment orders in February, followed by pleas filed by other entities.
The Tribunal last heard the matter on 26th March, when it decided to proceed further on all the petitions together.
Incidentally, SEBI passed another order in this case on 26th March, hours after SAT's last hearing of Sahara plea.
In its 26th March order, SEBI summoned Roy and three other top executives for personal appearance on 10th April after submitting details of their personal and company assets to ascertain terms for the sale of those assets.
Roy and others appeared before SEBI's whole-time member Prashant Saran at the market regulator's headquarters on 10th April, wherein they were asked about their asset details.
As per a Supreme Court order, SEBI has been asked to facilitate the refund of more than Rs24,000 crore to over three crore bondholders after verifying their genuineness.
After expiry of the court-set deadline for the refund, SEBI had issued attachment orders.
Sahara has questioned SEBI's action for attaching Roy's property, saying that neither he was issued a show-cause notice nor did SEBI follow procedure of securing an enabling order from a judicial magistrate.
In 5 out of 8 quarters, analysts have been horribly wrong about Infosys’ results, leading to a huge gap-down opening including today. What a huge fall for a company that once declared that "under-promise and over-deliver" was its strategy
Infosys shares fell by over 21% from Rs2,917 to Rs2,295 today, the biggest decline in 10 years. Infosys has forecast dollar revenue to grow between 6% and 10% for the fiscal year that began this month which was less than analysts' estimates for revenue growth of as much as 12%. This seemed like a nasty surprise to the market. But was it really a surprise? Let’s see what the analysts have been expecting Infosys to do and what it has actually done over the last eight quarters, including the just-concluded quarter.
Instance2: Q3FY13 – When the third quarter results were out on 11 January 2013 the stock jumped by nearly 17% from Rs2,320 to Rs2,712. Infosys’ net profit at Rs2,369 crore in the December quarter was flat against the September quarter, but much better than the average estimate of analysts. Revenues of Infosys had risen 12% in the quarter to Rs10,424 crore compared to a year earlier. That was better than analyst estimates of Rs9,860 crore. This was a rare instance of Infosys surprising the market positively.
Instance3: Q2FY13 – On 12 October 2012 when the second quarter results of Infosys were announced the stock price fell by 5% from Rs2,531 to Rs2,396. The fall was not much as the results were largely ‘in-line’ with the street estimates, though the IT major lowered its revenue growth guidance.
Instance4: Q1FY13 – Here again, the performance of Infosys was far below street estimates, the stock plummeted 8% from Rs2,466 to Rs2,265. The company cut its sales forecast to 5%, much lower than the 8%-10% it had predicted. The company had forecast FY13 earnings per share (EPS) at Rs166.50, which was lower than estimates. Kotak Institutional Equities summed up the disappointing results announcement of Infosys as "From bad to worse". Analysts on average were expecting Infosys to report a net profit of Rs2,448 crore on revenue of Rs9,665 crore. however, the IT giant could manage a net profit of Rs2,289 crore with revenue of Rs9,616 crore.
Instance5: Q4FY12 – The share price slumped by 13% from Rs2,750 to Rs2,403. Not only did its fourth quarter sales trail estimates, its sales forecast too missed analyst estimates. Its revenue guidance at the time came as a shocker to analysts who then downgraded the stock. Infosys announced a dollar revenue guidance of 8%-10%, which was much lower than industry body Nasscom’s estimate of 11%-14% for the industry.
Instance6: Q3FY12 – Though the 33% rise in profit for the quarter beat analyst estimates, its revenue guidance disappointed. The stock price fell by 8% from Rs2,826 to Rs2,589. The compa ny had forecast dollar revenue growth of 16.4% for the fiscal year to 31st March, down from 17%-19% projected in October 2011. Based on consensus estimates, the firm was expected to cut its dollar revenue target for the March quarter by 1%-2% compared with what it had estimated three months ago. Instead, it has cut its fourth quarter target by as much as 3%-7%.
Instance7: Q2FY12 – A rare instance, when the shares rose around 7% from Rs2,509 to Rs2,680 after it announced earnings for the second quarter of FY12. The company had cut its fiscal year 2011-12 (FY12) dollar revenue target by only 1%, on account of unfavourable cross currency movements. Analysts were enthused about the fact that the firm had kept its volume growth assumptions intact, despite the increased uncertainty in the global economy.
Instance8: Q1FY12 – Infosys revenues missed estimates and the share price fell by 4% from Rs2,919 to Rs2,794 and continued to head lower, even though net income increased 16% over the quarter which was in line with the median analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg. This was just the beginning of the company’s woes. Wage inflation pulled down the net profit, on a sequential basis, by 5.3% to Rs1,722 crore while revenues grew 3.2% to Rs7,485 crore.
As all these cases show, analysts have been consistently way off the mark in estimating Infosys's results despite continuous interaction with the management. But this stunning saga not only shows the qualtity of analysts but also shows how things have changed at Infosys. There was a time when Infosys set the standards on corporate reporting in India. It was the first company to start reporting quarterly results much before it became mandatory. Also, for years, Infosys surprised the market with its conservative guidance and superlative actual results. It believed, in the words of founder NR Narayana Murthy, in the principle of under-promise and over-deliver. It is now the possibly the reverse: promise to naive analysts and under-deliver.