Sensex, Nifty may attempt to rally: Weekly closing report

Any market rally will be met by selling. The mood is bleak

With the second consecutive week of fall on the bourses, the Sensex and the Nifty hit their lowest level since 27 June 2013. On all trading days the benchmark indices closed in the negative. This is the eight consecutive fall for both Sensex and Nifty till Friday.


The Sensex lost 584 points (2.96%) to close the week at 19,164 and the Nifty settled at 5,678, down 208 points (3.54%).


On Monday, the benchmark continued the fourth day of decline, ahead of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announcing its policy review on Tuesday, where analysts felt that there will not be any revision in key interest rates. On Tuesday, the RBI, as expected kept rates unchanged and reiterated that the recent measures to tighten liquidity would be rolled back in a calibrated manner as stability is restored in the forex market. Although this move was expected, stocks continued to fall. Even on Wednesday, the market remained negative, ahead of an announcement from the US Federal Reserve about the future of its stimulus programme.          


On Thursday, the market again ended in the red, even as the Federal Reserve, after a two-day policy meeting, maintained its bond-buying program at current levels. The market was hit hard on that day by a 62% crash in Financial Technologies Ltd (FT) and Multi Commodity Exchange Of India Ltd (MCX) that tanked 20% hitting its lower circuit at Rs512.05. FT-promoted National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL) announced a suspension of trading and merging of settlement cycles of all one-day forward contracts, except e-series following an order from the Department of Consumer Affairs (DCA). There were fears that NSEL will end up defaulting on its obligations.


Even the easing of the FDI rules by the government for multi-brand retail did not help the indices to gain any strength and ended in the negative for the eighth consecutive trading session on Friday.


BSE Information Technology (up 4%) and BSE Consumer Durables (up 3%) were the top sectoral gainers in the week while BSE Realty Index (down 15%) and BSE Power (down 10%) were the top losers.


The top gainers on the 30-share Sensex were Wipro (15%), TCS (4%), Infosys (3%) and Bharti Airtel (2%), while Coal India (10%), I T C (10%), ONGC (9%), Hindalco Inds (8%) and NTPC (8%) were the major losers.


This week the RBI clarified that foreign institutional investors (FII) who have issued participatory notes (P-notes) can only hedge their currency risk if they receive a specific mandate from their clients. This move is likely to further curb speculation, making sure all P-note related derivative trades are done for genuine customer needs.


How to file RTI application effectively

The 175th seminar of Moneylife Foundation focussed on understanding the key provisions of the RTI Act. Shailesh Gandhi, the former Central Information Commissioner, explained important dos and don’ts and how one can file effective application to ensure all the queries are answered

Moneylife Foundation has conducted a series of events and workshops in the past to empower its members to use the RTI (Right to Information) Act effectively. This was another session for beginners of the RTI series conducted by Shailesh Gandhi, former Central Information Commissioner (CIC). The session for beginners has received huge participation in the past and Saturday’s session as well had over 70 members.


In this seminar for beginners, Mr Gandhi gave an overview of the RTI Act, how it originated and where it can be used. He took the members through the important sections of the RTI Act in detail. The former CIC also covered various sections of the RTI Act where information can be sought and can be refused. He also explained the RTI application format and the format for filing an appeal.


For RTI users, the important part to remember while filing an application is that the information sought should not be vague and a reasonable timeline should be given. The applicant also should remember that the information she is seeking should be available on record.


Mr Gandhi emphasised that all information that is available as a record in any tangible form can be provided. Therefore, before filing an application, individuals should review if the information they are seeking is available as a record.


The application should be addressed to the right department, he added. If not done, it would create unnecessary delays. The RTI should be sent preferably through Speed Post, as you would get an acknowledgement that the public information officer (PIO) has received it.


The RTI Act lists special instances where the authorities can seek exemption from disclosing the information. Usually, Section 8 of the Act is commonly used by public authorities for claiming exemption from disclosure of information. Mr Gandhi explained this section in detail and offered advice on how one can phrase their queries in such a way that the information cannot be denied claiming exemption under Section 8.


Many times, the PIOs use Section 8(1)(e) for denying the information.  Section 8 (1)(e) of the RTI Act exempts from disclosure 'information available to a person in his fiduciary relationship, unless the competent authority is satisfied that the larger public interest warrants the disclosure of such information'.


Mr Gandhi said, "An equally important characteristic for the relationship to qualify as a fiduciary relationship is that the provider of information gives the information for using it for the benefit of the one who is providing the information. All relationships usually have an element of trust, but all of them cannot be classified as fiduciary. Information provided in discharge of a statutory requirement, or to obtain a job, or to get a license, cannot be considered to have been given in a fiduciary relationship."


In addition, information provided by an individual in fulfilment of statutory requirements is neither covered by the exemption under Section 8 (1)(j) of the RTI Act nor can it be called an unwarranted invasion of his privacy, the former CIC said.


While seeking information related with third party, the PIOs often cite exemption. As per Section 11 of the RTI Act, the PIO, as per the case, should give a written notice to the third party and invite the third party to make a submission regarding whether the information should be disclosed or not. There are several instances, where the PIOs have denied information citing objection from the third party.


However, Mr Gandhi said, Section 11 does not give a third party an unrestrained veto to refuse disclosing information. It only gives the third party an opportunity to voice its objections to disclosing information. "Section 11 is only a procedure which requires the PIO to inform the third party of his intention to disclose the information if the information was received in confidence. After receiving any objection from the third party if the information is exempt as per the provisions of Section 8(1) or 9 the information may be denied by the PIO after giving reasons," he said.


The former CIC also explained to the audience the relevant section on complaints and second appeals and how one should go about it.


We have also compiled a list of important judgements in cases where the information sought has been wrongly refused. Read here.




4 years ago

It was indeed most excellent session. Hard subject was explained very nicely by SIR GANDHI SHAILESH. power point presentation by him on monely life site if uploaded, will be very useful in future. His expirience as Information Commissioner gives waightage for his knowledge and sharing.
many people should attend such events.
Moneylife team deservs compliments.


4 years ago

I attended your seminar on RTI conducted by Mr.S.Gandhi & the same was quite informative.
However I would like to know why there is no provision in the RTI Act to file the application anonymously as there are many instances of applicants being threatened & even killed in few cases.

Fear and loathing in Risk Street

Gold prices have fallen. Bond prices have tanked. And now equities are sliding downwards with no end in sight. All those who wanted returns from market-linked products are running scared

The prevailing mood among Indian savers who want to take a bit of a higher risk for higher returns is bleak. All major asset classes are taking a beating and falling over like dominoes over the last few months. First, it was gold, which crashed in April. Then, bond prices got squeezed in June and July. And now, it is the turn of equities to cause heartburn to Indian savers. In the midst of all this, the rupee has pummeled, causing worries to importers, investors and policy makers alike. All those who looked to invest risky assets for higher return have been suffering one setback after another. The mood is truly despondent.

First, it was gold prices, which crashed in April. The average monthly price of gold was Rs30,520/10 gms in January which crashed to Rs26,768/10 gms by the end of May. During this period, panic ensued and a lot of investors started to take money out of gold and put it into bonds, which seemed the asset to buy because “everybody” expected the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to reduce interest rates. Meanwhile, the equity markets rose as RBI cut interest rates twice, once in March and once in May, from 7.75% to 7.25%.

In the beginning of the year, the sentiment was bullish after RBI cut interest rates, in January, to boost spending. This happened after the central bank was “satisfied” that inflation levels had moderated and time was ripe for growth. The Sensex reacted briefly, and moved up from 19,714 and punctured 20,000. At the same time, prior to the budget in February, the finance minister P Chidambaram, went shopping abroad to placate foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who were worried that no reform measures were undertaken. The markets started tanking in anticipation of a populist budget (rather than one with “reforms”). The budget turned out to be a total dampener. FIIs started withdrawing money in droves (Having believed in the FM’s promises, foreign brokers suffer a rude awakening) and this took the market to new yearly low, when Sensex touched 18,144 in mid-April.


Then, in late May, the US Federal Reserve announced that it would “taper” bond purchases (i.e. wind down its quantitative easing program). (Check out our article 'Quantitative easing myths debunked'). This sent not just the equity markets into a tailspin, but also emerging market currencies, particularly Brazil’s Real and Indian rupee. Riots ensued in Brazil while Indian policy makers were in a tizzy. The rupee depreciated from Rs54 levels and breached Rs60 levels. This caused RBI to panic and introduce a host of measures to stem the rupee decline, particularly tightening liquidity on banks, and kept interest rates the same. Investors, who had moved into bonds, suffered a massive blow. Bond prices fell. Food inflation returned to haunt the RBI.

Meanwhile, thanks to the rupee, price of gold, in rupee terms, became dearer. Concerns about fiscal deficit and current account deficit resurfaced. And rating agencies were concerned about India’s fiscal position. This caused short term bond yields to shoot up. Investors were worried about the government’s ability to service its debt, especially after the Cabinet approval of the controversial Food Security Bill which will dent long term fiscal deficit.

Equities are back to the levels seen after P Chidamambaram became the finance minister again last year.


The above graph shows the volatility in equity market this year. Gold, bonds, equities… all have disappointed investors so far this year. Many investors are uncertain about the direction of any of the markets. The fear is well and alive on risk street.


Check out our cover story: Turbulence ahead for equity, bonds and gold!



Sandeep Consul

4 years ago

Financial Journals always miss out an important point in their articles - the complacency in the Indian Mutual Fund Managers because of the benchmarking concept. Lest see the following situation - if you have to build a portfolio of a diversified or a sectoral fund -

Would you ever put 45% of your funds in a single stock, however good that stock may be ???? - not even by a long shot from whatever you have been writing over last many years.

Lets consider an example - In India we have two FMCG funds from ICICI and SBI. If you look at their portfolio you will find that both of them have about 45% investment in ITC..... isn't it totally against whatever you have learnt and have been telling readers for years? Doesn't it throw all the principles of Portfolio Management for a toss ? Then why do these funds have 45% exposure to ITC.
As Jeremy Grantham said "the primary directive, first and last, is to keep your job. To do this, he explained, you must never, ever be wrong on your own."

So how do fund managers do it -the fund manager very conveniently has a benchmark against whom he can compare himself. To retain his job he must not underperform the benchmark even in the worst case scenario by a huge margin. In the best case scenario he hopes to outperform the benchmark little bit by slight tinkering in the portfolio to earn his bonus.

So if SBI's FMCG fund’s benchmark BSE FMCG index has appx 50% weightage in ITC, SBI FMCG fund has about 45% of its investment in ITC, even though its totally against what every fund manager/analyst/investment guru learnt and preached throughout his life.

The idea at the back of any fund managers mind is NEVER about giving good absolute returns to their investors - as a retail investor naively assumes, reading all the good articles about -long term benefits of investing and investing thru mutual funds - where one of the biggest benefit is always proclaimed to be DIVERSIFICATION (as a retial investor can not diversify in to many stocks with limited funds). The primary goal of the fund manager is saving his job and for that he has to clone the index.

Simillar thing is carried out in a Diversified Mutual Fund, like a Large cap or Flexi cap fund, but on a more sophisticated level which a retail investor can't figure out (based on the Beta of the the benchmark index etc etc, more on that some other time).
Do you think fund managers are doing a great job, if over five years they beat a benchmark, in which Stock are included at four digit prices and excluded at two digit prices, by a couple of percentage points???

The dark reality is that Financial websites and Journals avoid writing about it because they are part of the system, they are dependent on Mutual Funds for Ad Revenue hence they will write about everything from SEBI's inefficiency to misselling by distributors to financial illiteracy of investors but not about the rot in the fund management.

Dr Anantha K Ramdas

4 years ago

Sorry, there is an error ...

the word "NOT" is missing in the sentence:

"NOT a governmentment
with a number of parties
forming a coalitiion"

All because the major party will be at the mercy of the smaller ones in the coalition
and will be forced to dance once in a while...

Dr Anantha K Ramdas

4 years ago

I think that this market for equities will be going up and down (yo-yo style) every week and will return to normalcy once the elections are over.

Even then, the situation will become stabilized when there is a majority rule and a government with a number of parties forming a coalition.

The Rupee can be stable only when we learn to control imports of cheap electronic goods from China; stop reckless imports of gold and push up our

export or perish - which is what Jawaharal Nehru called for years ago - this is imperative now.

Vinayak Bhimarao Mudholkar

4 years ago

When one earns enough returns only when one sells it at a higher price then it is speculation. By this definition almost all equity investors are speculators. The so called fundamentally strong stocks are either too costly &/or dubious. The single most effective point is Buy on Foot-path ie. Ek pe char free!....India is just investment grade & ironically the so called AAA+ foreigners are dancing to the tune of so called "economic reforms (!!!)"....It is nothing but "MAYSABHA IN MAHABHARATA"


4 years ago

Those who can't withstand volatility must invest in fixed deposits.

And those who target market linked returns must learn to withstand volatility. For this too shall pass.


Vinayak Bhimarao Mudholkar

In Reply to Nilesh KAMERKAR 4 years ago

I am a fan of Moneylife & I like your comments too !

Vinayak Bhimarao Mudholkar

In Reply to Nilesh KAMERKAR 4 years ago

Dear Nilesh Sir,
Is their any blog of yours?


In Reply to Vinayak Bhimarao Mudholkar 4 years ago

No sir, I don't have a blog.

Santosh Kanekar

4 years ago

1. Gold prices have gone up now to almost 29k levels, the same levels from where the crash started

2. Retail investor has been smart by staying away from Equity and Bonds and invested in FDs

3. Mainstream media has a big role in bending the reality. The myth that one should buy on dips is propagated incessantly. When bond yield started going up on May 22 (gradually) and FIIs started pulling out, no one cautioned the retail investor to bail out. Even now media is asking everyone to stay invested in Debt funds when MTM losses have already touched 4-6% of capital value.

Retail investors always worried about Return OF Capital and and not Return ON Capital and this is the right focus


4 years ago


I just want to submit that Nifty/Sensex are misleading. Market has gone down heavily but is not reflected. The simple reason for this is top 10 heavy weights are not allowing Index/Nifty to fall.e.g.CNX PSU Bank's index is down more than 59% in one year from top but Nifty is 6%
higher in one year.

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