Sensex, Nifty in no man’s land: Thursday Closing Report

Global cues may help the market find further direction

The market closed in the green on global cues as the world awaits an announcement from the ECB which would help the debt-stricken states deal with increasing borrowing costs. Yesterday we had mentioned that a higher high on the Nifty would change the trend. Today the benchmark breached yesterday’s high but settled below it. The Nifty moved almost in the same range as yesterday. The index has to sustain itself above the low of 5,216 of the current decline which begun on 24 August 2012 for further direction. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) saw a volume of 49.10 crore shares and a advance decline ratio of 881:777.


The market opened almost unchanged from its previous close as investors were jittery ahead of the crucial European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, later in the day. The continued disruption of parliament proceedings, which threatens to washout the entire Monsoon Session, also dampened sentiments. Among the global markets, US indices closed flat with a mixed bias overnight while the Asian pack was up in morning trade on speculations that the ECB meet will announce fresh a bond-buying plan.


Back home, the Nifty opened eight points lower at 5,218 while the Sensex added eight points to its previous close to resume trade at 17,321. The opening figure on the Nifty was its intraday low while the Sensex dipped to its low at around 10.40am. At this point the benchmark touched 17,295.


However, the market hovered on both sided of its previous close till noon in the absence of any fresh cues. Support from the European markets, which opened in the green, helped the domestic enter into the positive in noon trade.


Export-oriented sectors like technology and auto witnessed buying interest in anticipation of a favourable announcement from the ECB. The gains helped the market hit the day’s high in the last hour. The Nifty rose to 5,260 and the Sensex went up to 17,418 at their highs.


However, the market pared some of its gains in the last leg of trade, but settled in the green with minor gains. The Nifty closed 13 points higher at 5,238 and the Sensex rose 33 points to 17,346.


The broader indices outperformed the Sensex today, as the BSE Mid-cap index closed 0.31% higher and the BSE Small-cap index rose 0.24%.


The top sectoral gainers were BSE IT (up 2.55%); BSE TECk (up 1.85%): BSE Auto (up 0.73%); BSE Healthcare (up 0.59%) and BSE Bankex (up 0.52%). The losers were BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (down 1.76%); BSE Consumer Durables (down 0.86%); BSE Capital Goods (down 0.76%); BSE Realty (down 0.04% and BSE Oil & Gas (down 0.01%).


Of the 30 shares in the Sensex list, 17 stocks settled in the positive. The key gainers were Wipro (up 4.43%); Infosys (up 3.58%); Jindal Steel (up 1.98%); Tata Motors (up 1.90%) and ICICI Bank (up 1.86%). The losers were led by BHEL (down 3.20%); ITC (down 2.69%); Bharti Airtel (down 2.09%); Hindustan Unilever (down 0.98%) and HDFC Bank (down 0.91%).


The top two A Group gainers on the BSE were—Torrent Power (up 9.86%) and Ambuja Cements (up 4.55%).

The top two A Group losers on the BSE were—Gujarat State Petronet (down 4.48%) and BHEL (down 3.20%).


The top two B Group gainers on the BSE were—IOL Chemicals (up 19.90%) and Finotex Chemical (up 19.82%).

The top two B Group losers on the BSE were—ATN International (down 14.75%) and Kaweri Telecom (down 14.65%).


Out of the 50 stocks listed on the Nifty, 29 stocks settled in the positive. The main gainers were Wipro (up 4.67%); Ambuja Cements (up 4.66%); Infosys (up 3.54%); ACC (up 2.61%) and Jindal Steel (up 2.49%). BHEL (down 3.06%); ITC (down 2.63%); Bharti Airtel (down 2.62%); Ranbaxy Laboratories (down 1.45%) and IDFC (down 1.43%) settled at the bottom of the index.


Markets in Asia closed mostly higher on hopes of a favourable announcement from the ECB later today. The Chinese market closed higher even as Goldman Sachs cut its forecast of economic growth for the Asian giant.


The Shanghai Composite gained 0.79%; the Hang Seng rose 0.34%; the Jakarta Composite surged 0.67%; the Nikkei 225 added 0.01% and the Seoul Composite climbed 0.38%. Among the losers, the KLSE Composite tanked 1.40%; the Straits Times fell 0.22% and the Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.55%.


At the time of writing, the key European indices were up between 0.58% and 1.30% and the US stock futures were in the green, indicating a positive opening for US stocks.


Back home, institutional investors were net sellers in the equities segment on Wednesday. Foreign institutional investors withdrew funds worth Rs188.25 crore while domestic institutional investors pulled out a total of Rs166.27 crore from stocks.


Mahindra Satyam (Satyam Computer Services) will provide IT services to Australian carrier Jetstar, the budget airliner of Qantas, under a new contractual arrangement. Jetstar will receive services such as desktop support services from the Indian provider, according to an Australian Financial Review report.  The stock jumped 2.76% to close at Rs98.70 on the NSE.


Kochi-based Federal Bank, which has seen high growth in its gold loan book in recent months, has introduced a new facility that offers an overdraft facility against pledged gold. “Easy Gold”, which the bank claims is the first such product in the country, offers a debit card with an overdraft facility using which customers can withdraw money or use loan amount through any ATM or PoS (point of sale) terminals.  The stock rose 0.15% to close at Rs402 on the NSE.


Banks’ net interest margin likely to remain under pressure, says Kotak Institutional Equities report

Retail deposit rates are likely to be a bit stickier compared to the earlier cycle, says a Kotak Institutional Equities report

There is a steady decline in market deposits (CD). Cuts in wholesale deposit rates on the back of improving liquidity conditions should benefit select wholesale banks. But NIM (net interest margin) would remain under pressure as pricing power shifts to borrowers. These are the observations made in a Kotak Institutional Equities report.
Retail deposit rates are likely to be a bit stickier compared to the earlier cycle as interest rates are unlikely to come down sharply. Further, RBI (Reserve Bank of India) has directed banks to have a sound policy on differential rates. The government has asked banks to reduce their dependence on bulk deposits. These arguments have been made in the Kotak report.
The Kotak report notes that most banks have started to reduce their wholesale deposit rates with liquidity conditions turning comfortable in recent weeks. Incremental CD ratio (since 6 April 2012) is at 16%, as credit demand is currently in a slack period, while growth in deposits has been strong. There has also been the positive impact from the recent cut in SLR (statutory liquidity ratio) of 1%. Select banks are still offering bulk deposits at a marginal premium over retail term deposits. On the other hand, the government has been insisting on banks to reduce the share of bulk deposits in the overall deposits.
For the banks, the deposit profile has significantly changed (primarily from urban markets, non-individual in nature who are interest-rate sensitive with high degree of awareness of alternate instruments) making it a challenging exercise to mobilize/ retain them. Banks are yet to cut retail term deposit rates materially despite the three month CD currently at 8.4% (10.7% in March 2012 and 9.1% in June 2012). These observations in the banking sector are also made by the Kotak report.
Kotak’s analysts believe that the decline in wholesale rates is likely to benefit Andhra Bank, Central Bank, Corporation Bank, IOB, OBC, UCO and Vijaya Bank, among public banks, and Yes Bank and IndusInd Bank among private banks. High CASA ratio banks like SBI and HDFC Bank are unlikely to be benefitted in the current phase.
NIM is likely to remain under pressure; and Basel-III guidelines and provisions can act as a floor, according to the analysts. The report states that  NIM is likely to remain under pressure in FY13-14E as revenue growth is expected to slow down (13% CAGR) on the back of slower demand for credit (14% CAGR) and NIM compression (about 20 bps) as pricing power shifts to borrowers. Lending spreads, especially for public banks, are at a near-term high (4% as of FY12). Kotak expects a compression of about 40 bps, going forward in FY12-14E. Private banks are likely to report stable performance as NIM is likely to improve for ICICI Bank and mid-tier private banks like Yes Bank and IndusInd Bank.
However, the Kotak report doesn’t expect NIM to compress sharply (similar to FY09-10) for two reasons: (1) Basel-III guidelines require banks to shore up core equity which would require higher internal generation of capital, and (2) overall provisioning environment will remain at elevated levels as banks make higher provisions for fresh slippages. Indian banks make about 70% of their overall revenues from NII (Net Interest Income), as contribution from fee business and treasury income is unlikely to change materially.


IDBI too reduces interest rates on home loans

IDBI has also joined the race as banks have started reducing interest rates after the finance...

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